Before we crown David Caldwell the savior of Jacksonville, we should all dust off the archives of 2009 and compare the Jaguars then and now:

Now there are some clear differences.  Caldwell’s team has a new coaching staff, ownership, and even logo and uniforms.  But Shad Khan isn’t going to step on the field any more than the Jags previous owner Wayne Weaver did.  The new logo isn’t going to catch any more touchdowns than the old one did.

While many differences are apparent, there are some similarities between the 2009 team and 2013 team.  Both drafted rookies expected to start immediately, which is always a gamble.  Both have a glaring weakness at pass rush.  Gene Smith chose to draft some secondary players and rely on previously drafted defensive ends Derek Harvey and Quinton Groves to improve.  David Caldwell Chose to draft secondary players and rely on previously drafted Andre Branch and recently acquired Jason Babin.

Did Gene’s plan work? Hell no.

Will David’s? Man, I hope so.

-Lionel Joel

Rashad Jennings – so much hope. Source: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Although Smith followed a “best available player” approach to drafting and was often able to match this ranking with positional need, ultimately too many of Smith’s picks simply didn’t work out.  Only 12 out of Smith’s 26 draft picks over the last four drafts remain on the roster, but 2/3 of those were drafted in the past two years and are likely still being evaluated.  Of the players that were cut, few made an impact on the Jaguars and even fewer, if any, have re-signed with another team and made an impact.  Even players that showed flashes of potential and momentarily excited the fan-base have become but an afterthought; this includes players such as Rashad Jennings, Mike Thomas, Zach Miller, Eben Britton, and others.

Some of the most promising players from Smith’s drafts are no longer with the Jaguars as of quite recently.  Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton and Derek Cox, who were taken back-to-back in 2009 and pegged as cornerstones of the Jaguars rebuild, left as free agents this offseason.  Mike Thomas, who was once envisioned as the Jaguars’ slot receiver and versatile offensive weapon for years to come, is now coming off of his first half-year with the Lions.  Yet, all these players showcased talent and potential during their time with the Jaguars, and despite their weaknesses (eg Cox’s predilection to injury or Pot Roast’s inability to consistently maintain weight), they were seen as key parts of the rebuilding process, much like Cecil Shorts III, Justin Blackon, and… Bryan Anger(?) are now.

Mike Thomas has his chance to be lifted up by Calvin Johnson. Source: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

When thinking about such players, it makes you wonder how much of their failure with the Jaguars was truly Smith’s fault as a drafter?  How much of it had to do with the team itself – the flux in coaching staff, the turmoil at the quarterback position, and the relative lack of veteran leadership on the team?  These may all be weaknesses of Smith as a manager, but not as a drafter.   Could these players have succeeded on a better team?  With more talent around them, more stable coaching philosophies, and more veteran leadership?  Instead of speculating on this, keep an eye out over the next year or two and see how those players end up doing, because each of them has a great second opportunity to succeed in the situation they’ve found themselves in – eg Knighton on a talented Bronco’s D-line and Thomas roaming free while coverages roll to Calvin Johnson’s side.

This is not to say that Gene Smith was a great drafter.  I think anytime you pick in the top 10 four straight years, you’re probably doing something wrong (though, to be fair, we were actually 16^th overall the year we traded up for Blaine).   He’s gotten sub-par play from every round of players that he’s picked – from the first rounders to the seventh rounders.  Whiffed picks like Chris Prosinski, Rod Isaac, and Larry Hart provided little inspiration to the Jaguar masses.   But how much of the drafting was actually his fault?  How much should we actually blame on injuries – Tyson Alualu, Will Rackley, D’Anthony Smith, Derek Cox, Terrance Knighton, Austen Lane, Eben Britton, Zach Miller, and Rashad Jennings all missed significant portions of seasons with major (and some, career-altering) injuries (of course, the corollary to that question is how many of those players were labeled as “injury prone” before they came into the NFL?).  What becomes Gene’s legacy if Blaine turns out to be a franchise quarterback, Blackmon and Shorts turn out to be the second coming of Thunder and Lightning, Will Rackley turns out to be the answer at guard, and Bryan Anger becomes the best punter of all time?  What about the ex-Jaguars?  What becomes of Gene’s legacy if Knighton, Cox, and Thomas all succeed at their new destinations?  The bottom line is, despite being an advocate for Smith’s firing, I don’t think we can truly evaluate Smith’s time with the Jaguars as a drafter until we see what the next few years brings.  He was below-average GM and likely a below-average drafter, but until we reach a consensus on the pieces we have right now, we won’t know how bad he actually was.  Hopefully by then, we won’t need to.  We’ll be looking ahead, not behind, with Caldwell and Bradley leading the charge – but it sure would be nice if Smith left us the parting gift of a franchise quarterback in Blaine Gabbert.

