The OT market seemed to be hinging on the Jake Long situation. Seeing as how he signed with St. Louis late last night, the next best tackles should be getting snagged up shortly. These names include Sebastian Vollmer, Eric Winston, and Andre Smith. Many here at B&T believe that the Jaguars should sign a RT in free agency. As great of a route as that would be, I believe this year’s class of rookie tackles is entirely too deep to ignore. We’re in a position to snag arguably the best tackle in the entire draft, Eric Fisher. If we don’t go tackle with our No. 2 pick, the class is deep enough where we could get DJ Fluker at 33 where some draft sites have Jacksonville taking the Alabama lineman.

Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

I believe it would be much more feasible to sign a free agent corner. The 2013 free agent cornerback class is much deeper, and there’s plenty of solid DBs still available who should be much more affordable than any of the tackles remaining on the market. For instance, Sean Smith got the most of any cornerback and his $5.5 mil annual average doesn’t even put him in the league’s top 12 corners. The Jaguars could afford some of these cornerbacks.

So the way I’m looking at it: A deep class of rookie offensive tackles + an exclusive shallow group of free agent tackles that could actually come in and start + a deep class of free agent DBs + ( in comparison to rookie offensive tackles) a shallow group of rookie DBs=more free agent DBs could be signed.

Take a look at a talent like Brent Grimes. He’s coming off achilles surgery so it could be risky. He’s 29 and a little undersized for Gus Bradley’s and Dave Caldwell’s ideal signing. Caldwell is undoubtedly familiar with Grimes from his time in Atlanta.  Grimes is a player we could possibly take a chance on while not breaking the bank to do so. There’s no one else on the roster who could challenge him for a starting role, that’s for sure.

Another talent that is interesting is Dallas Cowboys CB Mike Jenkins. He was a first round pick in 2008, and has a pro bowl under his belt. He’s young and talented, but fell by the wayside when Dallas overpaid Brandon Carr and drafted Morris Claiborne with the 6th overall pick last year. Jenkins has starting experience, and his market seems close to dead silent. I wonder if he’s on the radar.

I’m thinking there’s a good chance that we just re-sign FB Greg Jones and C Brad Meester and call it a day at that. That would leave holes at several different positions. Could we possibly fill all of them via the draft? No. No team ever fills every single gap in the roster. There’s always going to be soft spots. No NFL team has their roster locked and loaded with 53 premier players.

What Jacksonville has are glaring holes. Holes in the secondary and holes along the offensive line. The defensive line has soft spots, but there are players who can step in and start or rotate and develop. I’m referring to flat out holes. Who will play safety? Who will play cornerback for us? Who will our right tackle be?

Now this would usually send any fan into a panic, but not this guy. What’s been lost (Landry, Mathis, Cox, Ross, Robinson, Knighton) wasn’t really getting the job done anyway. I’d much rather give a draft pick and/or UDFAs a chance to battle it out at some of these spots.

Caldwell and Bradley have been straight up honest with us so far. We can count on having a young team, creating competition at every position. Spending too much in free agency automatically eliminates any competion for that said player. You pretty much buy them a starting spot. The front office must decide, however, if what’s left on the market regarding offensive tackles and defensive backs has better value than a rookie at those positions.

-David R. Johns

Brent Grimes didn’t look this disappointed too often in 2011. Source: Andrew Weber- USA TODAY Sports

First, now let’s look at how these guys are rated this season.  According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Falcons CB Brent Grimes is their top free agent cornerback for the 2013.  Although Grimes was only limited to 52 snaps this season and had an average -1.2 rating during the season, Grimes’s rating is supported by his incredible +16.0 rating in 2011.  He also allowed the third worst completion percentage and tenth-worst QB rating for those that decided to throw his way.   Following Grimes is Lions CB Chris Houston, whose +7.4 grade and consistent play throughout the year solidified his place on PFF’s list.  Bengals CB Adam Jones rounds out the top three, as “top flight” players like Aqib Talib, Sean Smith, Cary Williams, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie ranked 4, 7, 5, and 8 on PFF’s list.  This list only ranked PFF’s top 10 free agent cornerbacks, and Jaguars cornerback Derek Cox was not on this list (he posted a -2.5 grade on the season).  By comparison, NBC Sports’ ProFootballTalk.com (PFT) ranked Rodgers-Cromartie, Talib, and Smith as the top three free agent cornerbacks available, followed by Williams, Houston and Grimes (Cox was eighth on this list).

If you look at their grades for this season, PFF’s list pretty much follows suit, as their perception of cornerback value is graded on production, particularly recent production, in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league that the NFL has become.  Of the players on this list, Houston and Jones graded out as having the best seasons in 2012.  Interestingly enough, the next two best players – Greg Toler (+6.8) and Bradley Fletcher (+3.7) – were rated 10 and 9 respectively.  However, this is likely due to the fact that both Toler and Fletcher were part-time players in 2012, each logging under 400 snaps.  Sean Smith (-3.6), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (-7.1), and Cary Williams (-3.2) actually had the lowest graded seasons on this list, all having incredibly inconsistent seasons according to PFF.  Intriguingly enough, they are the top three cornerbacks on PFT’s  ranks, which is either a reflection of the quality of analysis that comes from the site, a reflection of popular opinion, or both.

Towards the end of the season, PFF did an interesting “Signature Stats” article on cornerbacks, assessing “chain-moving plays” (first downs or touchdowns) given up by cornerbacks, both in terms of total numbers and on a per-snap basis.  Interestingly enough, two of the “top flight” guys from this year sit at the top of the total numbers list – Sean Smith and Cary Williams – and Antoine Cason sits at 6 – all of whom gave up over 40 combined touchdowns and first downs by that juncture in the season .

But how much of this was due to the sheer amount of snaps they played?  Each of these guys were on pace to play over 1000 snaps by that juncture in the season, while the highest graded free agent corner for 2012, Adam Jones, played over 40% less.   The per-snap numbers tell a different tale, with Aqib Talib at #2, and Cary Williams, Derek Cox, and Sean Smith each in the top 15.  Guess it wasn’t a snap-count thing after all.  How about on the other side of the coin?  Adam Jones actually ranked 7^th amongst all cornerbacks in “chain-moving plays” allowed per snap, with Chris Houston coming in five spots later.  This shouldn’t be too surprising as these two players ended up as the free agent cornerbacks with the two highest graded 2012 seasons.

Sean Smith played more like a practice squad guy than a top flight free agent in 2011 and 2012. Source: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

But looking at 2012-2013 stats doesn’t tell us anything about the effects of the contract year on its own – we need to look at 2011-2012 stats for comparison.  Ideally of course, we’d like to have the trailing three year averages on all these players along with their yearly valuations, but unfortunately NFL player databases aren’t as thorough as my E*Trade Account… yet.  So let’s take a quick look at 2011.  We already got a look at Brent Grimes’s awesome 2011 season as the reason for his high ranking on PFF’s free agent cornerback list this offseason, so let’s look at the 2011 statistics for some of the other “top guys”.  Talib graded out to having a pretty good season with a +3.8 grade in pass coverage and +2.7 run defense rating, despite giving up an awful 109.8 QB rating when QBs went his way (7^th worst in the league) ; as a result, he got sent to a better team for a chance at the playoffs and more.  Sean Smith, on the other hand, had an awful 2011 season, posting a -16.1 rating which was the third-worst among qualifying corners.  Based on production alone, it’s hard to see why his name carries so much weight.  Speaking of, Cary Williams also didn’t exactly have a stellar season.  He was the sixth most targeted corner in 2011 and gave up the eighth-most yardage.  But everyone seems to forget about that if you have two good playoff games and your team wins the Super Bowl.

The big winners in 2012 had slightly different 2011 seasons.  Chris Houston, under pressure to bounce back from a bad 2010 season had a very good 2011 season, posting a +3.7 grade on the year.  Adam Jones, however, was merely average, posting a +0.8 grade on the year.  Finally, the Jaguars’ main man Derek Cox, by comparison, had an incredible 2011 season, posting a +6.8 grade on the year.  While he didn’t post a top 5 CB grade overall, he did put up some elite numbers, posting a reception rate less than the top 5 graded PFF corners in 2011 and a yards/catch rate better than the best of those corners, Darelle Revis.  His season was incredibly impressive considering how bad his 2009 rookie campaign was (his -16.4 grade besting even Sean Smith’s impressively bad 2011 season).

