Maurice Jones-Drew

Without question, #32 is the Jaguars’ most talented player.  He has been the face of the franchise for many years, and has had the misfortune of being in a Barry Sanders-like situation, being a premier Running Back on a perennially-bad team.  Maurice will be 28 years old at the start of next season, and entering the last year of a contract he has made very clear he is unhappy with.  With the dreaded 30 year old mark for running backs approaching quickly, and the franchise being by all accounts a few seasons from competing, the obvious worth of the Jaguars’ all-time leading rusher will be in his trade value.  The number one objective of the new GM (I think Gene Smith’s end is near) this coming offseason will be to find the best return possible for mojo, most likely draft picks, and then use them to try and jump start what has become a stagnant franchise.

Value: B

• Trade chip to collect future draft picks

Eugene Monroe

Eugene Monroe is the cornerstone of the Jagaurs’ offensive future. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Although the position by nature isn’t flashy, the #8 overall pick in the 2009 draft has undoubtedly been Gene Smith’s best-performing draft pick.  In his 4th season out of Virginia, he is now regarded as one of the best in the game today, evidenced by grading out as the #3 left tackle in the NFL last season by profoootballfocus.com At only 25 years old and playing at a premium position, Eugene will no doubt be a cornerstone of the Jaguars franchise for years to come.

Value: A+

• Pro Bowl caliber player at a premium position

Justin Blackmon

While his struggles early on have been well-documented, nearly everyone expects the immensely talented wide receiver to adjust to the NFL game and fulfill the high expectations that accompanied his high draft pick.  There’s no doubt Blackmon has had difficulty grasping the offense and building a rapport with quarterback Blaine Gabbert, but even through his struggles, his physical ability is still evident.  It will only be a matter of time before the former Oklahoma State Cowboy starts producing like the #1 receiver he is expected to become.

Value: A

• Blue-chip rookie with Pro Bowl caliber talent

Cecil Shorts III

Really the lone bright spot offensively this year, Cecil Shorts III has played suprisingly well considering the lack of talent surrounding him.  The 2nd year product out of Mount Union College created quite the buzz last year in training camp with nearly no production once the season began.  This year he has carried that momentum to Sundays, as he is on pace for 46 catches, 980 yards and 6 touchdowns.  While not eye-popping, considering the overall ineptitude of Jacksonville’s offense, these numbers are very impressive.  If he and Blackmon can continue to develop and provide a one-two punch outside, this franchise would greatly benefit from it.

Cecil Shorts is consistently producing this season. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Value: B+

• Young, emerging star

Marcedes Lewis

The former first round pick out of UCLA has had a very up and down career to this point, with his lone Pro Bowl season coming unsurprisingly in his contract year, netting him a large payday.  This naturally brought on even larger expectations. Lewis has not performed anywhere near his 2010 level since then, but is nevertheless a very talented all-around Tight End who is a powerful blocker and, when motivated, a great red-zone threat using his 6’6” frame.  While underperforming, Marcedes Lewis is still a valauble player in his prime for the Jaguars organization.

Value: B-

• Underperforming but immensely talented veteran

So there you have it.  With Jones-Drew holding more trade value than future production, the remaining 4 players are going to be the cornerstones offensively going forward.  While there are  ”question mark” players in Blaine Gabbert, Will Rackley and Laurent Robisnon that can all potentially step up their level of play and consistency and become players this franchise can rely on, they are just simply not at that point yet.  The next 7 weeks will be tough to stomach, but if we can add pieces to this core group of offensive players, next season just might be different.

Brad Barrell

Roger Goodell is most likely announcing the Jaguars’ draft pick first next year… Mandatory Credit: James Lang-US PRESSWIRE

Don’t believe me yet?  You will.

Everyone (myself included) has tried to be 100% supportive of Blaine Gabbert and his development, or at least his anticipated development.  You know all of the reasoning and justification that has been drilled in to the head’s of every Jaguar fan who questioned the pick after one of the many embarrassing performances over the last season and a half…  Blaine is the youngest quarterback in the league, he didn’t get an offseason because of the lock out, the coaching change is a setback, there aren’t enough playmakers around him, etc etc.  The decision makers at Everbank field are going to be Gabbert apologists and spin whatever they can to try and defend their selection, and frankly who can blame them?  Gene Smith knows all too well that his job is directly tied to Blaine’s success or failure.  All the excuses considered, NO ONE, not even the eternal optimists here in Jacksonville can say they have seen anything near the level of play from our current quarterback to warrant any faith in his future as an NFL player.

Here are the numbers. Unbiased, no excuses, no criticisms, just the numbers.

Out of 20 career games, sixteen (yes, 16!) games have produced less than 200 yards passing.  that’s 80% of Blaine’s starts as a pro.  Even more alarming, 5 of those 16, he threw for less than ONE HUNDRED YARDS.  Please, let that sink in.  in 25% of Gabbert’s starts, he couldn’t muster up enough passing yardage in the entire game to even cover the length of the football field one time.  He has as many 2 Touchdown games as he does 2 Interception games (3).  He finished last year as the 33rd rated passer in yards per game, yards per attempt, and completion percentage and Total QBR, worse than the likes of Curtis Painter and yes, even Tim Tebow (there, I said it!).  The entire offseason was then devoted to helping our young quarterback… The Jaguars added 3 known quarterback gurus and the best wide receiver coach in the NFL to our coaching staff, a double-digit touchdown producing WR in Laurent Robinson, and the consensus #1 wide receiver in the NFL draft and centered our entire team around helping Blaine’s development. These efforts have spring-boarded BG11′s numbers in 2012 to… wait for it…  33rd out of 32 teams in yards per game, yards per attempt, 31st in completion percentage and 29th in total QBR.

The painfully, ridiculously obvious truth is that young or not, Blaine Gabbert is not a starting caliber NFL quarterback.  To throw the age out of the argument, EIGHT quarterbacks drafted in either last year’s draft with Blaine Gabbert or this year’s draft after Blaine Gabbert have higher ratings than he does.  Literally 25% of the league has a starting quarterback with as much our less experience than Blaine but with better results.  None of these quarterbacks have MJD commanding 8 man fronts from opposing defenses, either.

Enter Matt Barkley.  This 6 foot 2 inch, 230 pound, prototype pocket passer that came in to the college ranks with all of the hype and expectations that came along with being a 5 star high school recruit in today’s game.  Barkley os one of the rare exceptions who not only met, but exceeded the once thought-to-be lofty goals set in front of him.   He finished his Junior season with some absolutely gaudy stats.  For example, he threw for more touchdowns and passing yards than the 2012 #1 pick Andrew Luck, as well as 3 less interceptions.  This kid is the real deal.  In drafting Matt Barkley, the Jaguars will finally have their QB of the future. Not a talented player who has a bad throwing motion like Leftwich, not a career back-up who can run but not throw like Garrard, and not a highly talented guy with all of the physical tools but none of the on-field production like Gabbert.  Barkley is a physically gifted and polished signal caller who has developed in a pro style system at USC and by all accounts his skill set will easily transition to the NFL.

The future face of the franchise? Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

In the NFL today, if you don’t have a top 5-7 QB in the league, you have almost no chance of winning the Super Bowl.  Jacksonville can’t let the bust that is Blaine Gabbert prevent them from pulling the trigger on a franchise-changing talent like Matt Barkley. Let’s not forget the Carolina panthers drafted quarterbacks in the 2nd and 6th round in 2009, and did not hesitate to take Cam Newton #1 overall just one year later.The Redskins gave up 3 first round picks for their franchise QB, and STILL drafted a QB in the 4th round.  Every year that we hopelessly pretend that Blaine Gabbert will be successful is one more wasted year.  The Jaguars organization can’t let one bad decision in drafting Blaine Gabbert cause another mistake in not drafting Matt Barkley.  He will rival Mark Brunell as Jacksonville’s best signal caller in franchise history.

Here’s to the Jaguars’ future pro bowler, Matt Barkley!!

Go Jags!!

- Brad Barrell

Here are my thoughts and analysis on the wide receivers and tight ends in week one against the Vikings:

The Good

• The offense as a whole -  The tempo, play-calling and even the formations were all noticeably improved from last year. The emphasis of installing a more pass-oriented offense was evident from the outset.  It’s easy to see the vision coach Mularkey has for the offensive unit, and our fan base should be anxious to see the improvement that is sure to follow as the team gains experience playing together.

• Cecil Shorts III – The 2nd year wideout from Mount Union University had garnered what most can now agree were unrealistically high expectations for a then rookie 4th round draft pick wide receiver paired with a rookie quarterback. He was only able to manage 2 receptions for 30 yards in his rookie campaign. He doubled his output in one game today, grabbing 4 catches for  74 yards and what was thought to be the game winning, 39 yard touchdown catch on a spectacular diving twisting catch with just 20 seconds remaining in the game. If he can consistently produce as he did today, the Jags receiving corps will be looked at as one of the deeper units in the league.

• Mercedes Lewis – The disappointment of last year’s performance by the Pro Bowler has tempered the expectations to a point where he’s become grossly undervalued. When Lewis is motivated, he is easily one of the 10 best tight ends in the NFL today. The 5 catches, 52 yards and a red zone touchdown were encouraging signs that he will be an integral part of Mike Mularkey’s tight end friendly offense.

Source: Bruce Kluckhohn-US PRESSWIRE

The Bad

• Dropped passes – the receivers didn’t do Blaine any favors in Minneapolis, dropping 5 passes, one of which was on the critical overtime drive on a slant pass by the newly-acquired Laurent Robinson. Dropped balls are drive-killers, and there will no doubt be an emphasis this week in practice on holding on to the ball.

• Justin Blackmon – Although there were no glaring drops by the much-hyped rookie wide receiver, there wasn’t the expected game-breaking impact that was shown all preseason. There were a more than a few plays where Blackmon looked lost, and a poorly run route in overtime allowed the defense to knock down an out route thrown navy Gabbert. He will no doubt improve, but at this point in his development, Justin is much more comfortable after the catch than before it.
  

  Blackmon simply wasn’t the same force he was during the preseason. Source: US-Presswire