Sep 30, 2012; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu (93) before a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Everbank Field. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Jaguars 2010 NFL Draft Regraded, Via "With The First Pick"

It takes a while to see if draft picks will pan out.  Some, like Titus Young, seem to be automatic busts.  Others, like Alex Smith, take many years in order to mature.  The generally accepted rule, however, is that you don’t grade a draft until three years have past.  That puts the latest re-graded draft for the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 2010 draft.  The year the Jags drafted Tyson Alualu to be the future defensive tackle of the franchise with a “reach” in the first round.

Here’s the complete list of Jaguars draft picks from 2010, with the weighted score from “With The First Pick”:

Player School Position Pick(Rd) Raw Score Weighted Score Draft Value
Tyson Alualu California DT 10(1) 20.00 20.51 3.00
D’Anthony Smith Louisiana Tech DT 74(3) 4.17 4.95 -107.00
Larry Hart Central Arkansas DE 143(5) 2.92 3.98 -55.00
Austen Lane Murray State DE 153(5) 11.90 16.55 66.00
Deji Karim Southern Illinois RB 180(6) 5.42 7.90 8.00
Scotty McGee James Madison KR 203(6) 0.00 0.00 -43.00

The Jaguars were looking to revamp their defense and have really only seen production from Alualu and Lane.  Hart, Karim, and McGee are no longer with the team and D’Anthony Smith has never seen a snap due to injury.  All in all, things aren’t looking great from the 2010 draft class.

But what do all those numbers mean?  Here is the link to the complete explanation of With The First Pick’s values.  But for the basic methodology, just read this:

Going by the aforementioned assumptions a score is assigned to each player based on the number of game appearances.  A second score was assigned based on the percentage of those games that the player was a starter.  Extra score was given to those players that were awarded Pro-Bowl appearances and 1st Team All-Pro.  These scores were added together to give a “raw score”.  Weight is then added based on the pick being used to give us a total value score.  In addition, I have taken the “raw score” for each player and come up with a crude order of true draft position.  In that we can get a sense of whether a player is under or over drafted based on their raw score number versus their actual draft order.

So, what made the Jaguars’ 2010 draft so bad?  Let’s turn to the analysis from With The First Pick:

Tyson Alualu was considered a reach when he was drafted tenth overall in 2010. This system doesn’t consider him a reach as he has been a durable three year starter. That doesn’t exactly tell the tale as Alualu’s performance has been underwhelming for a pick so high. The sad news is that an underwhelming pick in the first round is almost the entire production of the Jaguar’s entire 2010 draft class, Austen Lane being the only other somewhat bright spot as a part time player at defensive end. Third round choice D’Anthony Smith spent his first two seasons injured. Jacksonville’s win totals have decreased from eight to five to two in the three years since this draft has taken place. It’s little wonder looking at the lack of value.

From the standpoint of a fan, I couldn’t agree more.  Personally, I have faith that Alualu can be a strong member of a good defensive front four.  Unfortunately, the Jaguars don’t have a good defensive front four.  So, instead of being a part of the solution, he is part of the problem.  If Alualu cannot play well next to newly acquired Roy Miller, then his time may be at an end as a starter for the Jaguars, or on the team altogether.

– Luke N. Sims

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