Adam Jones: ex-convict turned advanced-stat darling. Source: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN ranked the top 50 corners after the 2011 season and incredibly, their list looked very similar to PFF’s and PFT’s rankings this year, with Talib (25) and Smith (34) following Grimes (10), and Rodgers-Cromartie (37), Cason (38), Houston (41), and Cox (50) not far behind.  The biggest winners from 2011 and 2012 were clearly Adam Jones and Chris Houston, who increased their grades on the year by 3.7 and 9.7 points respectively.  These will be the primary players whose contracts we’ll judge to analyze the effects of the contract year.  The big drop-offs in 2012 were sustained by Brent Grimes and Derek Cox, although both were plagued by injury.  Grimes’ injury was much earlier in the season and limited him to just 52 snaps, which will likely result in his average-graded play as being somewhat fluky, while Cox’s play may be seen as a regression back towards his play in 2009 and 2010.  Teams seem to be hot on his trail though as he’s a young corner about to enter the prime of his career, so it’ll be interesting to see what the market brings him and what effect a poor contract-year has on his pay.  The most intriguing player based on these stats is Dolphins corner Sean Smith.  Despite the clearly sub-par grades that Sean Smith got in 2011 and 2012, he has still ranked very highly in media rankings, and by all accounts, it seems like he’ll get highly overpaid simply looking at production alone.  Of course, GMs look at more than just production – they look at scheme fit, they look at the recent trend of big and physical corners, and they still see the potential oozing from the 25 year old 6’4 corner bound to disappoint the big-spending team that comes Smith’s way.  Aside from his measurables, which are truly the seductive sirens of the NFL, Smith did actually improve drastically from 2011 to 2012, going from epically bad to merely bad.  If you think that deserves the top free agent cornerback deal this offseason, proceed at your own risk.

At the end of the day though, remember that an analysis such as this has limitations.  Cornerback play is affected by scheme – by what a player is asked to do – and by other factors, including defensive line play, quality of opponents, and their defensive teammates.  Moreover, these nuances have effects during the offseason – what a player gets isn’t necessarily an accurate representation of the average market value the 32 NFL teams would place on him; it’s the highest value placed on him by a team that likely sees him as a fit philosophically with what they’re trying to do with their defense.  But that doesn’t mean this is equivalent to a player’s highest value.  For one, this only applies to teams that have available space at the position in question (in this case cornerback) and enough salary-cap space to make such an offer.  Furthermore, players may take slightly or significantly less money for other factors – scheme fit, a chance to be on a winning team, or even personal factors like family stability.

– Zain Gowani

Rodgers-Cromartie can look good when he’s playing well.  But then he can look pretty poor at other times.  Source:  Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Outside of Derek Cox and maybe Mike Harris, there is a serious deficiency at cornerback for the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Aaron Ross has proven to be less of an impact player than originally anticipated, Rashean Mathis has lost a step and is set to hit free agency, William Middleton struggled in 2012 and is set to hit free agency, and players like Kevin Rutland and Antwon Blake are likely nothing more than just guys.

While there are a couple really good cornerback options in the draft, it isn’t likely that the Jags take one of the top prospects at number two overall and it isn’t likely that one of the top prospects slips to number 33.  With Cox set to test the waters in free agency, the Jags may be in need of a starting caliber corner and a third corner.  So, who’s available in free agency?  Here are three guys the Jags should look at.

Brent Grimes

• While the Jags may not want to replace the oft-injured Cox with someone who only played 52 snaps before injury in 2012, Grimes is a playmaker that deserves some attention.  In 2010 he had a ridiculous 23 passes defended to go with five interceptions.  Grimes’ talent makes him worthy of at least a conversation, but he may not be the best fit for the Jags.

Adam “Pac-Man” Jones

• Seriously, the guy can play.  Jones hasn’t been as much of a headache lately as he was early in his career, and his play has risen with his character.  He hasn’t had an interception since 2010, but he still has the skills to play well and forces quarterbacks to look the other way.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

• DRC had 17 passes defended and three interceptions in only eight starts last season.  He was lost amid the tumultuous Philadelphia Eagles season but he has the skills to be a top corner in the league.  Don’t discount him for a couple bad years in Philly following his trade as part of the Kevin Kolb deal.  He is a clutch player who was instrumental in bringing the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl.

There are a number of decent corners available in free agency, but if the Jags get really serious, I think that these three players deserve heavy consideration.  Anybody you’d like to see?

- Luke N. Sims

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