Nov 18, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars middle linebacker Paul Posluszny (51) has a cut on his nose repaired against the Houston Texans in the fourth quarter at Reliant Stadium. The Texans defeated the Jaguars 43-37. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Pro Football Focus’ Performance Based Value stat continues to show the Jacksonville Jaguars’ previous regime to have made some poor moves.  This time the good statisticians at PFF take a look at linebackers across the league and the Jags have two of the most overvalued linebackers in the NFL.

As much as I, and other Jags fans, like Paul Posluszny, he simply hasn’t justified the contract he signed with the team two years ago.  Being a tackling machine in the traditional middle linebacker sense is not as valued as it once was and “Poz” sees his value deflated as a result.  The guy puts on a clinic and pours his heart and soul into the game, but he isn’t producing enough big plays to justify his contract.  Playing without Daryl Smith on the outside likely hurt him as well.  Here’s what PFF has to say:

Season 2012 was quite the downer for Paul Posluszny. He graded out the lowest we’ve ever seen from him and took a significant step back from his successful 2011 campaign. He had one of the lowest Run Stop Percentages among inside linebackers, at 7.5, and he was fairly average in coverage as well. His .95 yards per coverage snap was 20th among middle linebackers. Those numbers were both down from his 2011 level of play where he was PFF’s seventh-highest graded inside linebacker. The good news for the Jags is that he has shown he can be one of the best middle linebackers in the league, but the bad news is he will have to play like it to be worth his $8m+ cap hits the next three seasons.

Smith, the franchise leader in tackles, is the other Jaguar on the list of most overvalued linebackers.  While Performance Based Value really hurts you when injured for the majority of the season, the play that Smith did contribute in the final two games of the season was not nearly as inspired as his previous seasons with the team.  He may walk in free agency this offseason but is usually a force when playing a full season.  Here is what PFF had to say about Smith:

Daryl Smith missed the first 14 games of 2012 with a groin injury. He came back from IR utilizing the league’s new one player exemption. He missed only 11 snaps in the two games he played, and had an overall grade of -1.3. Smith is a free agent this offseason and has been one of the premier 4-3 outside linebackers the past couple of years, and had the highest grade of any 4-3 outside linebacker in 2009.

Given an injury-free season, it would be unlikely that Smith winds up on this list.

- Luke N. Sims

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Then comes the question…what will the Jaguars do in free agency? There are many fans who are sick and tired of the “we will build through the draft” mantra that has become ever so popular over the last few months. Free agency, especially the first days, are extremely dangerous. The Jaguars have had a few nice signings over the last few years such as Paul Posluszny. Most of the time though, those signings turn out to be Aaron Ross and Laurent Robinson. The Jaguars just haven’t been able to get it right. It’s apparent they will not be active in free agency this year, and if they are I’ll definitely write a post about how wrong I was. I’ll eat my words with a side of shame, but just going off of what Caldwell is saying-don’t expect much, at least not in the first days.

I’m not going to spend time writing about how the best way to build a team is through the draft. I do agree with that strategy, but I’d like to address something that is just important as the 2013 draft which actually does involve free agency.

Early on, GM Dave Caldwell talked about evaluating the roster. Before the Jaguars do anything, before fans speculate anything, before draft gurus mock another college prospect at No. 2, evaluating the talent on the current roster is the single most important thing happening for the Jacksonville Jaguars on March 12th. Don’t get caught up in the hype of all these sexy free agents going here and there and wherever. It seems in all the draft talk we’ve forgotten about the first thing that must take place in order for the team to take on new identity, and it centers around our current crop of free agents.

Derek Cox was not tagged. As a matter of fact, Caldwell came out early and said that he would not be using the franchise tag. It’s looking like Daryl Smith might not be back either. Eben Britton is as good as gone. Rashean Mathis and Brad Meester should be done as well. Other than Cox (who is talented, but injury prone) and Eben Britton (who just isn’t any good), what do free agents such as Mathis, Meester, and fullback Greg Jones have in common? You guessed it – they don’t have much tread left on the tires. Don’t even get me started on Rashad Jennings and why he shouldn’t be back.

Source: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Look. I’m not going to list a “core” of players because anyone who knows anything about their favorite team can tell you which players are going to be a part of the future and who isn’t.

But what about possible progress-stoppers? Players such as Mathis and Meester and Greg Jones really take away playing time from the young guns. I would have liked to have seen more from 2012 5th round pick Mike Harris last year, but Mathis began complaining about his lack of snaps and just like that he had taken away valuable playing time from the promising rookie. Greg Jones is way too expensive at his age. Meester is on the decline, but his heart and effort for the team will always be in the right place. There’s a lot of talent along the interior line in this year’s rookie class, however, and it might be time to go younger.

The most intriguing Jacksonville Jaguar free agent to me has to be Terrance Knighton. I’ve been very hard on Mr. Knighton as he has driven me crazy with his inconsistency over the years, but with a new coaching regime in place could he be more motivated to consistently play at the level we’ve seen him reach at times?

We will keep Derek Cox for the right price as we should. I’d also like to see Daryl Smith stick around, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 on a team that wants to go younger.

On March 12th when free agency begins, you can’t expect splash signings. What you can expect is a clearer picture of the roster moving forward and, more importantly, what we might be looking for in the draft.

-David R. Johns

Nov 18, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Derek Cox (21) intercepts a pass intended for Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson (80) in overtime at Reliant Stadium. The Texans defeated the Jaguars 43-37. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Jacksonville Jaguars are transitioning away from an era of failure.  New GM Dave Caldwell is looking to bring in new talent and build a winning roster that can win a Super Bowl.  He is looking for some homerun hitters to complement a core base of players.  As free agency nears, a number of players who were important in years past may no longer be with the team.  Among those names are cornerback Derek Cox and linebacker Daryl Smith.

Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union writes, “It appears likely that they will lose starting cornerback Derek Cox and linebacker Daryl Smith, the team’s all-time leading tackler.”  Unfortunately, I see this as likely as well.  It is particularly unfortunate in the case of Smith.

Cox is considered a very good corner on the verge of shutdown status, when he’s on the field.  Cox has only played in 73% of games since he was drafted by the team in the third round of the 2009 draft.  He hasn’t played in a full season since his rookie year when he showed that he can be a reliable starting cornerback.  Due to his talent, his agent anticipates a vigorous market for Cox.  The Jaguars, looking for the right value in every player as they overhaul the roster, will likely shy away from paying Cox too much money.

Smith will be a major loss if he leaves in free agency.  The stud linebacker was a second round pick in the 2004 draft and didn’t play in only four games from 2004-2011.  Then 2012 happened and he only appeared in the final two contests.  While injury likely won’t be the primary concern keeping the Jaguars from making a competitive play for Smith, combine with his age the team may think it’s the right time to move on.  Smith is the heart and soul of the defense but if he can’t be brought back in at a reasonable contract level, the Jags will find many cheaper options.

Despite a poor defensive showing in 2012, the team may lose two of their most talented players in free agency.  Transition times for NFL teams can often result in big changes like this.  It would be sad to see Cox and Smith leave in free agency, but it will be very tough for the Jags to bring them back and focus on finding other pieces to overhaul the rest of the roster as well.

- Luke N. Sims

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