Editor’s Note:  This article was originally published on May 16th 2011.  For the original article, check The Hub on the main page.  The comments alone are worth a read.

December 15, 2011; Atlanta, GA, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert (11) shown on the sidelines against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Jaguars 41-14. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Selected with the 10th overall pick, Gabbert finds himself with heavy expectations on his shoulder, as top-10 of the first round is not a place for a project to be drafted. Rest assured, Gabbert is a project. There are many aspects of his game that need to be developed. Can he put it together and be what Jacksonville needs?

The task of “saving the city” will not be easily achieved. Remember the Jaguars to Los Angeles talks? Gabbert has to silence that too.

I don’t envy the man and I hope that he succeeds but I don’t believe that he will be the All-Pro that most do. In fact, my initial reaction to the selection was: OHNO! Regardless, I will do everything I can to intellectually make my point and after the article is written, I will shut my mouth and continue to be a fan of the Jaguars. As long as Gabbert is in teal, he will be a guy I root for, a guy I believe in, a guy I wish success upon….but that’s after this article.

After researching quarterbacks taken in the top-10 since 1995 (the year the Jaguars entered the league), I came away surprised. I was expecting an even lower number of successful quarterbacks.

Before looking at the stats, let’s define successful. I am accepting a major contributor in a Super Bowl year (Eli Manning), a guy that has multiple pro bowl appearances (Peyton Manning), or a franchise QB (Phillip Rivers) as defined in a previous article of mine.

A quarterback that is so great that when he is on the field, fans know there is a chance to win at all times. A quarterback that is known as an elite leader. A guy who defensive coordinators see as more than a challenge. They see this QB as an obstacle.

Now, keep in mind they don’t have to be a “franchise” quarterback to be judged a success in this. They should be, after being taken in the top-10, but they don’t have to be. I left the 2009 and 2010 draft class as pending, but the final number I got showed me that there is a 47% chance that Gabbert becomes successful. Now, if we are to look at becoming a franchise-caliber quarterback, he has a 32% chance. These aren’t great odds to begin with, then add in that Jacksonvilel has high expectations on their QB’s due to overexposure to Peyton Manning.

Now, let’s take a closer look at Gabbert himself.

So how do you compete with in home HD TVs?  One way to do it is by making them even bigger than homes themselves.  Jerry Jones, the man responsible for creating the world’s biggest HDTV screen (72 ft by 160 ft – a 2,100 inch diagonal screen) at the time, has been rewarded with the NFL’s highest attendance the last three years running, in both average home attendance and percentage of stadium capacity filled.  Yep, number 1 three years running.  The three years prior to the new mondo TV screen stadium?  Number 22, three years in a row – in percentage of stadium capacity filled, which should correct for biases in total stadium size that a smaller stadium might face.  Hey, that may only be an n=1, but I’ve seen all I need to see – Mr. Khan, get us some new video boards please!

Video Boards + A Mustacheds -- Guaranteed Popularity. Source : Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

This being said, I wanted to look at attendance from the Jaguars angle.  Now, the blackout travesty of 2009 (as it shall henceforth be dubbed) is well-remembered by most Jaguars fans.  As it should be.  In one season, our average attendance dropped 15,000 people. Per Game.  Our 73ish-thousand capacity stadium was being filled by less than 50,000 people per week.  Rumors about the Jags moving to LA flew rampant, and then owner Wayne Weaver was being accosted by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell to address the issue.  What you may not realize from that year is that the Jaguars actually weren’t the worst team in the league at filling up the stadium.  For that you can thank 7^th overall pick Darrius Heyward-Bey and his Oakland Raiders.

The less successful Roger. Source: James Lang-US PRESSWIRE

Needless to say, the 2009 season was far more embarrassing for the Jaguars from an attendance point-of-view than it was from a record point-of-view.  And we’ve clearly bounced back – blackout free since ’93 2009.  But how do we look in relation to the rest of the league?  Are we still in Raider territory?  Well in relation to the rest of the league, we’re about as good at filling-up-the-seats as we are at winning games.  We were 7^th worst in the league this past year by record (hence the 7^th pick in the draft) and were 9^th worst (24^th) at filling up the stadium.  In 2010, we were 16^th worst by record and 12^th worst (21^st) at filling up the stadium.  While those numbers might not seem that great to the casual observer, our 73.9% stadium capacity in 2009 is a far cry from the 93.8% and 92.8% numbers we posted the last two years.  So we’re not exactly demolishing our competition when it comes to filling the stadium, but given our 2009 season, our records the last two years, and the incredible roster overhaul our team has seen in the past 2-3 seasons, the place where we’re at is a pretty remarkable feat for Team Teal and the organization as a whole.

Are we back to pre-2009 levels yet?  The answer to that would be a decisive no.  In 2008 and 2007, we saw stadium fill rates of 97.0% and 97.2%, good for 18^th in the league – basically middle of the pack.  So we still have a bit to go to reach the NFL average and get out of the LA discussions once and for all.  But, in going through the ESPN attendance data, I noticed something interesting.  Although the Jaguars have seen sub-par attendance the past 3-5 years at Everbank, we’ve seen better than average attendance on the road.  In fact, from 2008-2011, we were ranked an average of 10^th in road stadium capacity filling, and we were ranked ahead of NFL playoff teams like New England, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Baltimore last year.  What does this mean?! Is Blaine Gabbert unseating Tom Brady as the NFL’s favorite pretty boy QB?

Is Blaine "Tom Brady"-pretty? Source: Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

Are the Jaguars really valued more highly by their opponents’ fans than they are by their own fans?  Unlikely.  The underlying cause of our high ranking in filling stadiums on the road is likely the fact that we play teams that generally fill up the stadium.  Well, that or teams have been giving out sweet collectible Byron Leftwich bobbleheads when the Jaguars come into town.  Which do you think it is? (Hint: The Colts, Texans, and Titans ranked in the top 10 in stadium filling capacity the past three years).

– Zain Gowani

In order to keep this discussion more relevant to the modern Jaguars era, we will place an emphasis on the more recent years for the Jaguars rather than delving into the early days of the franchise.

The table showing the passing offense and the rushing offense over the last few years is pretty helpful in looking at the absolute lack of progress that was made under Jack Del Rio.  While the offense had some good seasons – oh the glory days of 2007 – there was no marked progress by the passing game, and the rushing offense wasn’t good enough to make the necessary contribution to win games consistently.

I like that the Jaguars hover around 2,000 yards of running in a season.  I think the amount shows a commitment to the run, which was one of the selling factors to me when I decided to start rooting for the Jags.  But the absolutely pedestrian numbers in the passing game shift the balance of the offense too far to the ground.  In the NFL a team is not necessarily balanced when the play calling is about 50/50.  For a team to eat up more yards and have a more effective offense, the play calling of a balanced offense seems to tend toward 60/40 in favor of the pass.  This is not necessarily true if you are the Saints, Packers, or Patriots.

Ok, I'm going to be honest, I didn't think Leftwich could even run....Source: Fernando Medina-US PRESSWIRE

The Jaguars have a tendency to lean heavy on the run, even when the passing offense is doing decently well.  In five of the seven years sampled, the Jags ran more run plays than they did passing plays.  A shift toward the pass occurred after the 2007 season when Garrard and Gray put up excellent numbers (28 touchdowns and 3rd most yards in our seven year sample).  The shift toward airing the bal out was not as effective as anticipated, however, and resulted in less offensive scoring despite gaining more yards.

The Jags have leaned run for a long time now.  It isn’t a bad strategy when the backfield is loaded with talent like Freddy T and MJD.  However, at some point an outside mind has to notice that the offense has been too reliant on the run and has grown stagnant over the most recent period of time.

That man appears to be Mike Mularkey and he is bringing a supporting cast with him in Bob Bratkowski and Jerry Sullivan that should help to reverse the Jaguars one-dimensional trend from recent years.  It isn’t that the team can’t throw the ball, it’s just that they aren’t as good as other teams.  Sure there needs to be better talent behind center, but sometimes an emphasis and increased repetition in games will lead to faster and stronger game-day development.

Some better receivers should help too.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims