Dec 23, 2012; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Justin Blackmon (14) warms up before the start of the game against the New England Patriots at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

A comment on Facebook actually made me think about how the Jags stack up at receiver these days.  During all of this talk about whether Percy Harvin fits with this team or that, it’s nice to think about what the Jaguars have on their roster at the position.  And it’s looking good.

Harvin may be an athletic upgrade, but right now the Jags have three receivers that I think work well together.

Justin Blackmon

• Blackmon finally emerged as a playmaker in with 236 yards in a tough loss against the Houston Texans.  Week 11 and beyond he averaged 16.1 yards per reception and a decent 5.4 receptions per game.  He was finally starting to put it together was learning how to use his bigger body to out-position and beat the corners covering him.  Blackmon has become the physical talent on the outside the Jags had hoped he would be.  With some work on his hands he will only become even more dangerous.

Cecil Shorts III

• Shorts had a big breakout sophomore campaign with two different quarterbacks and after being forced into starting action following Laurent Robinson’s concussions.  While some big moments, like the 80 yard catch and run to beat the Colts, came as the third receiver since taking over starting duties in week seven Shorts averaged 86 yards per game, 5.2 receptions per game, and 16.4 yards per reception.  Paired with Blackmon, Shorts was a game changing wide receiver during the season.  He was among the best in the league with 17.8 yards per reception on the season.

Jordan Shipley

• The Jaguars were fortunate to pick up Shipley in week 12.  He instantly turned into the most reliable Jaguar receiver dropping just 8% of catchable balls and put up a respectable 10.6 yards per reception.  He worked his way into the starting lineup following Shorts’ concussions and finished the season starting opposite Blackmon in weeks 16 and 17.  In those final two games he caught 12 balls for 133 yards and one touchdown.  For a guy who was on the street before the Jags picked him up, that’s pretty good.  Shipley’s skill-set as a possession receiver provides good balance with the Jags.

The Jaguars need the big play ability of Shorts, the muscle of Blackmon, and the reliability of Shipley as they move forward.  All three receivers are young with one, two, and three years of experience, respectively.  They offer the ability for the Jaguars to grow with them as they stand out among the receiving corps of the NFL.

- Luke N. Sims

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Way to be featured again, Cecil!  Source:  Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

Yards per route run?  Yeah, it’s another one of those signature stats things that Pro Football Focus continues to push out.  What’s that?  You’ve been hearing a lot about PFF on B&T lately?  Yes, it’s because for once we have a player who is featured in these things.

That player is Cecil Shorts III.

No Jacksonville Jaguars player played quite like Shorts this season.  The guy had the highest receiving yards since 2005 and provided a big play threat that the Jags have been unable to cultivate for years.  While he had some issues – like having the sixth highest drop rate in the NFL – he was still highly effective.

This is evidenced by Shorts’ eighth highest yards per route run.

YPRR tries to more accurately show the effect of a receiver by measuring the effect of the player per route rather than by measuring his total receiving yards and catches.  In this way players like Calvin Johnson are brought down from their pedestal (not that his gargantuan effort should be slighted!) based on passing more than any other team ever.

Michael Crabtree had a great season and it is reflected in his YPRR.  Source: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

YPRR provides a bit of efficiency measurement for receivers, which is something that is generally lacking when measuring the overall efficiency of a passing game.  Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick were efficient quarterbacks, but Michael Crabtree helped by being a very efficient wide receiver (2.55 YPRR).  In measuring the YPRR, Calvin Johnson drops out of the top spot and is replaced by Andre Johnson as the only receiver with above 3.0 (3.01 YPRR).

Below Andre Johnson the list get tighter.  The next highest YPRR belongs to Brandon Marshall and is a full .25 below Johnson.  But between Marshall and Shorts (seven players) there is a difference of just .46. This puts Shorts in some pretty good company.

Shorts’ YPRR of 2.30 is nowhere near 3.01, but it puts him close to top receivers like A.J. Green (2.31) and Vincent Jackson (2.34) and puts him ahead of top receivers like Wes Welker (2.19), Dez Bryant (2.12), and Roddy White (2.08).  Shorts has found himself in good company after a major breakout campaign.

As PFF notes in their conclusion, “it will be nearly impossible to be high on this list without at least an adequate quarterback.”  Is that an endorsement of Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne?  Shorts is also the only receiver in the top 15 who was targeted less in less than 20% of throws by his quarterback(s).  Now imagine if he had caught more of those passes…

Behind Shorts, things are looking up for Jags receivers.

- Luke N. Sims

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Now: wide receiver.

Here are the other parts of the series: QB, OL

Can’t name this player based on his number?  Don’t worry, it’s because his play didn’t really make him worth remembering.  He was part of the revolving door at wide receiver.  Source: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

The Jaguars had a terrible year with their receivers.  It seemed that everyone who could get injured did.  Justin Blackmon was the lone receiver to make it through the entire season with the team, not missing a single game.  Whether it was trading Mike Thomas to the Detroit Lions, putting Laurent Robinson on IR, or ending Cecil Shorts III’s quest for 1,000 yards, there was so much bad that it was shocking to see some good come out of.

Following the 2011 season the Jaguars were considered to have a terrible receiving corps.  Lee Evans was brought in to compete, Robinson was signed to a big contract, and the team traded up to draft Blackmon.  The team knew it needed help and took steps to get it.  Blackmon is the only one of the three who made an impact.  Second-year man Shorts was able to step up and provide the complement to Blackmon.

But how did the team do besides Shorts and Blackmon?  Why was there a revolving door at slot receiver and below?  That’s something the numbers will show us.

2-14 is not a record a good team having a bad year gets.  2-14 is a record that a bad team deserves.  Make no mistake, the 2012 Jaguars were bad.  But why could the team do so much better at wide receiver but worse overall?  The 2011 Jaguars finished 5-11 without the support of decent pass catchers. Even the Arizona Cardinals managed a better record than the Jags and Larry Fitzgerald (Larry Fitzgerald!!!) only had 798 yards.

Unfortunately, wide receivers just don’t do enough to change a team from bad to good.  You could have Jerry Rice and Cris Carter on the same team but without a decent quarterback and a running game to balance the offense, it won’t do that much.  The value that a wide receiver offers is dependent on other variables.

But that shouldn’t stop them from contributing.

The wide receivers had their work cut out for them with a struggling starting quarterback and a second-string quarterback who was inconsistent.  Still, the Jags wide receivers contributed 2,690 of the 3,746 total passing yards for the Jaguars in 2012.  A big problem for the Jaguars was getting open.  This put a strain on the passing game and forced a lot of checkdowns to running backs.

The majority of the passes to wide receivers went the way of Shorts and Blackmon.  Combined, the two accounted for 1,844 yards (49% of the passing output) on 119 receptions.  Unfortunately, Shorts and Blackmon were not the best at hanging onto the ball.  Shorts had the sixth highest drop rate in the NFL in dropping 14.06% of catchable balls.  Blackmon wasn’t much better, dropping 11.11% of catchable balls.  The other receivers were able to post such minute contributions that their drop rate is blown out of proportion.  Only Jordan Shipley had consistent hands (8% drop rate) but was with the team for only six games.  He still managed to post 244 yards and a healthy 10.6 yards per catch.

Blackmon came into his own later in the season but could still be better.  Source: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Shipley was a part of the revolving door at wide receiver.

Whether it was Kevin Elliott, Quan Cosby, Michael Spurlock, or Mike Thomas, nobody stuck as that third or fourth guy on the roster.  If Robinson had been healthy this may not have been the case, but as it was there was nobody to step up until Shipley emerged.  The lack of depth was a problem for the Jaguars.

On top of having double digit drop rates, Shorts and Blackmon were unable to gain separation from defensive backs consistently.  This allowed defenses to sell out against the run, even if there was a third or fourth receiver.  The receivers further down the depth chart did not have enough experience or playing time to prove to be a viable threat to the defense either.  In short, Blackmon and Shorts didn’t do enough during the 2012 season.

Randy Moss is still considered good if only because he is a distraction.  A major part of being a wide receiver is setting up the run.  Without demanding double teams or schematic shifts, the Jags’ receiving corps was not doing a crucial its job.  Without Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield, it was even worse.

Yet the receiving corps is generally considered a bright spot for the 2012 Jags.  They didn’t do enough.  It looks to be on the rise, fortunately, but teams that finish 2-14 need superb play from their receivers if they don’t want to finish that badly again.

We’ll look at the tight ends next while we diagnose the 2-14 Jaguars’ season.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims