If the Falcons are trying to recreate some level of success that the Jags had under Koetter, I have news for them: there isn’t any.

Chris Redman, I'll miss seeing you throw that ball. Now go back to selling insurance! Source: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

I’ve long disliked Koetter’s philosophy (stretching the field with a vertical passing game) and his coaching.  Further, I know that his system does not work…or at least didn’t with the Jaguars’ personnel.  After the 2007 season (a very good offensive year) the Jaguars attempted to fully implement Koetter’s approach and yielded greater scoring, more yards, and less wins.  I don’t care how you win in the NFL, but that’s the ultimate measure.  Besides that, the offense wasn’t nearly as successful as they had hoped.

And now there is Luke McCown.  I’ve been a McCown fan for a while and I like him as a backup.  But only on the bench.  If you need backup to show someone up in practice, he’s your man.  If you need a backup to take a few snaps late in a game, McCown’s your man.  If your quarterback goes down for an extended period of time, McCown is  not your man.  McCown has looked good in practice since he entered the league, but the journeyman backup will forever be a backup and doesn’t have the potential to raise your team from the depression that sets in once your starting quarterback goes down.  To go further, McCown has failed at orchestrating an offense under Koetter before.  If I were running the team, this would not be the way I would want things to be going.

I like Matt Ryan, I like Mike Smith, on the whole I think the Falcons are a solid organization.  But the trend of brining in failed offensive pieces should stop.  Atlanta has been hoping to make a splash in the playoffs for some time, this is not the way to do it.

It’s a tough league out there, the Falcons shouldn’t be making it harder on themselves.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

While I love the Jaguars, I recognize that the offense is easily the worst part of the team.  Maurice Jones-Drew can’t do everything, Blaine Gabbert can’t do a lot of things, and the receivers can’t do anything.  But in 2012 that will have to change if the Jaguars plan on being even remotely successful.

There were far too few Mike Thomas first downs in 2011....Source: Fernando Medina-US PRESSWIRE

The Jaguars faced more third downs (241) than any other team last year.  This was not just a result of bad offense play calling (Dirk Koetter….) it was also a consequence of inexperience and poor play.   But it was the resulting 33.6% of converted third downs that truly embarrassed the Jaguars during the 2011 season.  Being 25th in the league at converting third downs to continue the drive is another negative talking point for the media to jump on when criticizing the Jaguars.  If the Jags had been even remotely close to the league-best Saints mark of 56.7% they would not have had to attempt the sixth most fourth down plays (17) during the season.

I bring up the poor statistics of the Jaguars ability to continue drives because it is frequently overlooked.  While the offense was anemic (especially the passing offense), the job of the offense is to move the ball.  When your defense is especially good it is expected that the offense at least somewhat capitalize on the better field position the defense puts you in place with.  In the Jaguars case this mostly occurs via the leg of Josh Scobee.

Unfortunately, even with the massive leg of Mr. Scobee, the Jaguars were only in position for him to boot the ball 25 times.  25 times is good for 27th in the league and a full 25 less than league-leader David Akers of San Francisco.  Scobee was 5-6  on field goals from 50+ yards and we all know he can make a 59 yarder, he’s got quite the leg With a 92% chance of making his kicks, the offense really only needs to get the ball to the opponent’s forty yard line (realistically) to have a decent shot at sending in Scobee to get the team three points.  Yet they only got close enough 25 times.

The Jaguars averaged a league-worst 22 yards per drive, meaning that despite averaging 22.4 yards per kickoff return (yes, the team’s special teams consistently put up more yards than our offense…) the team could not move the ball a meager four first downs to get Scobee in range for a field goal and some points for the Jags (assuming the team began from the 22 yard line and started the return from the goal line).  To be fair, the Saints only averaged 42.4 yards per drive and they were the best in the league.

My point here is not that the Jaguars offense was terrible – this we already knew – but that a greater emphasis must be placed on gaining first downs for a team that has the ability to score from relatively far away from the goal line.  I firmly believe that the Jaguars could be the team leading the league in field goal attempts.  It got the Niners to the NFC Championship game on a good defense and Akers’ leg.  By focusing more on getting the ball past the next ten yards the team will greatly increase its odds of gaining those points.  With the new offense of Mike Mularkey and Bob Bratkowski, I think the team will have a greater emphasis placed on the intermediate routes that should free up first downs for the team rather than the more vertical focus of Koetter.

