Nov 18, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert (11) on the sidelines against the Houston Texans in the third quarter at Reliant Stadium. The Texans defeated the Jaguars 43-37. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

I was perusing the interwebs (if one can properly peruse the interwebs) and I stumbled upon a Football Outsiders article from before the 2011 NFL Draft.  The article uses the Lewin Career Forecast metric (mentioned by Tony Khan in this article) to list 2011 quarterback prospects.  The prospects are listed based on the their DYAR (defense-adjusted yards per replacement).  Here are the prospects listed by DYAR:

• Andy Dalton: 1,616
• Ricky Stanzi: 1,305
• Colin Kaepernick: 1,044
• Blaine Gabbert: 656
• Jake Locker: 569
• Ryan Mallet: 471
• Christian Ponder: 413
• Cam Newton: 175

I was a big fan of both Stanzi and Dalton (in that order) heading into the 2011 draft but didn’t know that either of them were ranked this high until now.  Surprisingly, none of the top three were drafted in the first round.  Those who follow football know that both Dalton and Kaepernick are emerging as very fine quarterbacks who likely should have been taken instead of Gabbert, Locker, or Ponder in the first round.  Stanzi, taken in the fifth round, is the major outlier here.

But back to Gabbert.

In the 2012 season I very boldly (and quite possibly, stupidly) proclaimed that Gabbert will be an above average quarterback.  My enthusiasm came in his second season and after I was hoping for just about anything positive to come from the Jags.  FO didn’t have the same hope and optimism that I did, when they looked at the 2011 NFL draft prospects:

Here is where maybe you get the sense that this isn’t the best year for low-risk quarterback prospects. From Gabbert on down, every quarterback prospect for 2011 is lower than every quarterback prospect from 2009-2010 except for Mark Sanchez. Gabbert is a little low on games started, a little high in completion rate, and basically average on all the other variables in the system, so LCF v2.0 thinks he’s going to be a very average quarterback. His projection is close to the average projection for all the players in the data set used to create LCF v2.0, which is 604. An average quarterback can be a very useful thing on the right team, but it is not something you want to get with a top ten pick.

So far Gabbert is proving that LCF can be a pretty accurate statistic.  The Jags are giving Gabbert one last chance to fight for his spot to remain an NFL starting quarterback.  It’s his chance to prove that he is more than just an average quarterback.  There are Gabbert apologists, Gabbert optimists, and Gabbert haters, but until he improves his game, he’s just giving more weight to a metric that predicted he wouldn’t be better than he is currently proving to be.

Without improvement he may end up nothing more than a statistic.

- Luke N. Sims

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Blaine Gabbert was a knee jerk reaction pick            Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Punter Bryan Anger, out of California, was one of the biggest surprises in the 2011 draft. A punter never goes in the third round; especially when holes could have been filled on both sides of the ball. Yet as the season goes on, the Anger pick makes more sense, but not because he’s a game changer.

Since Gene Smith has become General Manager for the Jaguars, he has professed a style of drafting players who are the BAP, or best available player. According to Smith BAP also includes being academically sound as well as being a captain for multiple years. In 2011 The Jaguars moved up to the 10th selection from the 16th, trading with the Washington Redskins, to select Blaine Gabbert. While I do think Gabbert was a great selection at the time and still do, better picks could have been made. The Titans had selected Jake Locker two picks before, the Gabbert selection was a knee jerk reaction. As was Anger. Projections slated the Jaguars to fill the even bigger void of defensive end with either J.J. Watt or Ryan Kerrigan, which in hind sight, were much better selections.

At the time, David Garrard was coming off an improved season from 2009. He was slated to start, even being introduced by the organization as the starter for the season. He had three years remaining on his contract, and coming off the lockout, he would give the team the best chance to win while Gabbert learned the offense on the sideline. Yet injury cut him short early in the preseason, which resulted in him getting the axe.  It was a knee jerk reaction. Gabbert was forced to start after a horrendous week 2 performance from Luke McCown. The Jaguars ended up going 5-11.

If the Jaguars had not drafted Gabbert, the Jaguars may have done worse as a whole if they would have had to rely on McCown or a free agent pick up, but that misses the mark of the article. In this year’s draft, Justin Blackmon and Andre Branch were drafted with the first two picks, in order to improve both wide receiver and defense end positions. These positions should have been filled the year before, but the Gabbert pick cost both a first and second round pick. In the third round, the Jaguars knee jerk reaction once again forced them to stray away from a BAP mentality, taking Anger out of need.

Punter Bryan Anger was needed to give the team a chance Mandatory Credit: Phil Sears-US PRESSWIRE

The Jaguars would need a punter this year to make up for last year’s bandages in free agency. Matt Turk and Nick Harris were not performing to expectations, forcing the former to be cut for the latter. Harris was eventually let go as well. Anger was picked in the third round because pressure would be on the offense again this year. With the defense coming off a great year, a punter would help pin opposing offenses deep into their own zone, which would result in a shorter field for a struggling Blaine Gabbert.
Yet injury and poor performances have once again sundered the team, resulting in a current 1-3 record. If the Jaguars are to improve for the future, the draft has no more room for knee jerk reactions.

- Antonio Furgiuele

Could David Mims be Gene's next diamond in the rough?

Editor’s Note: This article was published yesterday evening, but we have moved it back up to the top because of the numerous UDFA reports Jason and I were putting up. Signings happen today!

About a week ago, Jason Love put together his list of the potential college free agents the Jaguars might/should sign, so now its my turn. My list is almost completely different then Jason’s candidates, but you will see one or two players that we’d both like to see in teal. I also ignored some positions (RB, for example) where the Jaguars are set and tried to concentrate on the key positions where help is needed. Let’s get to the names…

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