Nov 3, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley (7) throws a pass against the Oregon Ducks at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

There are quarterback talents that occasionally fall out of the first round of the NFL Draft to land with an immensely happy team in the second round.  Andy Dalton is one and the Cincinnati Bengals couldn’t be happier.  Russell Wilson fell all the way to the third (he was a first round talent, just a little short) and the Seattle Seahawks couldn’t be more pleased.  Maybe this year it’ll be Matt Barkley.

Recently, Todd McShay published a two round mock draft that gave the Jaguars Dion Jordan at second overall and Matt Barkley at 33 overall.  As one of our readers wisely commented:

To get him in the second round would be a steal, in my opinion. The guy has been working in a pro-style offense literally since the 7th grade, and has been calling his own plays since the 8th grade (his high school coach had never allowed a QB to call his own plays, including Matt Leinart, until Barkley). That being said, I just can’t possibly believe that he will last until the second round.

I agree, he would be a steal in round two.  Barkley is a football junky.  He is a premium talent.  He knows the game inside and out and has shown that he has the arm to be successful in the NFL.  But he also had a really bad year during his senior season at USC.

Dec. 4, 2012; New York, NY, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley speaks at the NFF annual awards press conference at the Waldorf-Astoria as part of the 2012 NFF National Scholar-Athlete Class. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

That bad season alone isn’t enough to keep teams away from Barkley.  Barkley impressed everyone at the NFL Scouting Combine, even though he didn’t work out, and showed that he may have all the intangibles you look for in a franchise quarterback.  So, why won’t he be picked in the first round?

Really, it all comes down to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Geno Smith.  There are five “quarterback needy” teams in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  They are, in pick order, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2), the Oakland Raiders (3), the Arizona Cardinals (7), the Buffalo Bills (8), and the New York Jets (9).  You could arguably include the Kansas City Chiefs (1) and Minnesota Vikings (23, 25) as well.  I believe the Chiefs will stand pat following the trade for Alex Smith.  All the Geno Smith stuff in KC is just a smokescreen.  The Vikings are likely willing to give Christian Ponder another shot, though I would move past him if I were them.  Adrian Peterson can’t get 2,000 yards every season.

Of the Jaguars, Raiders, Cards, Bills, and Jets, the Jaguars, Cardinals, and Bills appear to be the most to take a quarterback in the first round.  The Raiders have a trade going through for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Flynn and have interest in Kevin Kolb if that falls through.  I believe that eliminates them from the round one QB sweepstakes.  The Bills have interest in Kevin Kolb and have Tarvaris Jackson, who is by no means a franchise quarterback, which could solve all of their problems.  While I think the Bills could take a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think they will if Geno Smith is off the board.  The Jets have too many holes on their roster to take a quarterback in the first round.  They also seem set on having a competition featuring ex-Jaguars starter David Garrard against the circus they had last season.

So, we have the Jaguars, Cardinals, and Bills with the Jags are Cards seeming the most likely.  If the Jaguars take Geno Smith, will either the Cards or Bills take Barkley at seven or eight?  Bleacher Report did an analysis of Barkley’s Pro Day and snuck this in there about new Arizona head coach Bruce Arians:

The Arizona Cardinals, too, would really like a new quarterback and have been linked to Barkley. However if you look at the quarterbacks that Bruce Arians has succeeded with—Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck—all have been bigger bodies with bigger arms with the ability to take big chances. That isn’t Matt Barkley. That isn’t even close to Matt Barkley.

I’m inclined to agree.  As good as Barkley can be, he isn’t a once-in-a-generation type talent.  He just doesn’t have the big arm to match players like Luck.  Will the Bills take a run at Barkley if he’s on the board if Arizona passes?  I don’t think so.

While Fansided site Buffalo Low Down has noted there is some fan push for Barkley, they seem to be interested in fixing some other holes during the draft.  The Bills have a private workout scheduled with Barkley (and USC wide receiver Robert Woods), but I see that more as a fact-finding mission than anything else at this point.  The Bills will have worked out five quarterbacks already this offseason.

I think the Cardinals, who desperately need to rebuild their offensive line, will focus on that major need in the first round.  It appears that the Bills are weighing their options and are unsettled in the build up to the draft.  If the Jaguars don’t take Geno Smith at second overall, one of the two may bite but the other may let Barkley slip.  If he does, he could go all the way to the second round because no team beyond pick nine is really needy at quarterback.

If that happens, a scenario like Mcshay laid out could result and the Jaguars could come away with a top pass rusher like Jordan and a top quarterback like Barkley.

- Luke N. Sims

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Dec 16, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys cornerback Mike Jenkins (21) celebrates a turnover against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Part of being a 2-14 team is being rejected.  After coming off such a slump of a season, the Jacksonville Jaguars simply don’t command the same amount of respect and same amount of influence that they once had.  It has been a number of years since the Jags were legitimately good but the team used to market itself as being just a couple pieces away.  Everyone knows the Jaguars are a complete rebuilding effort now.

Cornerback Mike Jenkins knows it and he’s taking the Jaguars’ contract offer and looking at other teams.  Most notably, the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders appear to be in the running.  If Jenkins is looking for a competitor, he likely won’t find one in either of those teams.

While I understand that he wants to check his other options and find out his real market value, you have to wonder why Jenkins is leaving Jacksonville to look around.  I’ve heard comments from Jags fans ranging from “he doesn’t want to be here” to “he just isn’t as excited as everyone else.”  Some have even gone as far as saying they don’t want Jenkins because he is checking his other options.  Based on what we know of owner Shahid Khan, I think it’s going down a little differently.

Khan told head coach Gus Bradley and GM Dave Caldwell to check their other options before he hired them.  He made sure they didn’t feel pressured to come to Jacksonville.  He made sure that this was the decision they wanted to make.  That process may be making its way through the entire culture of the Jacksonville Jaguars.  We know Jenkins has his offer in hand and we know he’s visiting with other teams, but the Jaguars may be fine with that.  They know they are thin at defensive back, but Jenkins won’t be a major problem solver even if he walks.

We’ll have to see how Jenkins takes his free agency tour, but I think he’s coming back to Jacksonville.  If he doesn’t, then he doesn’t and the Jags are no worse off than they would have been had the one-time Pro Bowler come to Jacksonville.

- Luke N. Sims

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You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

Dec 23, 2012; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; in the second half at Sun Life Stadium. Miami Dolphins defensive end Cameron Wake (91) hits Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) causing a fumble recovered by the Dolphins. Mandatory Credit: Miami won 24-10. Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was released by the Bills on Tuesday, opening him up for a possible new deal with another team.  The Jacksonville Jaguars could be that team.  The Jags have been looking for a quality (er…higher quality?) free agent quarterback or rookie prospect to bring in and compete with Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne this offseason.  Thus far, Fitzpatrick looks like the best option to push Gabbert and Henne and perhaps take the starting position himself.

It’s no secret that Fitzpatrick was overpaid in Buffalo, so the market may finally bring his value back down to what it should be.  If it looks like Fitzpatrick could be available for much cheaper than he was “worth” in Buffalo, the Jags could bring him down to be a catalyst for the anemic passers in Black and Teal.

I personally don’t think that Fitzpatrick will really be that much of an improvement (if at all) over Henne or Gabbert and could be a waste of money.  There are times when Fitzpatrick flashes, but most of the time he doesn’t do enough to keep his team afloat.  If the Jaguars wanted a mediocre game manager, they could keep Gabbert and not have a competition.  Even with Fitzpatrick available, I’m expecting the Jags to turn to the draft….or Drew Stanton.

- Luke N. Sims

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You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims