It will be important for the Jaguars to get out ahead early in order to force Indy to throw the ball.  The Bears demonstrated that Luck can be manipulated if he is forced into throwing to save the game.  The Jaguars do not want to do what the Vikings did and let the offense balance and become comfortable – that is a sure way for Luck to gain confidence and put up some big numbers.  It will be difficult to do if Derek Cox (probable) sits out or underperforms, but the corners need to blanket the receivers all day and the linebackers need to find a way to cover two very talented Colts tight ends.  Without Daryl Smith in for the third straight game the Jaguars may have to incorporate some more scheming to create mismatches in favor of the defense, it will be curious to see if defensive coordinator Mel Tucker adapts the responsibilities of the positions in order to compensate for deficiencies.  If Tucker decides to not add more scheming to his base 4-3 then the Colts may embarras the linebackers like the Vikings and the Texans did.

Bosworth could continue to be a liability if he doesn’t find a second gear soon.  Source: Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

The defense also needs to swarm to the ball.  The ability to gets hats to the ball has been the strength of the defense under Tucker during his tenure.  Unfortunately this is largely reliant on linebacker play; Kyle Bosworth and Russell Allen have been getting to the ball just a little too late.  It will be important for the defense to play fast and really be on top of the ball if they hope to limit the big gains on screens, middle, and underneath throws that the Texans and Vikings capitalized on.  In a league that is relying more on the tight end this current defense is ripe to be exploited unless they play out of their minds.  I, unfortunately, don’t think Bosworth has that ability though I do think that Allen (team leader in tackles) has another level he could get to.

While the corners and linebackers need to up their game to be effective it may ultimately be the use of safeties Dawan Landry and Dwight Lowery that most affect how the defense will fare against Luck and company.  Landry and Lowery are performing as the best unit on the defense through two games.  Landry (third highest tackles on team) has been all over the field during the first couple games – as he should be – and can really affect the play of those he is expected to cover or the responsibilities he has.  If he is used to cover Reggie Wayne a bit more or move up to help the linebackers in the middle, he could really affect the game.  Similarly, Lowery could be influential in stymying the running game by providing a strong presence that can help set an edge if one of the defensive ends struggles or to help fill gaps where Bosworth has been failing in his responsibilities.

While the defense can’t control jumping out early against the Colts, their ability to limit the offense will help the offense slowly gain ground.  This defense is not a turnover generating machine like some other defenses and rather than trying to focus on that the team should play to its strength: bend but don’t break.  The unit allowed too many points against the Texans and that dictated the way the offense could play.  The defense must assert itself early if it hopes to give the offense a chance at building an early lead and thus making the defense’s job easier by forcing some hasty decisions and mistakes from the young Andrew Luck.

- Luke N. Sims

So, when they were all talking about how long the starters would be playing in the last preseason game, it came as no shock that the new coaches wanted to see more of what their players could do.  Kubiak’s response: “There may be a couple [starters] that play. Maybe a few, but for the most part, no.”  Knowing your own players front and back is a big benefit heading into the season.  While not the best head coach the world has ever seen, Kubiak understands his players and his team.  He knows how it’s going to work and can put it all together in his head with just a few new pieces each year.

The new coaches don’t have that luxury.

When speaking about how long the starters would play, Munchak and Pagano both seemed unsure of their plans.  ”I think we’ll play the offensive guys more than the defensive guys, I would think,” said Munchak.  Pagano stated, “We haven’t haven’t made a decision on that yet…looking at the health of our football team to try and make that decision.”  You can almost imagine hesitation and on their faces as they speak.  You can practically see the second guessing in their heads as they contemplate what to do in the final preseason game.

Mularkey wasn’t much better, but probably should be more relaxed since he used to lead training camp and the preseason as the head coach of the Bills.  He wants to see a good drive.  It all depends on the drives for him. “If it’s a 10-, 12-play drive I may consider taking them out. If it’s not and we have a three-, four-, five-play drive you’ll probably see them again,” he said while referring to both the offense and the defense.  But at least he has a plan.

Maybe it’s just being coy with reporters or not wanting to display confidence, but the less experienced AFC South coaches just aren’t displaying the kind of decisive decision making your really look in the man leading your team.  The man making decisions.

I’m not a Gark Kubiak fan, but you’ve got to hand it to him – he looks mighty prepared in comparison to his competition.  When you are able to sit back and watch the opposition squabble and attempt to plan, you’ve got an advantage….confidence.

- Luke N. Sims

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A linchpin is something that is necessary to something or someone else.  It is difficult or impossible to live without the linchpin in an organization.  Entire theories of economic, organizational, and even global collapse can be extrapolated from linchpin theory.

I don't know how he did it, but somehow he made us all overlook that defense every year. Source: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Some linchpins are obvious.  Peyton Manning made Indianapolis a perennial Super Bowl contender and made even terrible defense look good.  Michael Vick during his tenure with Atlanta had the entire team thrust on his shoulders and it all came crashing down when he was arrested for dog fighting.

When talking about linchpins it is important to differentiate between an absolutely vital part of a team and a leader.  Leaders are incredibly important and difficult to live without.  Clay Matthews is the leader of the Packers defense, becoming the face of the Packers D over the last few years.  Similarly, Ray Lewis in Baltimore is the leader of the defense (some would say the whole team) and brings experience and bravado to each game.  Neither of these two men are vital to the success of their respective teams though.  If Matthews went down, he would be replaced by another linebacker and more attention would be put on A.J. Hawk and Charles Woodson as leaders.  Lewis has lost a step over the past few years but his leadership is still more valuable to the Ravens than his (slowly) declining play.

Some teams don’t have linchpins.  Instead they are teams that are a motley crew of “guys” who have yet to distinguish themselves from the pack.  There are leaders, there are faces of franchises, but none of them have made themselves absolutely vital to the success of the team.  Does Jacksonville have linchpins in their organization?  Who are the guys that could make that case?

Here again we have to make sure that we differentiate between who needs to step up and who is vital.  Blaine Gabbert needs to step up if the Jaguars are to be successful.  The receivers also need to step up.  The receivers nor Gabbert have proven themselves to be vital to the organization thus far though.

In the case of the 2012 Jaguars, I would argue that Brad Meester is the linchpin for the Jaguars heading into the season.

Aside from Meester’s vast experience and knowledge of the game, his skill level and leadership are also invaluable to the Jaguars.  Beyond that, if he goes down the Jaguars will have a very, very hard time being even remotely relevant.  The ripple effect of losing a center in the NFL is tremendous.  If the depth behind that starting center is limited then there is an even sharper decline.

Behind Meester, the Jaguars have John Estes and Mike Brewster.  While there has been talk recently of Estes (or even Brewster) overtaking Meester during the season and finally making the 35 year old redundant, the skill drop-off between Meester and his backups is far greater than imagined.  Of the 40 sacks Gabbert took last season, only 2.5 are attributed to Meester.  Beyond that, he has proven to be crucial to the running game.  He no longer has the speed and pure power to push into the second level of the defense as quickly as he used to, but he still has the skills to do it and to open holes.

The center position is crucial to the game of football and can make a huge diference on ever play.  Meester makes this even more important for the Jaguars with his continuously stellar play.

Who do you think is a linchpin for the Jaguars?  Anybody that could make the case?

- Luke N. Sims

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