Will Arian Foster take the Rushing Title in 2012? Source: US-Presswire

While there will inevitably be someone who comes out of nowhere to put up some big numbers like Arian Foster has done, who really has a shot at taking home the title and being the “best running back” in 2012.  For purposes of discussion, the best running back will be defined as the most yards on the ground in a season (the same qualification for running backs to win the rushing title).

So, who will it be?  A rebounding Adrian Peterson?  A no longer disgruntled Chris Johnson?  How about Ben Tate rather than Foster?  Here are the top ten from last year:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew: 1,606 yards
2. Ray Rice: 1,364 yards
3. Michael Turner: 1,340 yards
4. LeSean McCoy: 1,309 yards
5. Arian Foster: 1,224 yards
6. Frank Gore: 1,211 yards
7. Marshawn Lynch: 1,204 yards
8. Willis McGahee: 1,199 yards
9. Steven Jackson: 1,145 yards
10. Ryan Matthews, 1,091 yards

Of the top ten from last year, five were in the top ten from 2010: Maurice Jones-Drew (5th), Ray Rice (10th), Michael Turner (3rd – talk about consistent!), Arian Foster (1st), and Steven Jackson (8th).  The players who didn’t repeat?  Adrian Peterson (6th), Jamaal Charles (2nd), Chris Johnson (4th), Rashard Mendenhall (7th), and Ahmad Bradshaw (9th).

Of the five who have repeated the past two years (some longer than that), I think it is safe to say that Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, and Michael Turner will be back in the top ten for 2012.  As much as I like Steven Jackson (and I like him a lot!) I don’t see him replicating his success in 2012 with a revamped offense, new head coach, and some serious wear and tear on his body (the guy averaged 20 attempts per game the past three seasons and has had injury issues).

Look for San Fran's Frank Gore to be Limited by Defenses as they make the Niners pass to beat them. Source: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

With the assumption that four of our top ten spots will be filled, who can we expect to join them?  From last year’s top ten, I find that the most probable returns for 2012 will be Ryan Matthews and LeSean McCoy.  McCoy has proven he will be a versatile threat on every down and he is featured in a lot of plays under Andy Reid.  Matthews will be forced into taking more handoffs with the departure of wide receiver Vincent Jackson to Tampa Bay and will carry a much bigger burden of the offense.  Matthews stepped it up last year by 21 yards per game and an increase of only two more attempts per game.  The guy is finally filling LaDainian Tomlinson’s shoes.

Right now, our list is sitting with six players on it.  All of whom have been in the top ten this past year.  Who gets the final four slots?  Who will round out the top ten in the competition for the rushing title?  For that, I turn my attention to the yards per attempt statistics for last year.  Of the running backs who are already in our six defined spots, none of them are in the top ten for yards per attempt (though the statistics do include quarterbacks Cam Newton and Tim Tebow).  Of the top ten in yards per attempt, two teams (Buffalo and Carolina) have two running backs in average yards per attempt.  C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson represent Buffalo, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart represent Carolina – as does Cam Newton.

I expect that the loads on both sides will continue to be split amongst multiple players, though if Williams is injured again – as his history suggests he may be – I fully expect that Stewart could slip into the top ten to round out the bottom.  And with Cam Newton focusing more on passing rather than running, look for Stewart’s attempts per game to increase. Unfortunately for Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, I don’t expect either of them to outdistance the other in 2012.  Especially with Spiller expected to have a very good year.  Both players will be successful, of this I have no doubt, but neither will be able to set such a pace that the team abandons its two-headed monster of a backfield.

Right now, this is how our top ten looks (with no rankings applied)

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster
• Michael Turner
• LeSean McCoy
• Ryan Matthews
• Jonathan Stewart

Nothing like a knee injury to make you want to succeed next year. Source: Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE

I think it is about time we took a look at Adrian Peterson.  Adrian Peterson injured himself in the 12th game of the season last year and is still working on coming back full force.  But in 12 games, he put up 970 yards.  That’s 80.8 yards per game (good enough for 8th on the list of yards per game).  Will AP be back in time for the start of the season?  Maybe.  But he’ll be back at some point.  And when he returns, he’ll be hungry.  If the guy doesn’t put up at least 1,000 yards in 2012 I’ll be shocked.  Just over 1,000 yards should be enough to put him in the top ten anyway.

See the next page to see who rounds out our top ten and who will take the rushing title!

               All 32 NFL teams consider themselves Super Bowl contenders in June.  The sun is shining, injuries are minimal, and holes have been filled from last year’s rosters that are the missing pieces in everyone’s journey to the big game.  Every playoff team is poised to go further and those that missed the playoffs have the pieces in place to make a charge at the division title.

