Aug 11, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; NFL: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Flynn (15) passes against the Tennessee Titans at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Per Mike Silver of Yahoo! Sports, the Jacksonville Jaguars no longer have interest in Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Flynn.

“@tealtalk: @mikesilver Can you give a little more info about the Jags non-interest in Flynn?” They don’t want him to be their quarterback

— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) March 28, 2013

For those of us that didn’t think the trade was going to go through, this makes sense.  For those of us that desperately hoped there could be a quarterback in Jacksonville to push Blaine Gabbert, I guess we’ll have to wait a little bit.  General Manager Dave Caldwell has said he will add a quarterback or two to the open competition this offseason, but as of now only Gabbert and Chad Henne remain on the roster.  Caldwell has said an emphasis in building the team will be placed on the NFL Draft and college free agency, so it may be that the team is waiting until then.

There has been a lot of speculation that the Jaguars will go with a quarterback early in the draft, even with the other major holes on the roster.  I think that it makes sense to bring in a guy that Caldwell believes can be “the guy” but if there isn’t someone he believes to be that guy, the team will likely wait.

- Luke N. Sims

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Dec 9, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Flynn (15) throws a pass against the Arizona Cardinals at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks defeated the Cardinals 58-0. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Hold on Seattle Seahawks fans, you aren’t unloading your high-priced backup quarterback on the Jacksonville Jaguars so quickly.  As good as Matt Flynn has been in his (very) limited time on the field, he is a high-priced backup who had his  imminent starting job taken away from him by a third-round rookie last offseason.  Russell Wilson is good, really good, but to think that teams will part with something as high as a second or third round pick for Flynn after he was outplayed by an undersized quarterback may be a little wishful.

Flynn’s market value was never higher than following the 2011 season when he posted ridiculous numbers against the Detroit Lions in one game.  He leveraged that into a 3-year, $19 million deal with $10 million guaranteed.  That’s all well and good for Flynn and the Seahawks, when they thought he would be their starter, but for a team that is completely overhauling their roster, like the Jaguars, that’s a chunk of change they may turn their nose up at.  Flynn’s value is not nearly as high as it was a year ago now that he has spent a season warming the bench.

Unless the Jaguars can get Flynn to restructure his deal, a trade for him seems unlikely.  The Jaguars do have the cap room to take Flynn and be fine signing drafted players and college free agents later, but he would still be an expensive option since there is no guarantee he beats out Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne, and there is even less guarantee that he will do a better job starting.  Zain Gowani did a brilliant rundown on whether Flynn would fit with and help the Jaguars, check it out for more.

But it isn’t just Flynn’s inflated contract that will deter the Jaguars.

Trading for Flynn would cost the Jaguars the opportunity of bringing in their own young, cheap player in the draft and possibly having that player start – maybe even at quarterback.  General manager Dave Caldwell has been adement about building through the draft and finding value free agents.  Flynn is not a free agent, takes away a pick in the draft, and is more expensive than he is worth.  None of those are things that make him a viable option for the Jaguars at this point in their rebuild.  If Flynn does command the value of a second or third round pick, the Jaguars may be better off finding a player who can fill a need immediately for the team.  If his value slips to a fifth or something more similar, maybe the Jags start to think about it.

There has been contact and the Jaguars are interested, but nothing is off the table for the Jags at this point.  Unfortunately I don’t see the team moving on Flynn this season, especially since acquiring him is an uncertain thing and could potentially limit the extent of a foundation that could be laid while the team overhauls the roster.  The Jaguars are reportedly interested, but how far will their interest carry them?

- Luke N. Sims

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You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

Getting a QB: Draft or Trade? Source: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s turn back the page a few years.  Matt Flynn came out of LSU as a one-year starter (playing behind the worst NFL bust in history for much of his college career).  Flynn’s measurables and college production made him a 7^th round pick by the Green Bay Packers.  Flynn showed some real polish despite starting for less than a year at quarterback, flashing a strong ability to read through progressions, calmly feel a pass rush, and throw a very accurate short-intermediate ball.  However, his lack of experience and his measurables made Flynn a non-ideal prospect, especially given his just-adequate height, moderate arm strength, and inconsistent deep ball.   His NFL comparison, Ryan Fitzpatrick, seems like a good one, given what we’ve heard of Flynn’s skills thus far.

Fast forwarding to the 2012 offseason, Flynn only had a few more games as a starting quarterback to add to his resume.  The last of these games, however, was one that made Flynn the money that he’s receiving today.  His 480 yard, 6 touchdown day in Week 17 of 2011 made people wonder how good Matt Flynn could be.  According to Football Outsiders, basically every quarterback in NFL history that has had a game about as good as Flynn’s has been a Pro Bowler during their careers.  Their analysis of 15 quarterbacks, ranging from all-time greats like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning to moderately-high achievers, like Daunte Culpepper, Matt Hasselbeck, and Marc Bulger led Football Outsiders to declare that Flynn’s ceiling was “a Hall of Famer”, while his floor was “at least close to a Pro Bowl player”.  In their opinion, “It was only one game, but the simple fact is that mediocre quarterbacks are almost never that good”.

The original Matty Ice. If that’s how the future will play out for another Matt (Flynn), all in all, that’s not too shabby. Source: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

Greg Cosell of NFL Films did some work on Flynn during the 2012 offseason and determined that Flynn “can be a successful NFL starter”, but is “a player that needs to be coached and managed to maximize the skills he possesses… [as it is] for 80-90% of [NFL] quarterbacks”.  Cosell further reports, “Flynn in his rightful role [can be] an efficient passer in a multi-dimensional passing game in which the scheme rules, not the quarterback”.  In other words, Cosell doesn’t quite agree with Football Outsiders that Flynn’s floor is close to a Pro Bowler.  However, he believes that Flynn can get there in the right system.  A more optimistic scouting report was done over at Bleacher Report last offseason.  The writer grades Flynn using a system used to grade quarterback prospects coming out of the draft, giving him a grade of 8.9 which suggests that Flynn will become one of the best at his position.  While the grading scale used is highly subjective, the article does get one thing very right.  The author declares, “While Flynn isn’t a rookie, he’s about as close as you can get.”  For all of those Jaguars fans that think Blaine Gabbert needs some more time and experience to prove his worth (myself being among them), Flynn has much less college and NFL experience than Gabbert does, despite being  quite a few years older.

Overall, Flynn has thrown 141 NFL pass attempts (about 3-4 games worth) and has completed about 62% of his passes.  He’s thrown 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions for a quarterback rating of 92.0.  If he achieved similar numbers when throwing 10x as many passes, Flynn would be a highly coveted free agent.  But the truth is, he’s got less than one full season of college and NFL football starting experience under his belt.  If that’s the case, why are we still talking about him? What makes him any different than the Matt Cassels, Kevin Kolbs, and AJ Feelys of the world?  Well, in the two games he has started, he’s looked incredible: 81 attempts for 731 yards with a 68% completion percentage, 9 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.   The fact of the matter is, QB is such a scarce position that teams are willing to look anywhere to find them.  Guys like Doug Flutie, Kurt Warner, and even Tom Brady are prime examples of this.  While those players are most certainly exceptions rather than the rule, when a backup quarterback puts up numbers like those, teams take notice.  And why shouldn’t they?  Teams take fliers on quarterbacks all the time – and often give up tremendous value in the process.  Blaine Gabbert is a prime example of this – he was somewhat of a project at quarterback that cost a 1^st and 2^nd round pick to draft.  Why not take a flier on a later round guy – especially one who has shown success in albeit limited NFL action.  The risk/reward on a guy like Flynn is quite high, depending on the price.  Which brings us to our next question – what is the price on Flynn?

Seahawks fanblog FieldGulls suggests that the Seahawks should be able to get a 2^nd rounder at best and a 4^th rounder at worst for Flynn, with the expectation that the Seahawks will deal Flynn for a 3^rd rounder.  I think that’s a pretty fair assessment of Flynn’s market value.  The real question will be whether the Jaguars will be willing to give up a top 70 pick for Flynn in a draft class that’s supposed to be incredibly deep.  Being a team with so many holes that’s likely changing schemes on offense and defense, the Jaguars need all the draft picks they can get.  That being said, if Bradley and co. saw something in Flynn that made them think he’s something special, there’s likely no better way to use a mid-round pick.  At the end of the day, the Jaguars will likely grade Flynn the way they grade most players in the NFL draft, and assess his value amongst the other players they have given a third round grade on.  With such little game tape on Matt Flynn, the Jaguars are lucky to have some significant insight on his future prospects as a quarterback in the NFL.  Perhaps the chips are finally falling into place for Jacksonville’s favorite football team.

– Zain Gowani