Welcome to Jaguars Draft 2014 : To QB or NOT QB : 2007. There is no doubt that when the Jacksonville Jaguars draft 3rd in the 2014 NFL draft that there will be a QB available to them. Teddy Bridgewater. Blake Bortles. Johnny Manziel. One of them will be there. Even the casual Jags fan knows that QB is a position of need. There also could be one of the better pass rushers to come into the league for many years in Jadeveon Clowney also waiting to be picked.
The Jags have needed a DE for about the history of this franchise. Who should the Jags pick? Clowney, whom many feel will make an immediate impact? Or the QB that will hopefully wash the bile from our throats that was Blaine Gabbert. All come with some kind of visible flaw that could prevent them from ever being a true “franchise” player? Is it possible that the prudent move Dave Caldwell could make is trade out of this advantageous spot?
It has become very clear that a general manager that makes the mistake of drafting a QB that fails to hit will pretty much seal their fate along with their job security. For that reason, I am going to tackle this situation with a little science. Some statistical data to honor the tradition of “Those who ignore history are bound (or doomed) to repeat it”. I am going to go over the QB draft picks for the last ten years to get an idea if the mindset that I have had (that a serviceable QB could be drafted AFTER the first round) holds any water. I have made it clear in my “Gumbussy Mock Drafts” that I want Clowney if he is available. Would that be a mistake. Let’s see what recent history indicates. We’ve already gone over
The year is 2007. Overall there were eleven QBs drafted that year. Here’s the breakdown & stats.
Combined Career – 55 games played, 7,126 passing yds, 30 TDs, & 40 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 64.8. They have also combined for no Pro Bowls or any positive accomplishment at all.
Wow. All I can say is wow. Russell was out of the league after three miserable seasons, was arrested for drug abuse, and has never been able to f=get back in the league. Quinn, a free agent entering his 8th year, has played for 6 different teams. He has been given multiple opportunities to be an NFL starter and has constantly failed. This has been the first true example of how badly teams sometimes fail on the QBs selected in the first round. Let’s see how the rest of the draft went.
- Round Two thru Five – Kevin Kolb (2nd), John Beck (2nd), Drew Stanton (2nd), Trent Edwards (3rd), Isaiah Stanback (4th), Jeff Rowe (5th), & Troy Smith (5th)
Combined Career – 113 games played, 15,604 passing yds, 70 TDs, & 76 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 55.0. This group has one All Rookie Team member & a Super Bowl Championship (on the practice squad). This group includes one player with no NFL stats. This also includes a QB with no passing stats after being converted to WR.
Wow again. This is not a stellar QB class in 2007. Only two are still in the league, both as backups. Kolb is particularly interesting. He is the walking example of the backup who is forced into a short stint of action per the starter getting injured. He comes in and KILLS it. Suddenly, he is the hottest and most wanted QB in the league. Like Scott Mitchell, Rob Johnson, and most recently, Matt Flynn, the team that gives him the keys to their franchise watches in HORROR as the QB Drives it head first into a tree. Kolb has been in the league seven years. He has played in 34 games. In those seven years, Kolb has signed three contracts totalling almost $77 million. Now of course he hasn’t seen all that money after early releases but he still has seen what can only be defined as a ridiculous amount!
Combined Career –71 games played, 8,602 passing yds, 54 TDs, & 48 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 62.1. This group has achieved no accolades. This group surprisingly have all appeared on a season of HBO’s “Hard Knocks” television series.
This group of three are actually the best of the bunch. Moore has been a starter in the league and put up fair numbers but not a lot of wins. Thigpen is one of those backups that never gets cited but when called upon has always showed well. His career hasn’t gone as well as it should and it’s truly not his fault…just circumstances. Palmer is a career backup. All three were still signed to a team last year and only Thigpen is currently a free agent. Even though Palmer is waiting by the phone to confirm if the Chicago Bears will bring him back in 2014 for the final year of his contract, it must be nice to know he has accumulated another career as a QB coach and is the personal coach and trainer for potential #1 draft pick Blake Bortles.
Summary of the 2007 QB draft class:
First round selections – What can you say about these two QBs…Um…Brady Quinn is no Joe Montana, so Notre Dame QBs continue to underwhelm in the NFL. As for Jamarcus Russell…Um…This one is tough…Thanks for being another example of how Al Davis was killing his own franchise towards the end of his life…Oh…And thanks for introducing the term “Purple Drank” to my vocabulary and allowing me to hear Tom Brokaw try to say it! Sorry, but it has to be said…These guys STUNK!!!
Rounds two thru seven – This has been the first year I’ve chronicled that has supported my contention that the Jags could possibly find a QB past the first round. But it isn’t a real strong argument. One thing for sure. I would take a underachieving Kevin Kolb, an overachieving Matt Moore, and a never given a fair chance Tyler Thigpen over Russell or Quinn.
The verdict from this fourth experiment would indicate the Jags should definitely consider the option of holding off on QB at #3. But they better damn sure make the right pick or they will be questioned about the choice for years. I also love the option of trading down some so the pressure of the first round “bust” label won’t be weighing on our QB’s head. At least the 2007 QB class has introduced some options! See ya in 2008!
Has never tried Purple Drank…Michael McDonald.
If you own a Kevin Kolb jersey, burn it, take a pic, and send it to Twitter @gumbussy.