The reason all teams have this outlook is that every season follows the same script.  There are always a few teams that ascend from the cellar to the penthouse and one or two unfortunate franchises whose heavenly expectations come crashing back to Earth.  This repetitive nature of the NFL is what makes it so great, because it isn’t what is going to happen but who it is going to happen to that piques so much interest.

Among the many roles that are filled by teams each season, the “picked to go 5-11 team that finishes 11-5” is one that should interest the Jacksonville Jaguars this year.  There are countless reasons why “experts” have and will continue to predict the Jaguars to have a season similar to 2011.  Having been ESPN’s punching bag for the past few seasons, the Jaguars will certainly continue to receive the same criticism until consistent results take place on the field.  That being said, and in honor of Speculation Season 2012, I believe the Jaguars will emulate the 49ers from a year ago and take the division by storm.

This time last year, the San Francisco 49ers had a new head coach at the helm. hell-bent on changing the culture of the team.  Jim Harbaugh had brief but significant history of developing young quarterbacks and arrived in San Fran with a rocky quarterback situation.  The incumbent, Alex Smith, had yet to play to expectations and had the fan base debating on whether he was the guy that could lead their team to the Promised Land.

Elsewhere on the team, the 49ers defense was coming off an excellent performance the previous season and strengthened their pass rush in the draft.  They had Pro Bowl-caliber running back Frank Gore returning and upgraded the position by bringing in Kendall Hunter to share carries and contrast Gore’s hard-running style.

The 49ers’ division, the NFC West, was in flux.  The Cardinals brought in an overhyped, unproven quarterback in Kevin Kolb to fill the hole left by departed hall of famer Kurt Warner.  The young and inexperienced Rams scared no one and the 2010 division-winning Seahawks were consistently inconsistent, as they had been for many seasons prior.

The similarities between the 2011 49ers and the 2012 Jacksonville Jaguars are hard to ignore.  Mularkey is coming from a situation where he worked first hand with promising young quarterback Matt Ryan and is entering one with struggling young quarterback Blaine Gabbert who has yet to have the influence and expertise of a quarterback-focused head coach.  He is changing the culture in Jacksonville, recently cancelling the Oklahoma Drill that was a staple during the Jack Del Rio era.  Maurice Jones-Drew is returning stronger than ever and a healthy Rashad Jennings will help add depth to the running game.  The Jaguars defense is coming off a top 10 performance and only got stronger by adding pass-rushing threat Andre Branch through the draft and retaining the starters from 2011.

The AFC South is as wide open as it has been in a decade.  The Colts bring in golden boy Andrew Luck to fill in for departed legend Peyton Manning and expect the unproven rookie to somehow improve a disastrous team on both sides of the ball.  The Titans are a legitimate wild card, still having to decide to go with young and inexperienced Jake Locker or 120 year old Matt Hasselbeck.  Their defense lost All Pro defensive back Cortland Finnegan and wide receiver Kenny Britt is poised to injure himself on every snap.  2011 division champion Texans finally put together a consistent season on both sides of the ball and made the playoffs.  They follow that up by losing their two best defensive playmakers in Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans.  Replacing that kind of production is a real gamble and with Andre Johnson coming off multiple leg injuries, Matt Schaub returning from season-ending foot surgery, and the potential for Arian Foster to become a complacent runner now that he has his big contract a la Chris Johnson, there is not much to rest easy on with Houston.

Then come the Jaguars.  A top 10 defense that is returning all starters and adding two-time Super Bowl champion Aaron Ross and pass-rushing blue chipper Andre Branch.  Maurice Jones-Drew returns as the current top running back in the game with his young ward Rashad Jennings back to add depth.  The flawed passing game upgrades with the addition of wide receivers Laurent Robinson, Lee Evans, and Jack Daniel… I mean Justin Blackmon.  The hungry new coaching staff paired with a full offseason should almost certainly improve Blaine Gabbert’s performance from his forgettable rookie year.

I may have teal blinders on, but when I look at the 2012 Jaguars and their division, I find it hard to argue that they won’t compete for the division title.  The pieces are in place for Gene Smith’s “Master Plan” to finally gain traction and deliver results in its fourth year.  The Jaguars are the only team in the AFC South that isn’t trying to fill glaring needs left from free agency.   The Jaguars are the only team in the division with no more excuses.  Like the 49ers from a year ago, this Jaguars team is ready to buckle up their chin straps and hit teams in the mouth, blow up the scoreboard, and shift the power of the division to northeast Florida.

- Lionel Joel