There is no doubt that when the Jacksonville Jaguars draft 3rd in the 2014 NFL draft that there will be a QB available to them. Teddy Bridgewater. Blake Bortles. Johnny Manziel. One of them will be there. Even the casual Jags fan knows that QB is a position of need. There also could be one of the better pass rushers to come into the league for many years in Jadeveon Clowney also waiting to be picked.
The Jags have needed a DE for about the history of this franchise. Who should the Jags pick? Clowney, whom many feel will make an immediate impact? Or the QB that will hopefully wash the bile from our throats that was Blaine Gabbert. All come with some kind of visible flaw that could prevent them from ever being a true “franchise” player? Is it possible that the prudent move Dave Caldwell could make is trade out of this advantageous spot?
It has become very clear that a general manager that makes the mistake of drafting a QB that fails to hit will pretty much seal their fate along with their job security. For that reason, I am going to tackle this situation with a little science. Some statistical data to honor the tradition of “Those who ignore history are bound (or doomed) to repeat it”. I am going to go over the QB draft picks for the last ten years to get an idea if the mindset that I have had (that a serviceable QB could be drafted AFTER the first round) holds any water. I have made it clear in my “Gumbussy Mock Drafts” that I want Clowney if he is available. Would that be a mistake. Let’s see what recent history indicates. We’ve already gone over 2004.
The year is 2005. Overall there were fourteen QBs drafted that year. Here’s the breakdown & stats.
- Round One – Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, & Jason Campbell.
Combined Career – 275 games played, 58,487 passing yds, 379 TDs, & 182 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 89.2. They have also combined for one Super Bowl championships, one Super Bowl MVP, one NFC MVP, & 4 Pro Bowls.
Most of the accolades are from Rodgers, but I was surprised how successful both Smith and Campbell have been. This was a class of running QBs with them combining for 3,957 rushing yds and 29 TDs.
- Round Two thru Five – Charlie Frye (3rd), Andrew Walter (3rd), David Greene (3rd), Kyle Orton (4th), Stefan Lefors (4th), Dan Orlovsky (5th), & Adrian McPherson (5th).
Combined Career – 137 games played, 24,023 passing yds, 117 TDs, & 116 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 69.6. This group has achieved no accolades. This group includes three players with no NFL stats.
This is a funky group with some interesting stories on and off the field. Andrew Walter retired in 2009, became a successful businessman, & is now running to be a US rep in Arizona. David Greene, who somehow lasted 4 years in the NFL yet accumulated no stats, was also an outstanding baseball player in high school. He recently appeared on a MLB-TV show called “The Next Knuckler”. He competed for a chance to be invited to Arizona’s spring training as a knuckle-ball pitcher. He finished second to former Seahawk QB Josh Booty. During Kyle Orton‘s NFL career, he has has to be back-up to both starting QBs from The University of Florida’s 2006 national championship (Chris Leak & Tim Tebow). Stefan Lefors was a child of two deaf parents. In 2007, because Charlie Frye was still so popular from his Akron University period, the mayor of Akron declared 11/05/07 as “Fry Day.” During Dan Orlovsky‘s 10 games played in the Detroit Lions 2008 infamous 0-16 season, Dan threw a 96 yd TD to Calvin Johnson, He also took a snap, stepped accidentally out of the back of the end zone for a safety, in a game that they ended up losing 12-10. But the most fascinating player was Adrian McPherson. During his 2003 junior year at FSU, McPherson was arrested for stealing a personal check from a Tallahassee business, forging a signature, and having a friend cash it for $3500. He was dismissed from the team. He was also charges with illegal gambling. During his trial, his lawyers contended that he was a victim of a cover-up, going all the way up to coach Bobby Bowden. It has been said that Bowden was hurt tremendously by the allegation. After being acquitted, McPherson then went to the Arena League and put up unbelievable stats until, even with his questionable character, he was drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the 5th round of 2005. During Adrian’s second season with the Saints, He somehow managed to get run over by a golf cart driven by the mascot for the Tennessee Titans…I’m serious!!! McPherson sued the Titans for $20 million dollars. It eventually was settled out of court with an unannounced amount. McPherson was eventually cut by the Saints. He has played between the Arena and Canadian league ever since. As of January 2014, he is on the current Calgary Stampeders CFL’s roster. None of this has anything to do with the purpose of this article. It was just to interesting to ignore. Back to the QB’s stats.
- Round Six & Seven – Derek Anderson (6th), James Kilian (7th), Matt Cassell (7th), & Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th).
Combined Career – 230 games played, 41,298 passing yds, 252 TDs, & 214 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 77.2. This group has achieved 2 Pro Bowls. This group includes one player with no NFL stats.
This group has had much more success than the previous years 6th & 7th. They’re even better than the round 2-5 of 2005. With Kilian not having any stats and Anderson really only having one good year, the primary success has come from the two 7th round picks…which is rare and pretty awesome.
Summary of the 2005 QB draft class:
First round selections – Only three taken. One, after waiting behind a future Hall-of-famer for a few years, is considered by some as the best QB in football. One was a virtual bust for almost five years before better coaching turned his career around. The other has been given multiple chances to take over a team, has been serviceable, but has never grabbed that brass ring. Not a bad class.
Rounds two thru seven – The breakdown of the remaining eleven QBs selected includes four who never saw the field, two who never reached their potential, and five who worked their way to starter yet weren’t able to retain it. The this particular year showed the quality still being taken early but some better bargains than 2004, especially in round seven.
The verdict from this second experiment would indicate the Jags should still take the QB at number three if they are hoping to find their savior. It also indicates if you perform your due diligence, there is a chance you can find some talent in the later rounds. See ya soon with an analysis of the QB class from 2006.
Undrafted fee Agent…Michael McDonald.
If you own a David Greene jersey, take a pic and send it to Twitter @gumbussy.