Nov 3, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley (7) throws a pass against the Oregon Ducks at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

There are quarterback talents that occasionally fall out of the first round of the NFL Draft to land with an immensely happy team in the second round.  Andy Dalton is one and the Cincinnati Bengals couldn’t be happier.  Russell Wilson fell all the way to the third (he was a first round talent, just a little short) and the Seattle Seahawks couldn’t be more pleased.  Maybe this year it’ll be Matt Barkley.

Recently, Todd McShay published a two round mock draft that gave the Jaguars Dion Jordan at second overall and Matt Barkley at 33 overall.  As one of our readers wisely commented:

To get him in the second round would be a steal, in my opinion. The guy has been working in a pro-style offense literally since the 7th grade, and has been calling his own plays since the 8th grade (his high school coach had never allowed a QB to call his own plays, including Matt Leinart, until Barkley). That being said, I just can’t possibly believe that he will last until the second round.

I agree, he would be a steal in round two.  Barkley is a football junky.  He is a premium talent.  He knows the game inside and out and has shown that he has the arm to be successful in the NFL.  But he also had a really bad year during his senior season at USC.

Dec. 4, 2012; New York, NY, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley speaks at the NFF annual awards press conference at the Waldorf-Astoria as part of the 2012 NFF National Scholar-Athlete Class. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

That bad season alone isn’t enough to keep teams away from Barkley.  Barkley impressed everyone at the NFL Scouting Combine, even though he didn’t work out, and showed that he may have all the intangibles you look for in a franchise quarterback.  So, why won’t he be picked in the first round?

Really, it all comes down to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Geno Smith.  There are five “quarterback needy” teams in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  They are, in pick order, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2), the Oakland Raiders (3), the Arizona Cardinals (7), the Buffalo Bills (8), and the New York Jets (9).  You could arguably include the Kansas City Chiefs (1) and Minnesota Vikings (23, 25) as well.  I believe the Chiefs will stand pat following the trade for Alex Smith.  All the Geno Smith stuff in KC is just a smokescreen.  The Vikings are likely willing to give Christian Ponder another shot, though I would move past him if I were them.  Adrian Peterson can’t get 2,000 yards every season.

Of the Jaguars, Raiders, Cards, Bills, and Jets, the Jaguars, Cardinals, and Bills appear to be the most to take a quarterback in the first round.  The Raiders have a trade going through for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Flynn and have interest in Kevin Kolb if that falls through.  I believe that eliminates them from the round one QB sweepstakes.  The Bills have interest in Kevin Kolb and have Tarvaris Jackson, who is by no means a franchise quarterback, which could solve all of their problems.  While I think the Bills could take a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think they will if Geno Smith is off the board.  The Jets have too many holes on their roster to take a quarterback in the first round.  They also seem set on having a competition featuring ex-Jaguars starter David Garrard against the circus they had last season.

So, we have the Jaguars, Cardinals, and Bills with the Jags are Cards seeming the most likely.  If the Jaguars take Geno Smith, will either the Cards or Bills take Barkley at seven or eight?  Bleacher Report did an analysis of Barkley’s Pro Day and snuck this in there about new Arizona head coach Bruce Arians:

The Arizona Cardinals, too, would really like a new quarterback and have been linked to Barkley. However if you look at the quarterbacks that Bruce Arians has succeeded with—Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck—all have been bigger bodies with bigger arms with the ability to take big chances. That isn’t Matt Barkley. That isn’t even close to Matt Barkley.

I’m inclined to agree.  As good as Barkley can be, he isn’t a once-in-a-generation type talent.  He just doesn’t have the big arm to match players like Luck.  Will the Bills take a run at Barkley if he’s on the board if Arizona passes?  I don’t think so.

While Fansided site Buffalo Low Down has noted there is some fan push for Barkley, they seem to be interested in fixing some other holes during the draft.  The Bills have a private workout scheduled with Barkley (and USC wide receiver Robert Woods), but I see that more as a fact-finding mission than anything else at this point.  The Bills will have worked out five quarterbacks already this offseason.

I think the Cardinals, who desperately need to rebuild their offensive line, will focus on that major need in the first round.  It appears that the Bills are weighing their options and are unsettled in the build up to the draft.  If the Jaguars don’t take Geno Smith at second overall, one of the two may bite but the other may let Barkley slip.  If he does, he could go all the way to the second round because no team beyond pick nine is really needy at quarterback.

If that happens, a scenario like Mcshay laid out could result and the Jaguars could come away with a top pass rusher like Jordan and a top quarterback like Barkley.

- Luke N. Sims

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Dec. 16, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA: Arizona Cardinals cornerback Greg Toler against the Detroit Lions at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Jags will likely be looking for one or two cornerbacks this offseason.  If Derek Cox does leave the team in free agency, then the holes get very wide in the secondary.  2012 rookie Mike Harris worked his way up from the bottom of the depth chart to starter during the season and he will likely remain there with Rashean Mathis and William Middleton set to his free agency, and Aaron Ross continuing to underwhelm.  Even if Cox does stay with the team, his injury history suggests that the Jags will need another player who can step up.

Enter Greg Toler.

Not included in my list of free agent cornerbacks to watch, Toler is a suggestion from commenter Vallenii, and I’m glad he brought him up.  With the Jags unlikely to spend much money in free agency, the team will be looking for affordable and effective players to fill voids.  His contract in 2012 with the Arizona Cardinals was for one year and $1.26 million.  The Jags could likely space out money over more time if they feel that Toler can be an effective third cornerback and occasional starter.

Toler had two starts in 2012 against the Atlanta Falcons and St. Louis Rams.  In those two games, he allowed 45% of passes targeted toward the receiver he was covering to be caught.  This is only a few points higher than his season average of 41.5% allowed (best in the league).  In comparison, Harris allowed 65.9% of passes his way to be caught, and Cox allowed 60.7% to be caught.  Harris and Toler were both targeted 41 times while Cox was targeted 89 times.

Of Toler, Harris, and Cox, Toler forced quarterbacks to the lowest QB rating (51.5) on the season.  Cox (69) and Harris (81.7) were not near the worst in the league, but they were considerably far behind Toler.  In fact, Toler was fifth in the league in opposing team QB rating, being just ahead of Tim Jennings and just behind Lardarius Webb.

So, will the Jags want Toler?  More importantly, will he be cheap?

The Jags will have an interest in Toler for two reasons.

1. His size.  Another commenter, Dave Nelson, had this to say about what Bradley wants in a cornerback: “Jacksonville needs to get similar corners to what Bradley worked with in Seattle. Tough, physical, tall, well-built corners.”  I agree.  At 5’11″ 191 pounds, Toler could very well be the well-built, physical corner Bradley wants, even if he is four inches shorter than Richard Sherman
2. Gus Bradley is familiar with him.  Playing in the NFC West, I guarantee that Bradley is familiar with what Toler can do and how he operates.  This could be a double edged sword for Toler.  While I like his production, Bradley may have better insight into it and be less impressed.  Then again, maybe he is a player that Bradley has coveted during his time with Seattle.

So, will he be cheap?

$1.26 isn’t exactly super cheap, but the Jags wouldn’t be paying for an unpolished player.  Toler was drafted in the fourth round of the 2009 draft and continues to impress each year.  He is behind strong competition on an excellent Cardinals defense.  I think he may want to prove something with a different team.  He has injury issues, which has contributed to him only starting two games in 2012, despite being named a starter in 2010.  If the Jags are willing to take a swing at another player who is talented but has the potential for injury, then Toler could be their man.

CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco called Toler a value player, and it doesn’t take long to see that he’s right.  The question now becomes, is he so good that Arizona desperately tries to bring him back?  Or will the Jags be able to swoop in and get a decent corner for relatively no trouble?

- Luke N. Sims

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Despite now backing up Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith is still getting plenty of love and attention from those around the NFL.  Source: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith will seek his release this offseason, but where will he go if the Niners let him?  While his fate is in the hands of the organization while they still hold his contract, that $8.5 million he’s due later this year will start to get heavier and heavier the longer they look for a team willing to take on his bloated contract.

While Smith probably isn’t the Messiah for most teams, he could be an immediate upgrade for a number of franchises looking for someone who can at least throw the ball accurately.

So, where will he land via trade or free agency?

Arizona Cardinals

• The Cardinals learned the hard way (thanks Philadelphia) that trading for a highly touted quarterback can bite you in the butt.  While they may not be willing to shell out in a big trade for Smith, you have to think that Arizona would be interested in landing a guy who would make Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer all irrelevant.  For now, don’t expect Arizona to be active in trade discussions but definitely look for them to be waiting if Smith gets released.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Head coach Gus Bradley can’t talk about players currently under contract with other teams, but you’ve got to imagine he’d be pretty eager to get a veteran quarterback with some big wins under his belt involved in the quarterback competition he wants.  Bradley just said there are some things he likes about Blaine Gabbert, but it would be tough to deny that Smith would be an upgrade or, at the very least, really good competition that finally pushes Gabbert over the top.  A trade would be a big splash for first-year GM Dave Caldwell but the Jags need to hold onto their valuable players and draft picks as they begin a rebuild.  Like Arizona, the Jags could be very active if Smith is released.

New York Jets

• The Jets may be the most quarterback desperate team in the league.  While Mark Sanchez gave them some wins early in his career, he has since regressed significantly.  Tim Tebow isn’t the answer, and as a much good as Greg McElroy is, he’s probably just a backup.  The Jets probably can’t afford to trade for Smith, but it wouldn’t be shocking if head coach Rex Ryan and the media-hungry franchise tried to get some attention by making the move.

Where else could Smith end up?  Does San Fran have a shot at dealing him?

- Luke N. Sims

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You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims