Jan 31, 2012; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots offensive guard Donald Thomas (64) is interviewed by recording artist Ciara (left) during media day in preparation for Super Bowl XLVI against the New York Giants at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Slow entrances to free agency can be tough to bear, especially after a 2-14 season.  Jacksonville Jaguars fans, like myself, that torture themselves looking at Twitter will note that the teams around the AFC South seem to be improving while the Jags get left behind.  Like head coach Gus Bradley said, there is a plan and we’ve got to stick to it.

The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts in particular are making big splashes.  The Titans are a lot further away than just a few pieces, so it is interesting to see them making so many moves when they could use some roster help pretty much all over.  The Colts, as was apparent during the 2012 season, are a lot closer to complete than many of us had assumed in their first official rebuild year.

Here are the moves around the AFC South as of 7:40 am 3/13:

Indianapolis Colts

• signed OT Gosder Cherilus to a five-year contract
• signed CB Greg Toler to a multi-year contract
• signed OLB Erik Walden to a four-year, $16 million contract
• signed OG Donald Thomas to a multi-year contract
• signed DE/OLB Lawrence Sidbury to a multi-year contract
• signed CB Darius Butler to a two-year contract

Tennessee Titans

• signed OG Andy Levitre to a five-year, $39 million contract
• signed TE Delanie Walker to a four-year contract
• re-signed FB Quinn Johnson

Both the Houston Texans and Jaguars are waiting it out to pick up some value free agents later in free agency.  Smart plays are how strong teams are built, we’ll have to see who is brought in as the official NFL New Year marches on.

- Luke N. Sims

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You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims

Jan 5, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) reacts after a tackle against the Cincinnati Bengals during the third quarter of the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Reliant Stadium. The Texans defeated the Bengals 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday we covered how the Jacksonville Jaguars did in Pro Football Focus’ latest featured stat, performance based value.  Now we’ll look at how the rest of the teams in the AFC South did.  Here’s the basic idea behind PFF’s stat:

We set out to take the highest cap hit at a position and match that up with that position’s highest-rated player. Then take the second-highest cap hit and match it with the second-highest-graded player, and so on. All players who were either active or inactive for at least one game were included, and players who spent the entire year on injured reserve or as free agents, ignored. The goal being to set salaries right, based solely on player performance during the 2012 season.

PFF revealed that the Jags did quite poorly in terms of finding value.  How did their value differential stack up against the rest of the AFC South?

1. Houston Texans: +$26 million
2. Indianapolis Colts:  +$15.6 million
3. Tennessee Titans:  +$670 thousand
4. Jacksonville Jaguars:  -$37.3 million

The Jaguars and the Texans are decidedly on the opposite ends of the spectrum.  The Texans got ridiculously good value out of their players while the Jaguars overvalued far too many players.  The Titans managed to compensate their players closer to their true value better than the Jags and they finished with a poor record in 2012 as well.

Here are the top-5 most undervalued players in the AFC South:

1. J.J. Watt, DE, Texans:  +$15.7 million
2. Derrick Morgan, DE, Titans:  +$9.1 million
3. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts:  +$7.2 million
4. Jurrell Casey, DT, Titans:  +$6.8 million
5. Duane Brown, OT, Texans:  +$6.1 million

Here are the top-5 most overvalued players in the AFC South:

1. Dwight Freeney, DE/OLB, Colts: -$13.1 million
2. Chris Johnson, HB, Titans:  -$10.1 million
3. Paul Posluszny, LB, Jaguars:  -$5.8 million
4. Arian Foster, RB, Texans:  -$5.4 million
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars:  -$5.4 million

Of note is the immense undervaluing of J.J. Watt, which is sure to change when he finally gets a new contract, and the high overvaluing of two Jaguars despite having nobody of significant undervaluing.  The Titans managed their money well, with only CJ2K and his massive contract bloating into the top-5 of most overvalued.  As the Colts’ young players mature, much like Freeney has done during his time with the team, they will likely have more players end up in the overvalued category.

PFF makes a point of noting that the performance based values are not an indication of future value of a player, it is simply a comparison of value to the amount of money and production of players and their positions.  Based on how the AFC South shook out in 2012, it seems to be a pretty good reaffirmation of how well a team has done over the past season.

- Luke N. Sims

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Foster was instrumental in getting things done again for the Texans.  Source:  Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans beat the Cincinnati Bengals on Wildcard weekend for the second year in a row.  The Bengals were never able to get the ball moving, with Andy Dalton completing a mere four of ten passes for three yards in the first half.  Dalton ended up finishing with a more respectable (though certainly not playoff caliber) 14 of 30 for 127 yards and pick.  The Bengals simply could not move the ball against the Texans defense.  The Texans were able to do what they wanted and managed an interception to go with sacks from J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed.

The Texans offense was clicking as well.  Matt Schaub, starting for the first time in the postseason, finished with a decent 29 of 38 for 262 yards and an interception.  The interception was returned for a touchdown, which brought the game much closer than it should have been.  Arian Foster was the primary reason the Texans were able to hang on and win.  While kicking four field goals, the Texans needed clock management on their side.  Foster delivered with a 140 yard performance on 32 carries with the lone offensive touchdown of the game.

The Texans finished the day with a 19 to 13 home playoff victory.

The Indianapolis Colts struggled much more than their AFC South counterpart in their improbable playoff appearance.  While being bounced from the postseason by the Baltimore Ravens is tough, it would have been a ridiculous improbability for the team to continue to beat the odds.  Despite a decent showing from Andrew Luck (much more decent than Andy Dalton!) of 28/54 for 288 and pick, the Colts were not able to keep pace with the Ravens as Baltimore consistently found ways to exploit the Colts defense.  Despite the game being 10-6 at halftime, the Ravens were able to limit the Colts to only one more field goal while marching down the field for two more 70+ yard touchdown drives.

The Colts offense did not click as well as it could have.  Luck was not as strong as he had been during the regular season and the game plan was pass heavy despite 91 yards on the ground from Vick Ballard.  Reggie Wayne’s nine receptions for 114 yards was not enough of a balance to Anquan Boldin’s 145 yards on five grabs and the time management offense of the Colts simply did not produce enough points to compete against the more explosive Ravens.  The Ravens were able to eat up more yardage on the ground (175) than the Colts (151) with only two more carries in the game.

The Colts finished the day losing 9-24.

With two teams representing the AFC South again in the playoffs, it’s nice to see at least the division champion continuing to play.

- Luke N. Sims

Feel free to leave comments on here or visit us at Facebook or Twitter!

You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims