In fact, based on a poll by FOX Sports, the Jaguars’ Mike Mularkey will have the least success out of Tampa Bay’s Greg Schiano, Miami’s Joe Philbin, Indianapolis’ Chuck Pagano, and Oakland’s Dennis Allen.  Yes, you read that right.  Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and Miami are all expected (based on almost 3,000 votes) to have more success than Mike Mularkey.

This is a man who will quietly make a splash in 2012. Source: US-Presswire

Despite fielding a top ten defense and returning almost every starter from the defense and the defensive coordinator, Mike Mularkey is only expected to have the most success out of the group by 10% of voters.  What does Indy have that gives them an edge at 11%?  Does Andrew Luck really turn an entire team into winners?  While the season will give us a true answer, I’m willing to say “no” for right now.

What about Miami?  They took third place in the voting with 22% (considerably higher than the two AFC South teams with new coaches).  Joe Philbin ran a good offense in Green Bay, but most of it is Mike McCarthy’s brain child.  Is Philbin going to be able to turn Ryan Tannehill into Aaron Rodgers?  Will he even end up looking like Matt Flynn?  Despite the questions about Miami’s coaching staff (and I like Joe Philbin, though question what he did and what McCarthy did in Green Bay), the strength of the roster is truly minimal.  We all know that Jacksonville is the 32nd most popular franchise, it’s pretty obvious Miami has some people still hoping for the next Dan Marino.

Dennis Allen in Oakland pulled in second place with 27% of the vote to be the most successful first-year head coach in 2012.  Of the coaches outside of Mike Mularkey (who I truly do think could be the most successful) I think that the situation in Oakland could translate into success.  Darren McFadden is good, really good; a resurgent Carson Palmer would be a great boon to the new coach; and no longer having Al Davis hanging over everyone like Johnny Raincloud will free up some open thinking and new approaches to the game.  Beyond that though, I don’t have a lot of hope for Allen.  While Davis won’t be around to fire him after his first five games, the culture in Oakland does not seem too far removed from him the Al Davis era.

Seriously, I don't even know if a guy can look any more solid than Schiano. Source: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Why Greg Schiano of Tampa Bay is expected to be the most successful first-year head coach makes a bit more sense to me.  Apparently 30% of the people polled agree.  Of the coaches, I think that Schiano has the best attitude (sorry Mularkey).  I think he says the right things, has the right approach to the game, knows how to manage his team well, etc. But I don’t think he knows how to win on the NFL level.  The guy knows how to motivate and lead, but what about his schemes?  What about his coordinators?  What about his roster?  Coming into Tampa Bay, I think that Schiano’s roster is the best of the five head coaches.  I’m not a Josh Freeman fan, but the young talent on the team is bubbling up to the surface quickly.  The Bucs made some big splashes in free agency, and I think that Schiano is the right man to lead them.  However, until he starts winning I’m not willing to put all of my eggs in his basket.

While I’m a Mularkey fan and think that he has the best shot to make a move toward being the most successful (that Jaguars defense is tough to argue with), look for Schiano to share in some of that glory as well.  I fully expect Miami to be mediocre (yes, even with Chad Ochocino), the Colts to look like they are beginning to rebuild because they are, and the Raiders will probably continue to be the same Raiders we’ve seen since they lost the Super Bowl to the Bucs.

Expect a few more people to be jumping onto the Black and Teal bandwagon during the 2012 season.  And if another Florida franchise not from Miami does pretty well, don’t be shocked too much.

- Luke N. Sims

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You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

Source: US-Presswire

With HBO’s Hard Knocks featuring the Miami Dolphins this coming season, ex-Jaguars quarterback David Garrard will be battling it out with Matt Moore and rookie 8th pick Ryan Tannehill for the starting quarterback job in Miami.  Garrard has considerably more experience than Moore and is more polished than Tannehill.  With ex-Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin taking over the head coaching job in Miami, whomever can run a pass-first offense the best will get the nod.

Garrard was well liked during his four years starting for the Jaguars from 2007-2010.  His outstanding play in the 2007 season and development in 2008 had hope for the Jaguars and helped open the window for playoff success.  Unfortunately the window did not last long.  Garrard’s up and down play did not help, especially during the 2009 and 2010 seasons.

Garrard was always a stand up act with the Jaguars and could provide great guidance for the young quarterbacks in Miami, no matter whether he gets the starting job or not.  Blaine Gabbert could have done with more veteran guidance in his first season starting this past year, but Garrard was cut a week before the season started and Luke McCown did little more than provide polish in practice.

As Hard Knocks follows the inevitable quarterback battle developing in Miami, it will be fun to see the next stage in Garrard’s career develop.  I wish him all the best as he battles off the younger competitors- even when the Dolphins play the Jaguars on December 16th.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

Right now, Peyton Manning is all the rage.  Everybody from the Chiefs to the Titans have been linked to going after the ex-Indy quarterback.  Lost amid the chatter is steal of a quarterback in Matt Flynn.

Wait, did I just say steal?  Isn’t he going to command a ton of money during the offseason with his great play this year?  Isn’t he going to be the second coming of Aaron Rodgers but in a different uniform?  I even heard that he was the greatest quarterback to ever suit up not named Kurt Warner.

Oh wait, yes that is the sarcasm font I’m using.

How's it going over in Arizona Kevin? Not well? Shocker. Source: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Flynn is this season’s hottest quarterback commodity.  Yes, this is including Peyton Manning.  Manning is an injured future Hall of Famer approaching the end of his career.  Matt Flynn is a potentially brilliant young quarterback.  Flynn is this year’s Kevin Kolb.  Flynn is this year’s Matt Cassel.

What am I saying?

I’m saying Matt Flynn isn’t quite as glorious as he’s made out to be.

While Flynn put up some gaudy numbers against the Lions in the final game of the 2011 regular season (31-44, 480 yards, six touchdowns, one pick), he is a high level backup.  Rarely, very rarely, do 7th round picks suddenly become perfectly groomed starting quarterbacks.

Remember when Matt Cassel passed for almost 3,700 yards in 2008 and then became a mediocre quarterback in Kansas City?  Yeah, me too.  Remember Kevin Kolb coming to Arizona to become Kurt Warner x2?  Then he posted a 3-6 record in the nine games he started?

If I can think of the problems with other second string wonders, you bet that other teams are thinking the same thing about Matt Flynn.  Joe Philbin, ex-Packers Offensive Coordinator turned Head Coach in Miami, is looking hard at Peyton Manning.  This is after he orchestrated the brilliant 2011 performance from Matt Flynn.  That should be saying wonders to the rest of the league.

But what does this mean for the Jaguars?

It means that the Jags could get a mediocre starting level quarterback or a very high level backup in Matt Flynn.  It means Gene Smith can snatch up a high motor guy that can challenge Blaine Gabbert for the starting position.

Less of this, more of beating out Matt Flynn. Source: Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

Gabbert is a competitor.  If Gene Smith goes out and grabs a “hot” QB off the market and tells Gabbert that it’s still his job to lose, you bet your a$$ that Gabbert will step up his game to hold his spot.  And if Gabbert regresses heavily (hey, it could happen) the Jags know that they now have a backup that can step in and play in real game time (Sorry Luke McCown, but you never could).

Will Matt Flynn be costly?  Absolutely.  Are there other holes to fill on the roster?  Absolutely.  But is it worth the investment to develop Blaine Gabbert into the quarterback we all hope he becomes?  Absolutely.

The Jags need a solid backup to push Gabbert, and there aren’t very many on the market.  A journeyman backup makes sense but would provide a lot of pressure and give the appearance that the Jags aren’t satisfied in the #10 selection from last year’s draft and need a safety net.

The Jags don’t need a safety net, they need a winning game plan.  It’s time to stop thinking about how we can stop bad things from happening and instead look to see what can be done to make sure the Jags are always on the winning side of the game.

Matt Flynn is security and progress.  It’s a win-win investment.  He’ll push Gabbert for a year or two, then he’ll run off to lead the Chiefs when they get tired of Cassel.

I think it makes sense, but I’m just spitballing.  Of course, Flynn will want a starting job.  So much for my brainstorm.

- Luke N. Sims