-The Good – It might not be easy to see, but it’s there I promise.  First of all, Derek Cox looks really good.  Rashean is past his prime so that makes our corners seem a little weaker, but Cox had two very impressive pass breakups against Armon Binns and Andy Dalton stayed away from him for most of the game.  Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcedes Lewis can make some plays for us on offense and we need to feed them the rock more often.  Lewis had two solid receptions on our touchdown drive and MoJo seems to give 110% on every play regardless of how far out of it the Jags are and that is great to see in a superstar player.

-The Bad – When we are celebrating Cameron Bradfield coming back from injury you know things are bad up front.  The Jaguars offensive and defensive lines are officially horrible.  The Bengals defensive front was occupying the Jags’ backfield for most of the game, a place that our defensive front apparently doesn’t know exists.  Eben Britton got benched in the second half and may not start next week against the Bears. Blaine Gabbert’s progress took a step back against the Bengals in part because of the defunct offensive line.  While he can’t really control the defensive pass rush, his biggest weakness was exposed because of it.  He has “cement feet.”  Every quarterback gets pressured, but good ones figure out a way to extend a few plays when protection breaks down.  Blaine can’t.  When he drops back, his feet plant firmly in the ground and stay there until he either passes the ball or gets sacked.  I want to see him occasionally roll out, step up, or just scramble around in the backfield a few times when the heat is on.  The constant checkdowns to Greg Jones aren’t going to get the job done.  By the way, if things keep going like this Greg Jones will be a threat to lead the league in receptions and we will finish 1-15.

-The Ugly – Big plays.  The Bengals made them, we did not.  The Kyle Bosworth interception fumble was heartbreaking and Rashean Mathis dropped an easy pick six, a play that he used to always make.  Then the Bengals had the fake punt and big pass to AJ Green that swung momentum their way for the rest of the game.  Had one of those plays gone in the Jaguars’ favor, things might have turned out differently.  Also, what was up with the play calls to Justin Blackmon?  Could it be more obvious that offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski was forcing Gabbert to pass it to Blackmon on every play?  Don’t get me wrong, I am the biggest supporter of #14, but let’s be realistic.  If it’s not there it’s not there.  Cecil Shorts has made plays for us this season and Marcedes Lewis is playing well too.  Maybe a pass or two towards Jerry Porter part deux (Laurent Robinson) would help justify giving $50 million to him instead of our franchise player in MoJo.  Blackmon will have a breakout game at some point and will be a producer, but let’s not force the issue.  It makes the Gabbert and Blackmon look bad.  Just let them go out and play.

-LJ

The Jaguars have depth issues – especially at the secondary

Time to prove why you're worth the money Aaron. Source: US-Presswire

Last year when the team had to patch the defensive backfield with new players and starters basically every week, I though that would mean a pretty deep group for ’12, when the injured players all returning to the field. Well, right now I’m afraid that’s not the case. The Saints and Ravens game showed everybody that this secondary (especially without Derek Cox) is not a very good one. Joe Flacco targeted Aaron Ross often and successfully, which is not a good sign no matter how good a WR Torrey Smith is. Rashean Mathis is still not 100% healed (it seems he will be the nickel corner against the Vikings), and Cox’s return to opening week is, according to Head Coach Mike Mularkey, ‘iffy’. If Cox cannot play, that means the Jaguars will start Ross and either William Middleton or Kevin Rutland. They both showed talent (Rutland looked improved and  promising in training camp), but they are still the 4th and 5th option as outside corners. The health of Mathis and Cox will be a concern all season long.

The depth question is even bigger at safety, where there is not much behind starters Dawan Landry and Dwight Lowery. Chris Pronsinski has played up and down thus far in the preseason (more often down), while Courtney Greene is most likely on the bubble once again before the final preseason game. He was there 2 years ago and he was so good he earned the starter position not much later. Now it would be enough if he’d show that the Jaguars can count on him if something happens to Landry. Behind them is almost nobody. Rod Isaac will most likely never play in a regular season game as a Jaguar, which will make Gene Smith look bad (again). Isaac is sadly not the 1st unknown player that ends up as a pick wasted (like Larry Hart or Scotty McGee, just to name a few). I wonder if the Jaguars might add a new safety around the final roster cuts.

But depth is a problem elsewhere as well. At LB, there is only one backup LB, Kyle Bosworth, who has even played in a regular season game. The Jaguars have to decide which 2 rookies they want to add next to him. Brandon Marshall and Julian Stanford were the leading candidates 2 weeks ago, but Marshall hasn’t showen much and was injured during the preseason. Meanwhile Joshua Jones and JK Schaffer are both starting to make a case for themselves. The LBs will be one area every Jaguars fan must pay attention to against Atlanta!

The team is thin at DE and at the interior offensive line too. At defensive end behind starters Jeremy Mincey and Andre Branch only Aaron Morgan has looked promising. Austen Lane will return at some point, but still the Jaguars are quite thin there right now.

At the middle of the offensive line many backups are now on IR (John Estes, Jason Spitz and Drew Nowak). Eben Britton moved to LG, which means Will Rackley lost his starter position, and now he is the 1st backup guard. Meester’s backup is rookie Mike Brewster who is the only 100% sure UDFA rookie who’ll make the final 53 (Julian Stanford is a close 2nd). 

New trends

It’s safe to say that last year the Jaguars brought in one of their most impressive free agent class in the franchise history. Posluszny, Landry, Lowery, Drew Coleman and poor Clint Session were all major contributors in the defense which jumped from being 31st to 6th overall in only 1 year, with no off-season. Meanwhile I must admit based on how they played their ’11 rookie class was one of the worst. Luckily Blaine Gabbert is playing like a 1st round pick in ’12, but the rest still haven’t justified why they were picked. It appears Will Rackley has now lost (partly because of injury) his staring job. Cecil Shorts is the team’s 4th WR, but I still haven’t seen much from him during the preseason. Prosinski and Isaac have been underwhelming, as previously mentioned.

Legatron my have just been worth that 3rd rounder. Source: US-Presswire

In 2012 I see the opposite. The top drafted rookies are playing really well, while the new free agents are struggling thus far. Top pick WR Justin Blackmon started with a 12 day holdout, and many feared he would be less effective in his rookie season as a result. Guess what, he is now the team’s best receiver…hands down. If he can play in the regular season the way he did in the preseason, Jacksonville has a new star player. Andre Branch proves every week that he is not just a great pass rusher, but he can defend the run as well. And Bryan Anger is having “solid” games with punting averages of 47 yards or better. From the bottom 3 draft picks I saw great run stops by Jeris Pendleton. Brandon Marshall and Mike Harris have not made any big impressions on me yet, but I expect that both will have the chance to prove himself in the regular season.

Meanwhile the high price free agents are having a rough time in the preseason. Chad Henne was a popular pick by experts as the starting QB on opening day (where are these guys now by the way?). Now unless Blaine Gabbert is injured, he had zero chance to take that job away from the 2nd year signal caller. In fact 3rd QB Jordan Palmer looked more impressive in the first 2 preseason games than Henne… Laurent Robinson is slowly starting to become a concern. While Blackmon is shining after a 12 day holdout, Robinson is struggling big time with almost full participation during training camp (he missed some time early with a head injury in camp). Robinson caught 1 ball versus the Saints for 7 yards, and failed to have a single catch despite being targeted 4 times versus the Ravens. He and the other WRs not named Blackmon need to get better, because the Jaguars top pick of ’12 will not be enough to elevate the passing game from last year’s dead last position. The other veteran WR, Lee Evans is not with the team already, and I doubt he’ll ever play again. I mentioned my concern with Aaron Ross based on what I saw in the last 2 preseason games. At least Robinson and Ross must play significantly better during the regular season, because both of them will start on September 9th and beyond. 

Who needs to play well against the Falcons?

QB Chad Henne and Jordan Palmer. This is the game where Henne must prove that he is the 2nd best option at QB. Meanwhile Palmer can earn a roster spot, or with an outstanding performance even more than that…

WR Kevin Elliott. I thought 2 weeks ago he was a lock for the 53. I don’t think so right now. His game winning TD versus the Saints was nice, but he needs to play better at special teams, and he must prove his statement he made earlier this year, “I’ll make the team not because of what I can do as a special teamer, but because of what I do as a receiver.”

RB Richard Murphy and Keith Toston. I don’t know at this point if Toston will play, but I hope he can. He was the 2nd best RB behind Jennings in this preseason, and if he is healthy, I think the Jaguars could use him, especially now with the uncertain situation of Maurice Jones-Drew. Murphy played well versus the Ravens, had a nice TD, and is still on the roster while last year’s preseason sensation DuJuan Harris is not (he was claimed by the Steelers). If the former LSU player has another strong game, he could earn at least a practice squad spot.

TEs Colin Cloherty and Zach Potter. Since Zach Miller is already injured and can’t be on the field this Thursday, this is a huge game for Cloherty. He can earn the 4th TE spot, or with a strong game he might take Miller’s place and role on the team. Zach Potter is the 2nd best blocking TE, so he might be safe since Matt Veldman (on IR) and Miller are ruled out against the Falcons, he could catch a few passes as well.

OT Daniel Baldridge. Guy Whimper is the team’s first backup tackle, but with a good perfomance the gigantic player (6’8″) from Marshall can earn a spot on the roster.

DT Jeris Penleton. Some say the Jaguars don’t need 3 (Knighton, Mosley, Pendleton) run stopping players at the middle. I say they do, but Pendleton can silence everybody with a strong showing Thursday night.

DE Ryan Davis and Corvey Irvin. As I wrote earlier the Jaguars are quite thin at the DE position behind the starters. Austen Lane and George Selvie are banged up, John Chick starts the season on PUP. The UDFA rookies, Davis and the DT turned DE Irvin can make the case for themselves as the 5th DE of the roster (and 4th until Lane is back) with a good game and with 1-2 sacks and QB hits…

The rookie backup LBs (Brandon Marshall, Julian Stanford, Joshua Jones and JK Scheffer). For me this will be the highlight of the 4th game – which rookie will earn his spot behind the starting 3 and (most likely) Kyle Bosworth? Brandon Marshall should be a lock, because he was a 5th round pick, but he hasn’t shown anything special yet. Besides Mike Brewster, Julian Stanford has the best chance among the UDFA rookies to make the final roster. Don’t forget about Jones and Schaffer as both have made a push lately for a roster spot. Most likely 2 of them will earn a spot in the final 53, 1 at the practice squad, and 1 will be a street FA. If I must make a projection, Stanford and Marshall will make the team, Jones will be on the practice squad, and the former heart and soul of the Bearcats defense must find a new team this weekend. But with a strong game from Scheffer this can change. 

Antwon Blake and Antonio Dennard. The rookie UDFA CB from UTEP (Blake) had 2 takeaways on special teams in one preseason game. Since Gene Smith and Mike Mularkey both want players who can contribute in this area, another good performance at ST could earn a surprise roster spot for Blake. Meanwhile Dennard had a pick six against the Ravens last Thrursday. If he plays well against the Falcons, it could earn him a place at the practice squad. 

Greene needs to get back to form if he wants to stay with the team. Source:: Fernando Medina-US PRESSWIRE

Courtney Greene.  Another good special teamer who needs to improve at his position. If Greene had been rated as a saftey alone he might be on trouble. But since plenty of the core special teamers now have bigger roles (Owens, Allen) or are injured (Bolen), he might be safe. He is also the best example that anybody can earn a roster spot with one good game. 2 years ago even I predicted that Greene would be cut after the 4th preseason game. But he had a very strong performance against the Falcons which earned him a place on the 53 men roster first, and 1 week later he even became the starter at the SS position. So even the 4th preseason game can change everything for a player on the bubble.