– Zain Gowani

Jan 18, 2013; Jacksonville FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars new general manager Dave Caldwell reacts at a press conference at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

It seems obvious, doesn’t it?  The new Jacksonville Jaguars’front office and head coach will have to break from the obviously failing ways of the past in order to be successful.  That’s the whole gist of the rebuild.  However, I was really struck at how bad the situation was when I was reading Pro Football Focus’ draft grades from 2008-2010.

The grades obviously don’t dwell on the two most recent draft years as those players have yet to pan out.  That said, the news from ex-GM Gene Smith’s early tenure (his best drafts) is bad.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with PFF’s draft grading system, it ranges from -2 to +2 with 0 being the norm or average of a player at a position.  Players fall at points of -2, -1.5, -1.0… and so on. For the -2s and +2s you need to have drafted either Ryan Leaf or Tom Brady, respectively.  The Jaguars don’t have anybody at either -2 or +2, but they have a whole jumble of mediocre to underperforming players.

April 27, 2012; Jacksonville FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars general manager Gene Smith during a press conference at EverBank Field to discuss first round draft pick Justin Blackmon (not pictured). Mandatory Credit: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

As discussed numerous times on B&T, the best pick for Gene Smith was easily his first-ever pick:  Eugene Monroe at number eight overall in 2009.  PFF agrees and grades him as the only +1 player for the Jags.  Smith’s other first round pick, Tyson Alualu, picked up a grade of -1.

Fortunately, the Jaguars from 2009-2010 only have three drafted players graded negatively.  This should bode well for them.  It doesn’t.

Looking at the grades PFF has given the Jags’ drafted players from ’09-’10, I would have expected more players to be graded negatively.  Though, as a fan, I expect the Jaguars to play hard and win games.  Losing is not factored into PFF’s grading system, so it fits that the players could have just been mediocre, resulting in losses.  This is what happened and was the major flaw behind Gene Smith’s approach as general manager.

Smith pursued “base hits” that were going to lift the Jaguars up out of mediocrity by providing depth and strong contributors.  He did this with players like Terrance Knighton, Derek Cox, and Austen Lane.  None of the players he drafted in ’09 or ’10 were players that could carry a game, however.  Even a talented left tackle like Monroe can only give the players behind him the opportunity to make plays.

The playmakers expected to make plays were all from the previous Shack Harris regime.  Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis were the big names for the Jaguars. Just two players, neither of which were a quarterback.  Rather than rectify this problem, the “base hit” approach that Smith utilized was not strong enough – and the level of play of these “base hits” wasn’t high enough – to create more playmakers and force teams to respect other parts of the game.

The “base hit” strategy should be used as a complement to a team full of playmakers.  It is not a strategy to rebuild a team.  At some point you need to find players that can change games and add them to your roster.  You need to go for the home run.  Base hits sound good, but in football you need to add top-notch talent more than average-above average talent if you want to keep getting better.

The new Jaguar regime understands this and new GM Dave Caldwell has noted that he is going to try and hit it out of the park every time.  In order to succeed the new regime must not get caught in the “base hit” mentality that pervaded the team for the past four years.  If the Julio Jones trade is an indication that Caldwell will not grow complacent and is always looking for players who can alter the game to add to the roster, then I trust that the Jaguars will continue to swing for the fences every time.

- Luke N. Sims

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