Jan 18, 2013; Jacksonville FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars new head coach Gus Bradley speaks as owner Shad Khan and new general manager Dave Caldwell listen during a press conference at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

As the grumpy uncle of Black and Teal, you might be surprised that I’m actually pretty optimistic about the ’13 Jaguars season, largely due to this past weekend. No, I didn’t lose my mind or critical sense on my long hiatus. I won’t predict a playoff run or a Superbowl title. But quite frankly the Jaguars are now in a situation where no matter how this season ends, they will be in a good spot.

During the 3 days of the draft I experienced a few mood swings. At first I really didn’t like the Joeckel pick, and I had mixed feelings with the Gratz selection and the cornerback situation. On the other hand, I loved the two safety picks and I’m exited about the 2 new offensive weapons as well. And I noticed something on Saturday night. while the defense will be an “under construction” project this year, the offense is actually almost set.  Almost, because I still have serious question marks about the interior offensive line, especially at left guard and maybe at center. But other than that, it’s kind of complete.  If Maurice Jones-Drew will return and play like he used to, the Jaguars will have a top tier RB, the best receiving group since the Jimmy Smith- Keenan McCardell era, headlined by 2 real play makers (Shorts & Blackmon), a top tier tight end, a top 10 LT and maybe the best player of this draft at right tackle.

Nov 8, 2012; Jacksonville FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert (11) throws to a receiver during the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Douglas Jones-USA TODAY Sports

So everything is set, except for the most important piece of the football team: the quarterback. Despite every expectation, Dave Caldwell didn’t spend a draft pick to address the position. It seems, they really want to know what they have in Blaine Gabbert and the plan is to surround him with every tool he needs: protection, quality skill players, taylor made offense, and good coaches.

And competition.

In the last two years Gabbert was the first choice. In ’11 because he was a top 10 pick (who should have sat and learned that season…), while in ’12 he earned it in the preseason (but quite frankly Gene Smith wanted him to start anyway). Now the starting job is up for grabs and I really believe that now performance and performance only will matter, and if the the best QB will be an UDFA rookie in training camp, then he will be the guy. By the way – I give Caldwell credit for picking up a quality QB project via college free agency who was projected as a middle round prospect. I like Matt Scott’s attitude too ” Got a chip on my shoulder I’m coming for someone’s spot.”  Gabbert and Chad Henne better be ready. I project Scott will be on the Jaguars roster this fall.

So unless another serious injury occurs, we will get the answer of the most important question from the day Gabbert was drafted – Is he the man? If the answer is yes, I think OC Jedd Fisch’s system and the talent surrounding #11 will give him the spark everybody in River City expected from tier Top 10 choice QB, Then the Jaguars can be contenders sooner then everybody expecting and even this year they can make a significant leap forward.

And what if the answer is no? That there is no real starter quality quarterback on the roster right now at the position? Then most likely the Jaguars will have (again) a Top 5 pick. I know the “draft a QB next year” mantra is boring and/or frustrating, but this past draft proved that this year wasn’t the right time to get the most important piece of the jigsaw puzzle we call an NFL team.  Next year’s group will be headlined by seniors Tajh Boyd,  Aaron Murray, and AJ McCarron and underclassmen like Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel (and after Matt Barkley’s bad decesion to stay for the senior year those  two will more likely come out than not).  It has more potential than this year’s class for sure, where the 8th best projected QB (Scott) went undrafted…

So, in my opinion no matter how this season plays out (again unless Gabbert suffers an early season ending injury), the new Jaguars front office can start Year 2 with an accurate answer for their biggest question. If Gabbert proves himself, the team can concentrate fully on re-shaping the defense in ’14.  If the answer is no – Dave Caldwell knows what he must do in that situation. So even if we must watch a 5-11 or worse season again, in the end of the day, the Jaguars are heading into a win-win situation!

- Zoltan Paksa

These three guys are coming together to make the Jaguars better than ever before.  Source: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

I wanted to wait until after the Jaguars front office and coaching staff was more setled until I gave my first impressions. Now that the team has a new GM, a head coach and new coordinators I can express my impression about the changes. Although I am mostly positive about the new guys who will run the show in Northern Florida, it wouldn’t be the Jaguars without making some (to be exact 2) head scratching choices.  Why?  Because Jaguars.

Luckily Dave Caldwell was not one, and that’s the best news of the new hires. His first press conferences was amazing, with just 4 words (“Even if he’s released”) he earned respect from the fanbase and praise from the press. Although he is young, Caldwell has guts that’s for sure. It was also a good sign from owner Shad Khan as well who said when took over the franchise that he would leave the football decisions to the experts. Khan tried to get Tebow in the last offseason but didn’t want to make the same mistake twice: hiring someone for a specific player like ex-head coach Mike Mularkey for Blaine Gabbert. Caldwell can do whatever he (and new head coach Gus Bradley) wants with the the roster. Nothing (except Tebow) is off the table. I liked the way he handled the QB question as well. Gabbert and Henne will get a shot to prove themselves this summer but we will see new candidates from the draft and free agency as well.

Gus Bradley is set to make the Jaguars better than competitive in games.  Source:  Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

I liked his head coach search and the element of surprise in it. Everybody penciled in Greg Roman to Jacksonville because he has close ties to Caldwell. Also everybody thought the Jaguars would follow the trend and pick an offensive minded head coach, it didn’t happen.  After the Eagles let Gus Bradley go and hired Chip Kelly as head coach, the Jaguars GM reached out to the then-defensive coordinator of the Seahawks. After a 12 hour interview process, Caldwell knew he had found his coach. The interview ended Thursday at 1 AM. Bradley was announced as the new head man in Jacksonville at 10 AM on the same day. There were 8 head coach openings among the 32 head coaches of the NFL. 7 went to offensive minded coaches while only Jacksonville picked a defensive one. That tells me Caldwell is not afraid to buck the trend.

The other big plus was the head coach himself. Last year the Jaguars got a man who might have lost his job in Atlanta if the Jaguars didn’t hire him. This year the team will be coached by someone who was a top 2 finalist in Philadelphia, was recommended by Eagles GM Howie Roseman to Caldwell and who is praised by players (Leon Washington, Russell Wilson and Matt Hasselback) and coaches (Pete Caroll and Monte Kiffin) alike. Dallas defensive coordinator Kiffin even compared Bradley to Mike Tomlin:

“He really is exceptional, you could tell. He’s not just a really, really smart coach; he’s got a great personality. He connects with the players really well. He reminds me of Mike Tomlin. We hired Mike at 29-years-old out of the University of Cincinnati. It didn’t take long to know that Mike was special, and I knew from Day 1 that Gus was special. He’ll be a head coach in the NFL. He’s got no panic. Some people do, it doesn’t mean they’re not really good coaches, but Gus, he’s special. When he interviews, he’ll knock your socks off. I’m not trying to pump him up, but I know what he is. He’s put it on tape up there.”

Bradley’s press conference was very much like Kiffin describes here. He knocked everybody out of their socks. The always complaining fanbase and press were really impressed with him. A fellow Hungarian Jaguars fan who watched the introduction wrote this just a few minutes into the press conference: “After 3 questions I’m sold. We’ll be in good hands.” Last year he hated Mularkey and OC Bob Bratkowski from the start. If his energy is transferred to his players on Sundays, we won’t complain about the effort for a while.

Bradley has already announced his coordinators. I have serious issues issues with his defensive coordinator choice Bob Babich (more on that in a moment). His offense will be organized by Jedd Fisch, the former offensive coordinator of the Miami Hurricanes. He ran a pro style, creative and innovative offense in Miami. He also has 9 years of NFL experience and worked together for a year with Bradley in ’10 (he was the QB coach back then). He has a reputation for creating an offensive scheme based on his talent pool.

Keeping Jerry Sullivan was big for the Jaguars.  Source:  Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

A few coaches from the old staff have already left. Some departures are a relief (like John Bonamego and Andy Heck), but some (like Greg Olson’s departure to Oakland, or Mel Tucker being the new defensive coordinator of the Bears) might hurt the team. There are two coaches who have chosen to stay.  Jerry Sullivan (wide receivers) and Mark Duffner (linebackers) are keys to helping the transition run smoothly.

There were 2 things which have upset me so far under the new regime. One of them is the arrival of Chris Polian. He’ll be the director of pro personnel here, and I just hope he has minor influences on Caldwell’s decisions. Chris has the reputation of having the (not very liked) personality of his father Bill Polian but with much less talent at his job. His high round picks were questionable at best (Jerry Hughes, Donald Brown, Tony Ugoh etc.) and some have said he was responsible for the extremely weak roster which lead the Peyton Manning-less Colts to a 2-14 record and the 1st pick back in 2011. So now you can see why I hope his influences will not weigh heavily on Caldwell.

The other (and maybe the biggest) problem is Bob Babich. Trust me, I looked around to get information about him and, with exception of having a very likable and media-friendly personality, found nothing good about him. Michael C Wright who was the Jaguars beat-writer for the Florida Times-Union and who has covered the Bears since 2010 for ESPN Chicago wrote that he is not impressed with him as a DC candidate, doesn’t think he is defensive coordinator material and Mark Duffner is a better position coach than him.

