Who will the Jaguars draft with the second selection in the 2013 draft? I don’t know, but history may be able to tell us.
In the last 20 years, 1992 – 2012, the second selection in the draft has been:
4 Quarterbacks, 4 Offensive Tackles, 4 Linebackers, 3 Running Backs, 2 Wide Receivers, 2 Defensive Ends, and 2 Defensive Tackles. There are no Guards, no Centers, no Tight Ends, no Defensive Backs. Ok, so the second overall choice is about the impact players. This is no surprise and it probably won’t change this year. The Jaguars will likely choose from these 7 positions.
Of the 21 selections, 12 of them made the Pro-Bowl. The good news is, we can expect a pro-bowl caliber player, if Dave Caldwell selects properly. So let’s see where our pro-bowl player is coming from.
Maybe it will be a Quarterback, a Receiver or a Running Back, but this year it doesn’t look probable. History shows only one of the 4 QBs made it, 2 of the three Running Backs and 1 of the two Receivers. These are higher risk choices and the Jaguars, I am pretty sure, are not going here. It doesn’t look like Pro-Bowl pickings in this group of players.
So that means the Jaguars will probably go Linebacker, Left Tackle, Defensive End or Defensive Tackle. History shows that both Defensive Tackles taken as #2 overall were pro-bowl guys and 1 of the two Defensive Ends taken made the Pro-Bowl. The Defensive End who didn’t is Chris Long who is now 33rd on the active most sacks list. I think I’d take Chris Long right now. Three of the 4 Linebackers made Pro-Bowl.
I don’t know if the Jaguars will go Left Tackle but only 2 of the four taken made the Pro-Bowl. I am guessing Eugene Monroe gets signed and the Jaguars don’t go to the draft for this position.
So the good news is the Jaguars will probably go Linebacker, Defensive End or Defensive Tackle and if they do, we probably land a Pro-Bowl guy. 75% of the time these positions turn into Pro-Bowl guys. You would have to miss really really bad to whif here. That means we are drafting Star Lotulelei or Bjoern Werner or Damontre Moore or Jarvis Jones.
I don’t know what will happen between now and the draft but if I had to choose, I think it might be Bjoern. He gives me the best sense of developing into a Pro-Bowl kind of guy. That is just my thought and I am probably wrong but I hope Dave Caldwell gets it right.
– Terry O’Brien