Yet they are going to win the Super Bowl.

Even though I mock the prediction (and I’m calling it and saying they will not win the Super Bowl this year), I really liked the bravado of Mr. Kalil.  He took out a full page ad in the Charlotte Observer to proclaim his prediction and firmly believes in his teammates.  Despite rebuilding, the team just received resounding support from one of their veteran cornerstones.  Every player in that locker room just went “we can do this!”  I guarantee it.

This guy could be smiling all season long! Source: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Bravado, arrogance, self-confidence, and conceit all have some negative sides too them.  You’re either talking too much, not backing up your talk, looking down your nose at others, or so obsessed with the play you bring that you think you can win games entirely on your own.  Yet there is something refreshing about it all.  It displays the feelings you have about your team and yourself.

Terrell Owens was always fun to watch, not because he was good (which he was) but because he always thought that with the ball in his hands he could score a touchdown.  ”Get your popcorn ready” was as much a proclamation of confidence as saying the team will win a Super Bowl.  The only difference is that TO generally scores a bit more than a center.  While a continual distraction off the field, some of the players who jaw a lot tend to make impacts that are felt across the team, through the season, and into the post-season (they the team gets there).

Elite Eli Manning was able to claim he was elite in a press conference.  We all scoffed. Tom Coughlin’s job was on the hot seat, nobody knew of Victor Cruz, and Brandon Jacobs just was not impressing anybody anymore.  Yet in February it was the Giants hoisting the Lombardi trophy behind a superb season by the younger Manning.

There’s a time and place for self-confidence.  A lot of players confuse that time and place as being whenever they are in front of a microphone.  What is so irksome about Ryan Kalil’s proclamation is that he is not one of those guys.  He does not get in front of the camera each week and tell  everyone to watch him lay a DT on his ass.  He’s a quiet man, does his job very well, and right now he’s got a confidence that is tough to ignore.

Cam Newton is something special and the Panthers are building something great on the East Coast.  Who knows, this year may just be their year.

- Luke N. Sims

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Although most people in the Jaguars organization, along with the media and the Jaguars’ fans, would agree that Blaine Gabbert’s growth is the biggest need for the Jaguars this year, I decided to start with the longest need we’ve had in recent history: a pass rush.  Getting a pass rush has been The Big Need for the last four years or so.  Since the infamous draft of 2008, the Jagaurs have swung and missed on defensive ends, which undoubtedly played a role in the Jaguars’ decision to draft DE Andre Branch and spend $27 million re-signing Jeremy Mincey, who’s never had more than last season’s eight sacks in his six year career.

Last year, the Jaguars’ pass rush had been more productive than it had in recent years, but the 31 sacks they accumulated still left them tied for 25^th in the league, along with defensive bottom dwellers like Carolina and Indianapolis.  A team that ended up ranked 5^th in defensive efficiency has no business being so far down the rankings in such an important defensive statistic.   Even though sack numbers don’t tell the whole story about effective a team’s pass rush is, as the Jaguars’ GM, staff, and even fans have pointed out at various times the last couple seasons, it seemed pretty curious to me that a team that improved so much (32^nd in defensive efficiency in 2010 to 5^th in 2011; 5^th in both pass and rush defense efficiency!!!) showed such little relative improvement in the sack department.  Just like any other defensive play, sacks are nowhere near isolated.  They depend on the run-stopping, coverage, sub-packaging, etc. that form the foundation of any great defense.  Don’t they?

We're depending on you, Andre Branch. Source: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

As it turns out, seemingly they do.  And while statistics don’t always flat out lie, in cases like this they can be very misleading.  While the Jaguars were by no means an elite pass-rushing group (as any tuned-in Jaguars fan could tell you), the “Rushmen” were certainly better than a simple sack number can give them credit for.  Football Outsiders (compilers of the defensive efficiency rankings hyperlinked above) dug deeper to produce a statistic that represented a team’s pass rush more accurately: adjusted sack rate.

What is the sack rate adjusted for, you may ask.  Pretty important things actually.  How about strength of schedule – strength of an opponent’s ability to pass protect?  Playing Tennessee twice a year, the best pass-protecting team in 2011, probably turned a few would-be-sacks into pressures.  What else does it account for?  Intentional grounding penalties, pass attempts, down, and distance.  As you might imagine, sacks go up on 3^rd downs, especially on 3^rd and longs.  Thus, an accurate statistic needs to adjust for the number of 3^rd downs a team faces, as well as the distance before a first down.