Scobee for MVP?

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

There's a reason Mularkey got a second chance at a head coaching gig and Koetter probably never will. Source: Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

I was recently reading the Schein 9 over at FOX Sports when I stumbled over a sentence that read, “Dirk Koetter is an upgrade over Mike Mularkey as offensive coordinator.”

I had to stop and reread the sentence.

For those of you that may not know, Dirk Koetter went to Atlanta after we stole their offensive coordinator to become our head coach.  Mularkey (rightly) hired a new offensive coordinator and shooed Koetter far away.

I’ve never been a Dirk Koetter fan.  I’ve never enjoyed his scheming, his approach, or his play calling.  I was more than happy to read that he was gone from Jacksonville, and I was even more happy knowing that Bob Bratkowski was replacing him.

But, rather than let my personal feelings and preferences toward football make me think rashly, I decided to take a look at the numbers just in case.

Dirk Koetter has been an offensive coordinator for only one team, the Jacksonville Jaguars from 2007-2011.  Mike Mularkey has been the offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers (’01-’03), the Miami Dolphins (’06), and the Atlanta Falcons (’08-’11).  While I could argue that Mularkey is better as an offensive coordinator merely because of his experience as a coordinator in numerous different systems, I’ll instead focus on statistics.

Dirk Koetter has had one season (’07) in which the offense he was directing finished in the top 10 in yards and points.  This was a largely a result of a very strong running game behind Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew (1970 yards, 14 TDs, 2nd in the NFL).  David Garrard played safe (one interception all year), and the Jaguars relied on half-field reads and the play action pass.  Some argue that this wasn’t of Dirk Koetter’s design as he was brought in to elongate the field.

Look, a coach who does a good job coaching! Source: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

Koetter got the chance to do so in his subsequent seasons.  Yet the Jaguars regressed under his tutelage.  Never again did the Jaguars even sniff the top 10 in overall offense.  Only once did the Jaguars again breach the top ten in an offensive category (2010′s 3rd in rushing yards and attempts, 9th in TDs).  The passing offense that was supposed to become more explosive and elongated under Koetter?  It’s best rank was 15th in 2008 for yards, 4th in interceptions in ’09, 11th in touchdowns in 2010.  The team continued to rely on its workhorse running backs and failed to make the jump to an effective elongated passing attack.  Say what you want about the weapons on offense, but sometimes it just comes down to poor coaching and poor understanding of the scheming.  Both of those things come from the communication of the offensive coordinator.

Taking a look at Mike Mularkey shows a different story.  Mularkey has always favored a more balanced offense, and tailored his offense to best interact with his personnel rather than trying to force a scheme down the throats of players unsuited for it.  On four seasons his offense has finished in the top 10 in yards (’01 & ’02 in Pittsburgh; ’08 & ’11 in Atlanta) and six times (once as head coach) his offense has finished in the top 10 in points (’08, ’10, ’11 in Atlanta; ’01 & ’02 in Pittsburgh; and ’04 as HC of Buffalo).  Not to mention the three top 10 rushing yards (’01, ’02, ’08), his four seasons in the top 10 in rushing TDs (’01, ’04, ’08, ’10), his two seasons (’02, ’11) in the top ten of passing yards, and his three seasons in the top 10 of passing TDs (’02, ’10, ’11).

Mularkey did all of this with multiple different teams, bring the Pittsburgh Steelers to the playoffs, almost making the Bills respectable, and ensuring almost a decade of respectable Atlanta Falcons teams to come.

Somehow, however, Dirk Koetter is still considered a better offensive coordinator.  In fact, he’s widely regarded as successful in his coaching duties.  I sure as hell can’t understand it.  His intellect and ability to talk his way out of situations must be amazing.  If my team continually wasted away in the lower end of the offensive scale, I’d move past the coordinator in a hurry.

- Luke N. Sims