Training camp starts THIS WEEK. That was fast wasn’t it? This is what separates the men from the mice in this intense Jacksonville heat. Everyone picks an underdog to pull for, and the foundation for this season’s team will begin to be put in place this week. Excited yet?

The obvious part of training camp is training camp battles. The fusion of incumbent starters, back-ups, role players, recently acquired free agents, and rookies all come together to duke it out for a position on the roster. The obvious battles (ie. wide receiver) will be heavily watched.  I’m taking the time this week to single out three battles that I just can’t wait to see.

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Fullback: Greg Jones vs. Naufahu Tahi vs. Brock Bolen

Don’t be deceived. This will still be a run heavy offense, or at least I hope it is. Greg Jones is a staple on this football team and the community. He’s been with the team since 2004 and has blocked for both Fred Taylor and MJD…that’s some pretty nice company. Brock Bolen has been solid as a key reserve and special teamer, and during the offseason Tahi joined the team. Tahi has been with the Vikings since 2006 meaning he has some pretty good company as well having blocked for Adrian Peterson. The acquisiton of Tahi shows me that the front office could in fact be exploring a less expensive option. Or who knows? Maybe Bolen shows more in camp than both of them. This team isn’t afraid to carry two fullbacks meaning come the season opener one will no longer be sporting the black and teal.

Cornerback: The Field

The top three spots are locked up. Cox, Ross, and Mathis will be seeing the field a lot in 2012, but do we want a repeat of 2011 when both starting corners go down and the other guys backing those spots aren’t ready?

This team has some pretty good young corners who simply just need more experience.

- I’ve been a of Kevin Rutland ever since he made the team as a UDFA last season. I liked what I saw from him in spot duty. He even recorded an interception.

- Ashton Youboty is a seasoned veteran who spent five years in Buffalo. I like his experience, but I think he’s gotten as good as he’s going to get.

- William Middleton is kind of our jack-of-all-trades cornerback. He can play the nickel and plays on all four special teams units. That could play in his favor when the final cuts roll around.

Mandatory Credit: Fernando Medina-US PRESSWIRE

- Mike Harris has quite the uphill climb to unseat one of these guys, but if he has a higher ceiling look for him to really push Rutland.

After those four corners in particular we have a couple of UDFAs in Antwan Blake and Antonio Dennard and recently acquired Reggie Corner from Buffalo. Next man up.

Defensive Line: D-Line rotation

Ok, much like the secondary we know who our starters are. Mincey, Alualu, Knighton, and Branch (hopefully). But what about the overall rotation?

- How healthy are D’Anthony Smith and Austen Lane? Is the clock ticking with these guys?

- Will we see more in Aaron Morgan’s development?

- John Chick sure did look very good at times last year…I’d definitely like to see more of him in the mix.

- Anyone else look into Jeris Pendleton’s story? How can you NOT pull for this football player?

Anyone out there think Branch will start? I do.

I’d like to spark some debate. What battles are you looking forward to, and you can’t say wide receiver! Anyone out there going to the scrimmage next week? I’ll be on vacation and will be attending practices when I can. Anyways, let’s get it goin’ fellas! Anyone on the roster who you hope is gone in 2012??? Anyone you think will surprise us??? Surprise cuts??? Post in the comments section!

-David R. Johns

May 6, 2012; Jacksonville FL, USA; The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive unit works out during rookie mini camp at Florida Blue Health

Fast forward to 2011, the Jaguars made bigger moves to the back seven of the defense in Free Agency by scooping up players Paul Posluszny, Dawan Landry and Clint Session to bulk up their defense. They were also able to secure Dwight Lowery and Drew Coleman, whose contributions made the Jaguars the 6th rated defense in the league. Looking forward to the 2012-2013 season, the Jags have acquired more talent to climb the ladder into top 5 contention.