How do the Jaguars fare in adjusted sack rate?  Not too badly actually.  Our adjusted sack rate was 7.2%, 13^th in the league, and 0.4% higher than the next team on the list, the concussion-specialist Steelers (comparatively, we were only 0.4% lower than the 7^th ranked team, suggesting we probably held up the end of the second tier of teams with regards to sack-rate.  For more details, click the second hyperlink.).  This is up from our 22^nd ranking last year at 5.8% – that rate would’ve left us at 26^th this year.  So yeah, the Jaguars didn’t get better in every single defensive category except sacks; they got better with regards to sacks too.  Much better.  And considering the injuries we faced on the defensive line (Roth, Chick, Alualu, Lane…) and in the secondary (Mathis, Cox, etc. etc. etc.), that is a pretty impressive improvement.

Come back John Chick! You weren't that bad! Source: Phil Sears, US Presswire

How come we ended up ranked 25^th in sacks last year?  One major component was the pass protecting quality of the opponents we faced.  I took the relative pass protection rankings of the opponents we faced in 2011-2012 and their average rank came out to 12.9; so, instead of rushing the 16^th ranked team in terms of pass protection (if our schedule was “average”), our defensive line was rushing against the 13^th ranked team in terms of pass protection.  But this is still an overestimate, because it uses relative ranks instead of absolute numbers.  So I recalculated using adjusted-sack rates.  And you know what?  It turns out our D-lines schedule was even more difficult.         The average adjusted-sacks-allowed rates of our opponents last year was 5.78%, a number which fits squarely between the 9^th and 10^th best pass protecting teams.  So it’s like our D-line was facing the 9.5^th best pass protecting team all year (as opposed to the 16^th, if they  had an “average” schedule).

Given these numbers, and the players we’ve acquired and gotten back from injury, let’s look towards 2012-2013 and try to find a realistic goal might be.  If we stay healthy this year, I think we can reach the top of the second tier of adjusted sack rates (7.6-7.8%), which would represent a healthy jump (0.4-0.6%) in pass rush.  A 0.4% to 0.6% boost in sacks would give us between 32 and 33 sacks on the year next year – which would allow us to jump from 25^th in the sack rankings to 24^th.  Clearly not impressive.  But remember, a 0.4-0.6% boost would be applied to adjusted sack rate, not total sack numbers.  This boost should increase our total sack numbers, but may not depending upon the opponents we face and the other such variables it takes into account.  Just for fun, let’s try to calculate what the Jaguars’ sack number would look like if our adjusted sack rate remained constant (7.2%).  If the adjusted sack rate remains constant and if there’s an inverse linear relationship between opponent pass protection (as a function of adjust-sacks-allowed rate) and total number of sacks a D-line will produce, the number of sacks the Jaguars should produce next year can be estimated by the pass protecting abilities of their opponents, assuming all other variables like intentional grounding penalties and total number of pass plays run are relatively constant.  A quick calculation of our 2012-2013 opponents’ adjust-sacks-allowed rates and relative ranks shows that next year, the average team we’ll face will have a relative rank of 15.3, and an adjusted-sacks-allowed rate of 6.5, which corresponds to a team ranked just between 16^th and 17^th in terms of pass-protecting abilities.  Using that in conjunction with our adjusted-sack rate, as a function of opponent adjusted-sacks-allowed rate in 2011-2012, our sack rate would be 8.15% – top 5 in the league and just at the bottom of the first tier of defensive behemoths that include the Eagles, the Ravens, and the Vikings!  Obviously, this makes a number of assumptions, but it shows two things: 1. Our defense rushed the passer (in terms of sack production) at a way better rate than what we may have thought… and 2. With a slightly easier to rush schedule next season, we may see another boost in sack  numbers!

Watch out world – Here come the Jaguar Rushmen!

– Zain Gowani

Will Arian Foster take the Rushing Title in 2012? Source: US-Presswire

While there will inevitably be someone who comes out of nowhere to put up some big numbers like Arian Foster has done, who really has a shot at taking home the title and being the “best running back” in 2012.  For purposes of discussion, the best running back will be defined as the most yards on the ground in a season (the same qualification for running backs to win the rushing title).

So, who will it be?  A rebounding Adrian Peterson?  A no longer disgruntled Chris Johnson?  How about Ben Tate rather than Foster?  Here are the top ten from last year:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew: 1,606 yards
2. Ray Rice: 1,364 yards
3. Michael Turner: 1,340 yards
4. LeSean McCoy: 1,309 yards
5. Arian Foster: 1,224 yards
6. Frank Gore: 1,211 yards
7. Marshawn Lynch: 1,204 yards
8. Willis McGahee: 1,199 yards
9. Steven Jackson: 1,145 yards
10. Ryan Matthews, 1,091 yards

Of the top ten from last year, five were in the top ten from 2010: Maurice Jones-Drew (5th), Ray Rice (10th), Michael Turner (3rd – talk about consistent!), Arian Foster (1st), and Steven Jackson (8th).  The players who didn’t repeat?  Adrian Peterson (6th), Jamaal Charles (2nd), Chris Johnson (4th), Rashard Mendenhall (7th), and Ahmad Bradshaw (9th).

Of the five who have repeated the past two years (some longer than that), I think it is safe to say that Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Arian Foster, and Michael Turner will be back in the top ten for 2012.  As much as I like Steven Jackson (and I like him a lot!) I don’t see him replicating his success in 2012 with a revamped offense, new head coach, and some serious wear and tear on his body (the guy averaged 20 attempts per game the past three seasons and has had injury issues).

Look for San Fran's Frank Gore to be Limited by Defenses as they make the Niners pass to beat them. Source: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

With the assumption that four of our top ten spots will be filled, who can we expect to join them?  From last year’s top ten, I find that the most probable returns for 2012 will be Ryan Matthews and LeSean McCoy.  McCoy has proven he will be a versatile threat on every down and he is featured in a lot of plays under Andy Reid.  Matthews will be forced into taking more handoffs with the departure of wide receiver Vincent Jackson to Tampa Bay and will carry a much bigger burden of the offense.  Matthews stepped it up last year by 21 yards per game and an increase of only two more attempts per game.  The guy is finally filling LaDainian Tomlinson’s shoes.

Right now, our list is sitting with six players on it.  All of whom have been in the top ten this past year.  Who gets the final four slots?  Who will round out the top ten in the competition for the rushing title?  For that, I turn my attention to the yards per attempt statistics for last year.  Of the running backs who are already in our six defined spots, none of them are in the top ten for yards per attempt (though the statistics do include quarterbacks Cam Newton and Tim Tebow).  Of the top ten in yards per attempt, two teams (Buffalo and Carolina) have two running backs in average yards per attempt.  C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson represent Buffalo, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart represent Carolina – as does Cam Newton.

I expect that the loads on both sides will continue to be split amongst multiple players, though if Williams is injured again – as his history suggests he may be – I fully expect that Stewart could slip into the top ten to round out the bottom.  And with Cam Newton focusing more on passing rather than running, look for Stewart’s attempts per game to increase. Unfortunately for Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, I don’t expect either of them to outdistance the other in 2012.  Especially with Spiller expected to have a very good year.  Both players will be successful, of this I have no doubt, but neither will be able to set such a pace that the team abandons its two-headed monster of a backfield.

Right now, this is how our top ten looks (with no rankings applied)

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster
• Michael Turner
• LeSean McCoy
• Ryan Matthews
• Jonathan Stewart

Nothing like a knee injury to make you want to succeed next year. Source: Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE

I think it is about time we took a look at Adrian Peterson.  Adrian Peterson injured himself in the 12th game of the season last year and is still working on coming back full force.  But in 12 games, he put up 970 yards.  That’s 80.8 yards per game (good enough for 8th on the list of yards per game).  Will AP be back in time for the start of the season?  Maybe.  But he’ll be back at some point.  And when he returns, he’ll be hungry.  If the guy doesn’t put up at least 1,000 yards in 2012 I’ll be shocked.  Just over 1,000 yards should be enough to put him in the top ten anyway.

See the next page to see who rounds out our top ten and who will take the rushing title!