Ouch.

Babich was the defensive coordinator for the Bears and it was a mess. When he took over from then defensive coordinator Ron Rivera, the Bears were firth in total allowed yards and 3rd in points. In 2007 that fell to 18th and 21st then 21st and 5th in 2008. In his first 2 years he called the defensive plays and it went so terribly that Lovie Smith took that responsibility back in 2009. Babich produced these poor results with a much stronger defensive roster than the Jaguars currently have. He is far from a success story as a positional coach as well. He has failed to produce a decent SLB since Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs were there when Babich arrived. The latest 3rd LB, Nich Roach, will be a free agent this spring and is not considered a keeper in Chicago… Some say, I worry too much about of Babich since Bradley will run the show on defense, but last time I checked Lovie Smith was considered a really good defensive mind and Babich still managed to screw up the defense when he was his coordinator. If he gets the playcalling duties again, that will seriously worry me.

But even with Chris Polian and Bob Babich, my impressions about the new regime are mostly positive. I do believe the Jaguars found their General Manager and Head Coach for the coming years, but since the roster is maybe the worst in the NFL right now talent-wise plus I see no real solution at the QB position this season (expect maybe if the Jaguars can draft Geno Smith in April) there is a tough road ahead. But at least they seem to head in the right direction and after so many miserable and wasted seasons that alone is a big step forward.

- Zoltan Paksa

It’s bad when the ref facepalms you.  Source: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

It’s official. The Jaguars will have their worst record in franchise history. Black Monday is upon us and it’s almost certain we will see heads roll. The Jaguars appeared in yet another game where nobody would give them a chance to win it, yet they went down to the wire against the New England Patriots.  In the end they failed to make it again.  Now, in the end of their horrible journey, they face a team they have already beat. The two franchises are eerily similar.  The Titans have QB and head coaching issues, and are going through a disappointing season with 0 wins within the division. Some say the two Mikes’ (Jaguars HC Mike Mularkey and Titans HC Mike Munchak) fates will be on the line on Sunday. This is the last audition for a lot of people to convince the two owners – the furious Bud Adams and the mysterious Shad Khan – to give each of them one more chance for the ’13 season. Let’s dig deeper…
The Jaguars won the first game against the Titans 5 weeks ago 24-19. Since then a lot of things have changed. The Titans fired their offensive coordinator, Chris Palmer, right after the game and replaced him with then-QB coach Dowell Loggains, but the results are far from good since Jake Locker appears to be taking steps backward instead of forward. Their offensive line looks like another patchwork job, just the like the Jaguars’ but with much less success. Although the defense had some nice moments against the Jets, they were torn apart by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers with their biggest margin of victory in almost 20 years. The 2 best TEs will not play, even Chris Johnson is banged up, and everybody can see why the Jaguars have a pretty decent shot to finish their dreadful season with a victory.
Speaking of the visitors, the Jaguars have changed a lot in the last 5 weeks too. They claimed former Titan DE Jason Babin from Philadelphia and lost their biggest play maker on offense in Cecil Shorts to a concussion (by the way I’m still stunned Patrick Chung didn’t get fined for that). In week 12 the starting and the Nr. 2 RBs were Rashad Jennings and Jalen Parmele. Now both are on IR and the Jags have gotten a little more consistent production from Montell Owens who is paired with Richard Murphy now. 5 weeks ago only 2 WR were on the roster from the current squad, and that was the first game for Jordan Shipley. Now the Jaguars will give the other starting WR position to either Tony Clemons (1 in his career) or Mike Brown (no catches thus far). The Titans will see 3 new starting offensive linemen compared to the week 12 clash. The Jags also lost Dwight Lowery (who had the game clinching interception 5 weeks ago) but also got back Daryl Smith. And these were just the most significant changes for the 2 teams in 4 weeks!
In the two match-ups I really like the Jaguars defense against the Titans offense. Locker is struggling mightily and now Tennessee is facing the same questions as the Jaguars: did we pick the wrong guy? He has regressed in the past few weeks, and the best example was the Packers game when Locker was simply horrible. When Green Bay led 41-0, Locker was 7/20 for 66 yards and 2 picks. Of course his offensive line was abused by B.J. Raji but Locker could be blamed for some of the 7 sacks as well. If the Jaguars can repeat last week’s pass rush, Locker will be in trouble. Sure, Michael Roos will protect him from the left side, but I’m not so sure about the same with RT Byron Stingily. He is the 2nd best player on the offensive line, but he will face Jason Babin and Daryl Smith on occasion. But the real problems are at the middle. G Mitch Petrus was so bad that he was benched, and Fernando Velasco must move back from center to guard. Since Ken Amato and Kevin Matthews are out, Kyle DeVan will start at C, Velasco at LG and Deuce Lutui at RG. Until recently, only CJ Mosley showed some flashes from the Jaguars DTs, but Tyson Akualu has come to life lately (leading the team in sacks with 3.5 – yeah I know it’s a bit embarrassing in Week 17) and Terrance Knighton is starting to become better. The Jaguars created 3 sacks and 13 QB hits last week against the patriots offensive line and Tom Brady. If they play with the same effort, they could get even better results this time.