Defensive line coach, and avid screamer Joe Cullen was hired to improve the defense line, and for two seasons, he has. From 26 sacks in 2010 to 31 sacks in 2011, the arrow only points up with the talent in the Jaguars locker room. In this year’s draft, the first defensive player who will help the Jags defense reach elite status was Andre Branch with the 38th pick. With him, the Jaguars are hoping they have finally found their missing piece at defensive end. If his pass rushing talent translates well at the pro level, he will give the Jags what they’ve longed for since the line included the names Reggie Hayward and Paul Spicer. Andre will most definitely start opposite Jeremy Mincey who has been a bright spot at the position. Depth includes Austen Lane and John Chick who have proven to be capable backups, but have yet to reach their potential.

Defensive Tackle is another position that looks improved this season with plenty of competitive depth, something all teams strive for. Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu will most likely return as starters, unless the team believes Knighton requires more time to heal from and eye injury suffered this offseason. The depth at this position is incredible with players like C.J. Mosley, and D’Anthony Smith and newly acquired Jeris Pendleton.

July 28 2011; Jacksonville FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars guard Brandon Harper (64) tries to block defensive tackle D

D’Anthony Smith is heading into his third season as a rookie, never officially playing in a regular season game due to injuries suffered in the preseason. I look at Smith like a player drafted in the NHL or MLB. He was drafted, but has not yet played in the majors. The NFL does not have farm teams, but Smith has had the playbook, the weight room and access to coaches as well other assets during his recovery, which makes him a more refined player heading into his first real year.

Last but not least in Jeris Pendleton who was taken in the 7th round as an insurance policy. Pendleton is not your average rookie as he, like Brandon Weeden, is 28 years old. However, unlike Weeden, Pendleton is not being asked to start at the most difficult position on the field which may take years to develop. Pendleton with be in the rotation, and should be able to stop the run well with his size and strength. He may be years older than the average NFL rookie, but he is a grown man with strength to plug up the middle.

While the Jaguars are not ever seen as a real force to be reckoned with, they’re defensive play spoke volumes despite their massive injury reserve list. The Jaguars may have finished 6th overall in defense last season, but with new additions and a demanding coach, they will improve.

- Antonio Furgiuele

Although most people in the Jaguars organization, along with the media and the Jaguars’ fans, would agree that Blaine Gabbert’s growth is the biggest need for the Jaguars this year, I decided to start with the longest need we’ve had in recent history: a pass rush.  Getting a pass rush has been The Big Need for the last four years or so.  Since the infamous draft of 2008, the Jagaurs have swung and missed on defensive ends, which undoubtedly played a role in the Jaguars’ decision to draft DE Andre Branch and spend $27 million re-signing Jeremy Mincey, who’s never had more than last season’s eight sacks in his six year career.

Last year, the Jaguars’ pass rush had been more productive than it had in recent years, but the 31 sacks they accumulated still left them tied for 25^th in the league, along with defensive bottom dwellers like Carolina and Indianapolis.  A team that ended up ranked 5^th in defensive efficiency has no business being so far down the rankings in such an important defensive statistic.   Even though sack numbers don’t tell the whole story about effective a team’s pass rush is, as the Jaguars’ GM, staff, and even fans have pointed out at various times the last couple seasons, it seemed pretty curious to me that a team that improved so much (32^nd in defensive efficiency in 2010 to 5^th in 2011; 5^th in both pass and rush defense efficiency!!!) showed such little relative improvement in the sack department.  Just like any other defensive play, sacks are nowhere near isolated.  They depend on the run-stopping, coverage, sub-packaging, etc. that form the foundation of any great defense.  Don’t they?

We're depending on you, Andre Branch. Source: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

As it turns out, seemingly they do.  And while statistics don’t always flat out lie, in cases like this they can be very misleading.  While the Jaguars were by no means an elite pass-rushing group (as any tuned-in Jaguars fan could tell you), the “Rushmen” were certainly better than a simple sack number can give them credit for.  Football Outsiders (compilers of the defensive efficiency rankings hyperlinked above) dug deeper to produce a statistic that represented a team’s pass rush more accurately: adjusted sack rate.

What is the sack rate adjusted for, you may ask.  Pretty important things actually.  How about strength of schedule – strength of an opponent’s ability to pass protect?  Playing Tennessee twice a year, the best pass-protecting team in 2011, probably turned a few would-be-sacks into pressures.  What else does it account for?  Intentional grounding penalties, pass attempts, down, and distance.  As you might imagine, sacks go up on 3^rd downs, especially on 3^rd and longs.  Thus, an accurate statistic needs to adjust for the number of 3^rd downs a team faces, as well as the distance before a first down.

How do the Jaguars fare in adjusted sack rate?  Not too badly actually.  Our adjusted sack rate was 7.2%, 13^th in the league, and 0.4% higher than the next team on the list, the concussion-specialist Steelers (comparatively, we were only 0.4% lower than the 7^th ranked team, suggesting we probably held up the end of the second tier of teams with regards to sack-rate.  For more details, click the second hyperlink.).  This is up from our 22^nd ranking last year at 5.8% – that rate would’ve left us at 26^th this year.  So yeah, the Jaguars didn’t get better in every single defensive category except sacks; they got better with regards to sacks too.  Much better.  And considering the injuries we faced on the defensive line (Roth, Chick, Alualu, Lane…) and in the secondary (Mathis, Cox, etc. etc. etc.), that is a pretty impressive improvement.

Come back John Chick! You weren't that bad! Source: Phil Sears, US Presswire

How come we ended up ranked 25^th in sacks last year?  One major component was the pass protecting quality of the opponents we faced.  I took the relative pass protection rankings of the opponents we faced in 2011-2012 and their average rank came out to 12.9; so, instead of rushing the 16^th ranked team in terms of pass protection (if our schedule was “average”), our defensive line was rushing against the 13^th ranked team in terms of pass protection.  But this is still an overestimate, because it uses relative ranks instead of absolute numbers.  So I recalculated using adjusted-sack rates.  And you know what?  It turns out our D-lines schedule was even more difficult.         The average adjusted-sacks-allowed rates of our opponents last year was 5.78%, a number which fits squarely between the 9^th and 10^th best pass protecting teams.  So it’s like our D-line was facing the 9.5^th best pass protecting team all year (as opposed to the 16^th, if they  had an “average” schedule).

Given these numbers, and the players we’ve acquired and gotten back from injury, let’s look towards 2012-2013 and try to find a realistic goal might be.  If we stay healthy this year, I think we can reach the top of the second tier of adjusted sack rates (7.6-7.8%), which would represent a healthy jump (0.4-0.6%) in pass rush.  A 0.4% to 0.6% boost in sacks would give us between 32 and 33 sacks on the year next year – which would allow us to jump from 25^th in the sack rankings to 24^th.  Clearly not impressive.  But remember, a 0.4-0.6% boost would be applied to adjusted sack rate, not total sack numbers.  This boost should increase our total sack numbers, but may not depending upon the opponents we face and the other such variables it takes into account.  Just for fun, let’s try to calculate what the Jaguars’ sack number would look like if our adjusted sack rate remained constant (7.2%).  If the adjusted sack rate remains constant and if there’s an inverse linear relationship between opponent pass protection (as a function of adjust-sacks-allowed rate) and total number of sacks a D-line will produce, the number of sacks the Jaguars should produce next year can be estimated by the pass protecting abilities of their opponents, assuming all other variables like intentional grounding penalties and total number of pass plays run are relatively constant.  A quick calculation of our 2012-2013 opponents’ adjust-sacks-allowed rates and relative ranks shows that next year, the average team we’ll face will have a relative rank of 15.3, and an adjusted-sacks-allowed rate of 6.5, which corresponds to a team ranked just between 16^th and 17^th in terms of pass-protecting abilities.  Using that in conjunction with our adjusted-sack rate, as a function of opponent adjusted-sacks-allowed rate in 2011-2012, our sack rate would be 8.15% – top 5 in the league and just at the bottom of the first tier of defensive behemoths that include the Eagles, the Ravens, and the Vikings!  Obviously, this makes a number of assumptions, but it shows two things: 1. Our defense rushed the passer (in terms of sack production) at a way better rate than what we may have thought… and 2. With a slightly easier to rush schedule next season, we may see another boost in sack  numbers!

Watch out world – Here come the Jaguar Rushmen!

– Zain Gowani