Gus Bradley loves coaching defense. Here the rookies are following his every move, look to the left, move to the left, look right, move right.

The Rookies showed up today at camp.  I can tell you from what I saw, the drafted rookies were getting a workout.  There isn’t much to really report, but what I saw:

• Matt Scott throws a nice pass. He looked better than Jordan Rodgers.
• Dwayne Gratz picked off a nice deflected pass.
• Denard Robinson is fast and quick. He was exciting.
• Luke Joeckel moves into position very quickly.

Well enough of what I saw, here look for yourself. Scroll over the images for my caption and click on the image for a big picture view.

Jerry Sullivan teaching the basics.

Ace Sanders pulls this one in

One on one, Johnathan Cyprien vs Denard Robinson

Johnathan didn’t let Denard beat him to the corner

Luke seals off his guy

I know this is just simple practice, but Luke stepped into this position so fast. In a blink, he was there.

Something I am interested in seeing more of, Denard Robinson getting the ball.

Something about Dwayne Gratz says “football player”. He was calling out coverage and tracking receivers making sure they were covered. We have to watch him.

Hope you enjoyed this little trip out in the rain. Sorry the images are a bit blurry, I was trying to shoot them through a plastic bag.

It sure was fun hearing the horn again and seeing coaches yell “Hurry Hurry”.  Football has begun waking from hibernation.

- Terry O’Brien

Jan 4, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas A

I want to show you how good this draft “probably” will turn out to be. I say that because I did a conditional probability study on it, and the results surprised me.  No one knows, not David Caldwell, not Gus Bradley really knows how this will turn out, but draft history can show us some probable outcomes.

Drafting a Tackle Early

First, taking a tackle in the first 5 draft spots has happened 15 times from 1980-2007.  Of those 15, 13 of them were the primary starter for their team for at least 5 years.  Nine of the 15 made the pro bowl numerous times. One that didn’t, Paul Gruber, played for Tampa Bay in the late 1980’s and 1990’s. Tampa Bay wasn’t very good, but Paul Gruber is in their ring of honor.

So we can say we have an 87% chance we just drafted a 5 year starter and a 60% chance we have a multiple pro bowl player in Luke Joeckel.  Bringing it home, there is a very high probability we have drafted no worse than a Eugene Monroe quality player and a good possibility of a Tony Boselli quality. There is a 13% chance of a Tony Mandarich, but that is only because there really was a Tony Mandarich.

Drafting five Defensive Backfield guys

I looked at the draft from 1980 – 2007 for DB’s selected in the range of 25-40, 50-75 and 170-220. This is equivalent to the guys we drafted this year. The probability that we have drafted at least one guy who will be a primary starter for 3 years is 90%.  I don’t know which of the five will make it, but the probability at least one does is 90%. The chance that two of the guys become 3 years primary starters is 53%.  There is a 24% chance one of them is voted to the all pro first team at least once in their career.  To bring this home, there is a 90% chance we have a Donovan Darius quality guy and a 24% chance we have a Rashean Mathis (in his prime) quality guy.  There is better than a 50% chance we have one Derek Cox quality and one Donovan Darius quality defensive backfield guys in the draft. I don’t know which ones they will be.

The other two, Ace and Denard

These guys look like trying to catch lightning in a bottle kind of picks. There is a very very low chance of them catching fire, about a 15% chance of either being a primary starter for 3 years or more and only a 6% chance of either one being a pro bowl player. But with two guys, there is a 28% chance one of the two of them hits. I think 28% is decent odds for guys like this. If they do catch on, it is because they are very productive and if either of these guys is that good, season tickets will be an easy sell.

Summary

In this draft, there is almost 90% certainty that we have at least two multi-year primary starters and a very good chance, over 50%, there are three. There is a 14% chance of four primary starters for three years or more. There is a 70% chance of one pro bowl player and a 14% chance of two pro bowl guys.

I would say if we have two starters, one in the pro bowl and three good rotational or situation guys, this is a good draft. It “probably” was this good.  There is a chance it is even better.

- Terry O’Brien

Apr 25, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M offensive tackle)  Source:  USA Today Sports

God Bless you David Caldwell.

Thank God we went second. I see so many questions below the second choice and have been so wrong in my opinion of the draft, it was a strange year. Some of the new General Mangers have made bold selections.

Mike Lombardi in Cleveland made  Barkevious Mingo a top draft choice? I wonder if Ozzie or the Steelers will eat them alive. The Steelers chose Jarvis Jones and they know linebackers in Pittsburgh. Would the Steelers have chosen Mingo over Jones? I don’t know, time will tell.  I would rather have Luke over Barkevious.

St. Louis trading up for a very very small guy? Will Tavon have a career or will he be blown up on his first real hit? I would worry a lot about that if I were Jeff Fisher.

Miami trading up for a part time player? Dion Jordan may not be a mistake, but was he worth  trading up for? I understand Dion Jordan was not on the field a lot in college. Would you have traded up for him if you needed a left tackle? This is the number 3 choice. Again, glad we took Luke.

The Bills bypass Geno Smith for E.J. Manuel? I don’t know what they are thinking. From what I watched of Geno Smith, he seemed a lot better than EJ Manuel.  Buffalo, are you sure about this?  Now the big question is what if Geno falls to the Jaguars?  Can we have Geno and Luke?  Would this be a good thing?

This was a very good draft for the Jaguars. Luke Joeckel is an excellent choice.  I can’t see anyone else I would have wanted more.

My initial impression is that the Arizona Cardinals did great with an offensive guard, but not Warmack? Interesting. The Oakland Raiders look like they did great trading down and having DJ Hayden on the corner. The Tennessee Titans did fantastic! They got their man Chance Warmack and there looks to be almost no downside risk in that selection.  DeAndre Hopkins to the Houston Texans is a wonderful place for DeAndre!   The Jets looked like they are getting better fast! How can Dee Milner and Sheldon Richardson not help them? The Buffalo Bills I thought did great, getting a trade but it looks like they could have waited until day 2, did they mess up an opportunity? The Vikings should have a pro bowl player somewhere in that mix.

But both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars snagged the best of this draft.  Making a wall at offensive line is a great strategy. Doing it with top talent is beautiful. I just don’t see how this is bad. Did we waste an opportunity at the 2 spot by drafting a right guard that can move to left tackle?  I believe in a good O-Line and I think we got much better today.  Again, there was no one else I would prefer.

Thank you David Caldwell!  You really have made those of us in Jacksonville very happy! I am glad you were here to make this selection.

- Terry O’Brien