Can the Jaguars make Chris Johnson look foolish again?  Source:  Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

The Titans are starting to run out of play makers on offense, which could be an advantage for Mel Tucker’s defense. Taylor Thompson will be starting at TE, Damian Williams will most likely miss the game, Chris Johnson is banged up with an ankle injury, but expected to play on Sunday. He was limited very well by the Jaguars defense in the first game, and, with Daryl Smith and Jason Babin, the front 7 has gotten better since then. After missing last week’s game, Kendall Wright will play as well. Other than Wright, the most dangerous weapons will be Nate Washington and Kenny Britt. I expect another strong performance from Derek Cox (this game will be his last before hitting free agency), so he can take away 1 from the Britt-Wahsington-Wright trio. I know the Titans players will be fired up (or will be fired….) after last week’s disaster, but the Jaguars defense might limit them enough for a win.
Of course, the Jags’ offense must play better.  Until the Jets game the Jaguars always scored in the red zone. In the last 10 visits inside the 20 yard line they are 1-out of 10. Missed opportunities are a major problem.  Tom Brady and co said they were lucky last week to have a tie at halftime. They were right, the Jaguars could have lead 28-13 easily, but because of lack of offensive execution, they settled for 3 FGs – 1 of them was missed by Josh Scobee. Since the team will be without Cecil Shorts III it will be even harder to find the end zone. The problem is the Jaguars are in a worse situation than against the Jets 3 weeks ago. Back then Kevin Elliott was Blackmon’s partner at WR and Jordan Shipley was their primary backup. Now Shipley is still Blackmon’s 1st backup, which means we will see a totally inexperienced rookie (Clemons or Brown) start next to Blackmon. However, being the primary target might be a blessing in disguise for the Jaguars’ 1st round pick. He is leading all rookies in receiving yards (786, 20 more than Cleveland’s Josh Gordon) and he is 2nd in receptions behind Kendall Wright (the Baylor product has 62, Blackmon has 58 at this point). So at least this will be something to watch.
Just like the Titans, the Jaguars have a patchwork offensive line. 5 weeks ago Mike Brewster, Cameron Bradfield and Uche Nwaneri protected Henne, with minimal success- they allowed a season high 7 sacks to the Titans. This time Kamerion Wimbley and co will face Guy Whimper and an UDF rookie in his 3rd start (Austin Pasztor is actually looking promising at LG) and Steve Vallos.  One of the key matchups will be Derrick Morgan against Whimper. The former 1st round pick played pretty well last week, which should be another warning on the right side of the offensive line. Jurrell Cassey, Sen’ Derrick Marks and rookie Mike Martin will test the Jaguars’ interior offensive line as well.

I also wonder how the running game will perform on Sunday. The Jags have won twice out of four games with over 100 yards on the ground.  Since the the LB unit is banged up and Montell Owens and Richard Murphy have been quite effective lately, it could be another 100+ yard game on the ground.
I’m sure the two teams will show up to play for different reasons. Bud Adams is threatening jobs in Tennessee while the future of the Jaguars is equally uncertain. Many people are suggesting Shad Khan should blow the team up after the worst season in franchise history. Almost everybody is expecting GM Gene Smith to be dismissed on Monday. If the new regime opts for a blow up, we will see plenty of Jaguars greats playing their last time for Jacksonville. Brad Meester, Rashean Mathis, Greg Jones and Daryl Smith could be among them. Gene Smith’s first draft class is essentially doing a final job interview for the 32 teams. As I wrote earlier, the two head coaches are sitting in very hot seats at the moment and a victory could help make their case for another year staying at their current jobs.
One thing is for sure. The Jaguars are facing maybe their most important post season yet. It might be the worst (especially if someone named Tebow comes to town). But tomorrow players and coaches can make their case for the last time before their owner evaluates their work. Even with a victory, many will feel Khan’s wrath.
Prediction: Titans 17- Jaguars 20

- Zoltan Paksa