Sept 22 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Florida International Golden Panthers head coach Mario Cristobal talks with safety Johnathan Cyprien (7) in the second quarter in a game against the Louisville Cardinals at FIU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Jaguars 2013 NFL Draft “Probably” A Good One

Jan 4, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas A

I want to show you how good this draft “probably” will turn out to be. I say that because I did a conditional probability study on it, and the results surprised me.  No one knows, not David Caldwell, not Gus Bradley really knows how this will turn out, but draft history can show us some probable outcomes.

Drafting a Tackle Early

First, taking a tackle in the first 5 draft spots has happened 15 times from 1980-2007.  Of those 15, 13 of them were the primary starter for their team for at least 5 years.  Nine of the 15 made the pro bowl numerous times. One that didn’t, Paul Gruber, played for Tampa Bay in the late 1980’s and 1990’s. Tampa Bay wasn’t very good, but Paul Gruber is in their ring of honor.

So we can say we have an 87% chance we just drafted a 5 year starter and a 60% chance we have a multiple pro bowl player in Luke Joeckel.  Bringing it home, there is a very high probability we have drafted no worse than a Eugene Monroe quality player and a good possibility of a Tony Boselli quality. There is a 13% chance of a Tony Mandarich, but that is only because there really was a Tony Mandarich.

Drafting five Defensive Backfield guys

I looked at the draft from 1980 – 2007 for DB’s selected in the range of 25-40, 50-75 and 170-220. This is equivalent to the guys we drafted this year. The probability that we have drafted at least one guy who will be a primary starter for 3 years is 90%.  I don’t know which of the five will make it, but the probability at least one does is 90%. The chance that two of the guys become 3 years primary starters is 53%.  There is a 24% chance one of them is voted to the all pro first team at least once in their career.  To bring this home, there is a 90% chance we have a Donovan Darius quality guy and a 24% chance we have a Rashean Mathis (in his prime) quality guy.  There is better than a 50% chance we have one Derek Cox quality and one Donovan Darius quality defensive backfield guys in the draft. I don’t know which ones they will be.

The other two, Ace and Denard

These guys look like trying to catch lightning in a bottle kind of picks. There is a very very low chance of them catching fire, about a 15% chance of either being a primary starter for 3 years or more and only a 6% chance of either one being a pro bowl player. But with two guys, there is a 28% chance one of the two of them hits. I think 28% is decent odds for guys like this. If they do catch on, it is because they are very productive and if either of these guys is that good, season tickets will be an easy sell.


In this draft, there is almost 90% certainty that we have at least two multi-year primary starters and a very good chance, over 50%, there are three. There is a 14% chance of four primary starters for three years or more. There is a 70% chance of one pro bowl player and a 14% chance of two pro bowl guys.

I would say if we have two starters, one in the pro bowl and three good rotational or situation guys, this is a good draft. It “probably” was this good.  There is a chance it is even better.

- Terry O’Brien

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  • john.D

    It looks thst way to me…in the past you always we’re on the lower percentile with the kind of pics Gene brought in…… you were never really sure of the first round guy…… I like the fact they did what they said they were going to do…. not to mention the free agent rookies, chance of a starter in one of those guys….

  • LukeNSims

    Nice to have some numbers backing up the picks too. It’s always good to know that we’re heading in the right direction rather than struggling because we’re going for the no-name guys.

    • Terry O’Brien

      I agree Luke. I didn’t want to just be a “homer” and proclaim Jaguar success, so I dug into it. The strategy of taking 5 defensive backs increased the chances of 1-2 starters by quite a bit. It increased the chances of a pro bowl guy as well. The 2009 draft only has Eugene Monroe left. This draft “should” blow that one away. It might not, but history and probability says to bet on it.

  • David

    Great post, Terry. I really like the numbers you brought into light. If Joeckel ends up even being a Monroe quality player I will be happy. If we can get some kind of contribution from at least half of these guys I will consider this draft a success. I haven’t been very crazy about the last four draft classes. I’m genuinely excited about this one, however. The reason being is because it’s the first draft I’ve seen in almost a decade that seemed to have direction. It’s not because I think everyone is going to be pro bowl quality, but rather that Caldwell has a set plan for acquiring talent.

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