I was thinking about Chad Henne vs Blaine Gabbert for some time while procrastinating on writing my thesis (again) when it occurred to me that there is nothing better than the numbers to tell us what’s up. Sure, Gabbert has had much more playing time than Henne, but we can extrapolate on those numbers, can’t we?
- 58.3% for Gabbert
- 55.7% for Henne
- 1,662 yards for Gabbert. We’ll call it 1,6662 in 7.5 games, or 221.6 yards per game.
- 830 yards for Henne. We’ll call it 830 yards in 3.5 games, or 237 yards per game.
- Gabbert has 9
- Henne has 7
- Gabbert has 6
- Henne has 2
So, who is better? Henne is producing more touchdowns with less time on the field (assuming my rough 3.5 games to be accurate) and chewing up yards at a slightly better rate than Gabbert all while completing less throws. So, is he actually playing better?
Gabbert has his nine touchdowns on 278 attempts this season (3.2% of his passes). Henne, however, has seven touchdowns on only 97 pass attempts (7.2% of his passes). That’s a pretty good number. Further, Henne is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and 15 yards per completion compared to Gabbert’s six yards per attempt and 10.2 yards per completion. Even when hitting less passes, Henne is still going to outproduce Gabbert after just a few throws.
Even counting the less than mediocre Oakland game, Henne is outproducing Gabbert in every category that matters in a game. Will he have bad games? Yes. But his good games – like the past two weeks – more than make up for his lack of efficiency in those bad games.
Of course, if he isn’t winning then it doesn’t really matter at all. Speaking of that:
Winning percentage as Starter in ’12:
- 10% for Gabbert
- 1000% for Henne
Who said anything about being selective in my data?
- Luke N. Sims
You can also find me on Twitter @LukeNSims