And finally here’s how I would cut the roster (starters’ names in bold):

(3) QB: Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Jordan Palmer

(6) RB: Rashad Jennings, Montell Owens, Jalen Parmelee, Greg Jones, Keith Toston, Maurice Jones-Drew

(5) WR: Justin Blackmon, Laurent Robinson, Mike Thomas, Cecil Shorts III, Brian Robiskie

(3) TE: Marcedes Lewis, Zach Potter, Colin Cloherty

(8) OL: Eugene Monroe, Eben Britton, Brad Meester, Uche Nwaneri, Cameron Bradfield, Will Rackley, Mike Brewster, Guy Whimper

(5) DT: Terrance Knighton, Tyson Alualu, C.J. Mosley, D’Anthony Smith, Jeris Pendelton

(4) DE: Jeremy Mincey, Andre Branch, Aaron Morgan, Austen Lane

(6) LB: Daryl Smith, Paul Posluszny, Russell Allen, Kyle Bosworth, Jullian Stanford, Brandon Marshall

(6) CB: Derek Cox, Rashean Mathis, Aaron Ross, Kevin Rutland, William Middleton, Mike Harris

(4) S: Dawan Landry, Dwight Lowery, Chris Prosinski, Courtney Greene

(1) K: Josh Scobee

(1) P: Bryan Anger

(1) LS: Jeremy Cain

Practice squad: Kevin Elliott, Richard Murphy, Daniel Baldridge, Corvey Irvin, Joshua Jones, JK Schaffer, Antwan Blake, Rod Isaac

George Selvie might get cut or may go to IR, Zach Miller can be waived or put on  IR, but right now I think he’ll never play again in Black and Teal.

- Zoltan Paksa

Here’s my list about what I’ll be focusing during the game:

Justin Blackmon’s Debut

Finally the Jaguars 1st round pick of ’12 will taste the atmosphere of an NFL game. Blackmon has been practicing in full pads since Monday. He struggled early in the week (as expected), but reports came that he looked better and better as the week progressed. I’m not sure how much playtime Blackmon will get against the Saints and at which position (as a Z receiver or in the slot), but I hope he’ll show a little flash with his great talent.  Earlier in OTA’s and minicamp Mularkey said that when Blackmon knew what was going on he performed well, but when he didn’t, he looked lost. It will be interesting to see if this is still the case.

Also it will be interesting to see who’s playing time will be limited in this game. Mike Thomas and Cecil Shorts got the snaps in Blackmon’s absence and Thomas had a great game against the Giants. Some have suggested that Blackmon should play in the slot early in his career, and let Shorts play in the Z receiver position. That would mean a 3 WR set, and I don’t know the Jaguars want to use that often or at this point.

Speaking of wide receiver, after the Gianst game there were a couple roster moves at the position. Lee Evans,  Taylor Price and Charles Gilbert were relased and the Jaguars added Demetrius Williams to the roster. I think the Jaguars have the 5 but more likely 6 receivers almost set for the final  53 men roster. Laurent Robinson, Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts III are guaranteed locks. Mike Thomas made a good case for himself at the Ginats game. Kevin Elliott and Brian Robiskie (who also had a good game last Friday) are battling for the final position, but since Ellioott can contribute on special teams as well (and they need some boost there after Kassim Osgood was cut earlier this year), the Jaguars will likely take all 6 players. Mike Brown needs a good game to make for a case for himself as a practice squad player. Meanwhile Chastin West can make this team only if one or two of the 6 WRs I mentioned get hurt.

 Offensive Line Issues

What happened to Guy Whimper? Source: US-Presswire

Many experts said the Jaguars were thin at O-line before camp even started. Now it seems injuries are testing the depth here very early. The injury bug bit the interior very hard as Will Rackley, Jason Spitz, and John Estes all can’t play. Estes could possibly end up on IR. This wek LT Eugene Monroe had a head injury (most likely a concussion) and even Eben Britton was seen limping (luckily only from being dehydration). Still, the Jaguars are now very thin at the left guard position. If the Jaguars don’t move Britton to this position, they have just UDFA rookies here. Mike Brewster, DJ Hall and Drew Nowak (who was a DT 2 weeks ago) seem to be the most likely fits. At tackle the team can take a deep look at Cameron Bradfield if Monroe does not play against the Saints – most likely that will be the case; there is some buzz around the 2nd year OT from Grand Valley Sate, he may even become a starter and not be just some jar on the shelf.  Even with these players I have concerns about how this patchwork O-line will protect Blaine Gabbert or help in the running game. The O-line with Monroe and Estes allowed 8 sacks (six sacks and two fumbles, one recovered) last week.  That is way too much, even if we consider how great the Giants’ pass rush is.  Now Uche Nwaneri & co will face Will Smith, Sedrick Ellis , Curtis Lofton and Cameron Jordan. Their job will not be any easier this week, especially at the Superdome in front of one of the best audiences in the NFL.

