Nov 17, 2012; College Park, MD, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive end Bjoern Werner (95) during the game against the Maryland Terrapins at Byrd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Mock Drafts – Don’t Freak Out


It’s that time of year again. It seems Jaguar fans have been looking forward to the draft far too early the last few years. Part of that was some delusional excitement about Gene Smith’s drafting ability (myself a victim of that delusion) and the other part was the team’s inability to play a meaningful game late in the season.

Look at him. What did we really expect? Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

Look at him. What did we really expect?

With draft talk come mock drafts. With mock drafts come outrage. Particularly if you have players you really don’t want but consistently get mocked to your team in the first round. Derrick Morgan, Ryan Kerrigan, and Riley Reiff are all players over the last three years that would really rub me the wrong way every time I saw a talking head – Kiper or McShay mainly – unimaginatively send them to the Jags.

 

The two victims of this year’s “boring” Jaguars pick are Bjoern Werner and Damontre Moore. Most recently, Kiper mocked Moore to the Jags while McShay chose Werner. While both players are considered top ten prospects, it just seems too damn easy and downright lazy to choose them for the Jaguars. I’m no scout, but give me Barkevious Mingo or Ziggy Ansah over those two. Hell, if Geno Smith is at two take him.

 

Please be at 2. Please be at 2… Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Please be at 2. Please be at 2…

If you’re in the same boat as me and believe in flawed cause-and-effect, take solace in this – the Jaguars will almost assuredly NOT pick Damontre Moore or Bjoern Werner. Let’s take a look at the development of Kiper and McShay’s mock drafts over the last three years.

2010 Mock Drafts        
Version 1 2 3 4 5
Todd
McShay
Bruce Carter
OLB, N. Carolina
Derrick Morgan
DE, Ga Tech
Earl Thomas
S, Texas
Earl Thomas
S, Texas
C.J. Spiller
RB, Clemson
Mel
Kiper
Jason Pierre-Paul
DE, S. Florida
Derrick Morgan
DE, Ga Tech
Derrick Morgan
DE, Ga Tech
C.J. Spiller
RB, Clemson
C.J. Spiller
RB, Clemson
2011 Mock Drafts        
Version 1 2 3 4 5
Todd
McShay
Ryan Mallet
QB, Arkansas
Ryan Mallet
QB, Arkansas
Adrian Clyborn
DE, Iowa
Aldon Smith
DE, Missouri
Ryan Kerrigan
DE, Purdue
Mel
Kiper
Adrian Clyborn
DE, Iowa
Aldon Smith
DE, Missouri
Aldon Smith
DE, Missouri
Aldon Smith
DE, Missouri
Ryan Kerrigan
DE, Purdue
2012 Mock Drafts        
Version 1 2 3 4 5
Todd
McShay
Quinton Coples
DE, N. Carolina
Quinton Coples
DE, N. Carolina
Melvin Ingram
DE, S. Carolina
Riley Reiff
OT, Iowa
Melvin Ingram
DE, S. Carolina
Mel
Kiper
Quinton Coples
DE, N. Carolina
Quinton Coples
DE, N. Carolina
Quinton Coples
DE, N. Carolina
Melvin Ingram
DE, S. Carolina
Fletcher Cox
DT, Miss. St.

So instead of getting frustrated over picks that are a virtual certainty to not occur, focus more on mock drafts done by people closer and more in-tune with the Jaguars situation. Our own Luke and Jason pick players that match Gus Bradley’s new system and philosophy better than Moore and Werner. Over the last three years, despite having at least 5 shots at making the pick, Kiper and McShay have not correctly mocked a player to the Jaguars. Granted, picks later in the first round are hard to project, especially with trades and having to deal with Gene Smith’s assessment of “value,” but both of these draft experts basically honed in on a need the Jaguars had and picked whoever they thought was the best player – not the player who fit the system the best.

As for my mock draft, I’ll post that comedic masterpiece sometime after the combine.

 

- Daniel Lago

 

Tags: Bjoern Werner Damontre Moore Jacksonville Jaguars Mock Draft NFL Mock Draft 2013

  • LukeNSims

    Why in the world would they mock Spiller to us? I really wouldn’t have minded getting Kerrigan though!

    • Daniel Lago

      Ha, I’m pretty sure the Spiller pick was all Vic Ketchman’s doing. I remember he was on that train for a while on Ask Vic.