The even bigger fear is, who will play during the second half? At tackle there are backups Daniel Baldridge and the totally forgotten Guy Whimper… but who will play at center or guard in the second half? If Meester is benched for rest, Mike Brewster must take over at center. That means Nowak and Hall will get at least a half  or even more playing time at guard. The Jaguars also signed Josh Beekman this week as well. Chad Henne and Jordan Palmer could be in for a very rough night.

The old-new D-line 

Tomorrow Tyson Alualu will play for the first time since his knee surgery in the offseason. Most likely Terrance Knighton will also return to the starting lineup, since he was dominating against the Giants 2nd tier Offensive lineman (which indicates he is ready for more). But maybe the most interesting matchup will be the Jaguars starting DEs(Jeremy Mincey & Andre Branch) vs. the Saints tackles (Zach Streif and Jermon Bushrod).  Bushrod struggled against New England last week and he is considered to be a better OT than Strief. Joe Cullen praises Branch’s development in camp, so it will be interesting to see if that will show in QB hits or sacks. Also Aaron Morgan is continuing to make a strong case for himself as the 3rd best DE  right now. He finished with a team high 1.5 sacks last Friday. Keep your eye on him. D’Anthony Smith also looked promising in his start at DT. It will be interesting if he can dominate the at the level Knighton did last week.

Who will be Jennings’ backup? 

Sadly Maurice Jones Drew is still holding out,  so the Jaguars are now seriously planning for the regular season without their best offensive player. Luckily his backup, Rashad Jennings, plays really well, and it seems the starting RB position is a no brainer even without Jones-Drew. However the next player on the depth chart is the real question.  Jalen Parmele was really good in camp and during the scrimmage, but he looked lost vs the Giants. DuJuan Harris, who backed up Jones-Drew in the final games last season also struggled. So the Jaguars now moved two time Pro Bowler and special teams ace Montell Owens to be the 2nd RB on the depth chart. Owens is a very intelligent player, with great hands and good blocking skills. But as a runner the Jaguars have barely used him in previous seasons.  That is a major concern to me. So the backup RB position is up for grabs still between Owens, Parmele, Harris and Richard Murphy. And let’s not count out Keith Toston who played really well in the 2nd half last week.  So there are plenty of candidates, but the most welcomed development would be if Maurice Jones-Drew ends this standoff and returns to the team. If that happens, all of sudden the Jaguars will have one of the best 1-2 punches on the ground…

QB watch 

I thought Gabbert looked like a totally different player in the opening drive last week. Even the massive crowd of critics accept this.  He was efficient, made good decisions, and converted four 3rd and long situations in the opening drive against the Giants starting defense. Of course the critics found him on the fumble in his 3rd drive and accused him of a “chuck and duck” in a situation when every other QB would act the same. In fact Eli Manning just did the same in that game and nobody noticed… Seriously I wonder what this kid did to the media to earn such one sided criticism…  Anyway he can tone down the criticism with another great performance against the Saints. Sadly, the New Orleans defense kept the Patriots to 7 points last week, and that was in New England. Imagine how fired up the team and fans will be at home…

Also it looks like there will be a QB competition which involves Chad Henne. But instead of challenging  Gabbert he must defend his position against Jordan Palmer, who looked quite good in the 1st preseason game.  If this is the case versus the Saints (and if Palmer even plays, considering that the starters will play the entire first half) that’s not too good a trend for Mr. Henne. If Henne plays above average (and he will play behind a very, very shaky offensive line) things could turn into a QB controversy. At least at the backup QB position….

- Zoltan Paksa